Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 60% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 2
NFL Week 2 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 2 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Why FSN leans Atlanta Falcons
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Atlanta Falcons 59% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Baltimore Ravens 73% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Chicago Bears 59% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Houston Texans
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Houston Texans 82% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. New England Patriots 73% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Green Bay Packers 77% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 70% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Philadelphia Eagles 74% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Jacksonville Jaguars 55% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Chargers 81% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Seattle Seahawks 86% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Dallas Cowboys 61% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. San Francisco 49ers 81% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Indianapolis Colts 51% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Los Angeles Rams 88% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 2 Confidence Picks
16 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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16
Los Angeles Rams88% FSN win probability · Very High -
15
Seattle Seahawks86% FSN win probability · Very High -
14
Houston Texans82% FSN win probability · Very High -
13
San Francisco 49ers81% FSN win probability · Very High -
12
Los Angeles Chargers81% FSN win probability · Very High -
11
Green Bay Packers77% FSN win probability · High -
10
Philadelphia Eagles74% FSN win probability · High -
9
Baltimore Ravens73% FSN win probability · High -
8
New England Patriots73% FSN win probability · High -
7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers70% FSN win probability · High -
6
Dallas Cowboys61% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Buffalo Bills60% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
Chicago Bears59% FSN win probability · Moderate -
3
Atlanta Falcons59% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
Jacksonville Jaguars55% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Indianapolis Colts51% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 2 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Los Angeles Rams 88% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
FSN stores the final pregame probability before kickoff. Once games finish, those frozen predictions become the model’s real 2026 track record.
FSN NFL Week 2 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 2 selection is Los Angeles Rams at 88%. The tightest favorite is Indianapolis Colts at 51%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Los Angeles Rams | NYG at LAR | 88% | Very High |
| 15 | Seattle Seahawks | SEA at ARI | 86% | Very High |
| 14 | Houston Texans | CIN at HOU | 82% | Very High |
| 13 | San Francisco 49ers | MIA at SF | 81% | Very High |
| 12 | Los Angeles Chargers | LV at LAC | 81% | Very High |
| 11 | Green Bay Packers | GB at NYJ | 77% | High |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | PHI at TEN | 74% | High |
| 9 | Baltimore Ravens | NO at BAL | 73% | High |
| 8 | New England Patriots | PIT at NE | 73% | High |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | CLE at TB | 70% | High |
| 6 | Dallas Cowboys | WAS at DAL | 61% | Moderate |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | DET at BUF | 60% | Moderate |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | MIN at CHI | 59% | Moderate |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons | CAR at ATL | 59% | Toss-up |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | JAX at DEN | 55% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Indianapolis Colts | IND at KC | 51% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 2 this way
16 NYG at LAR Los Angeles Rams — 88%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Los Angeles Rams 88% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →15 SEA at ARI Seattle Seahawks — 86%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Seattle Seahawks 86% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →14 CIN at HOU Houston Texans — 82%
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Houston Texans 82% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 MIA at SF San Francisco 49ers — 81%
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. San Francisco 49ers 81% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 LV at LAC Los Angeles Chargers — 81%
Los Angeles Chargers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Chargers 81% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 GB at NYJ Green Bay Packers — 77%
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Green Bay Packers 77% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 PHI at TEN Philadelphia Eagles — 74%
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Philadelphia Eagles 74% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 NO at BAL Baltimore Ravens — 73%
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Baltimore Ravens 73% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 PIT at NE New England Patriots — 73%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. New England Patriots 73% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 CLE at TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 70%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 70% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 WAS at DAL Dallas Cowboys — 61%
Dallas Cowboys owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Dallas Cowboys 61% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 DET at BUF Buffalo Bills — 60%
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 60% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 MIN at CHI Chicago Bears — 59%
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Chicago Bears 59% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 CAR at ATL Atlanta Falcons — 59%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Atlanta Falcons 59% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 JAX at DEN Jacksonville Jaguars — 55%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Jacksonville Jaguars 55% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 IND at KC Indianapolis Colts — 51%
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Indianapolis Colts 51% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule →