Why FSN leans Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Green Bay Packers 67% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 8
NFL Week 8 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 8 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Your Pick Sheet
Pick every Week 8 winner
FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Buffalo Bills 74% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Cincinnati Bengals 86% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Dallas Cowboys 71% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Detroit Lions 53% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Jacksonville Jaguars 82% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New York Jets
New York Jets is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. New York Jets 53% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Pittsburgh Steelers 72% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Los Angeles Rams 79% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Denver Broncos 56% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. New England Patriots 82% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Washington Commanders 50% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Seattle Seahawks 71% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 8 Confidence Picks
14 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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14
Cincinnati Bengals86% FSN win probability · Very High -
13
Jacksonville Jaguars82% FSN win probability · Very High -
12
New England Patriots82% FSN win probability · Very High -
11
Los Angeles Rams79% FSN win probability · Very High -
10
Buffalo Bills74% FSN win probability · High -
9
Pittsburgh Steelers72% FSN win probability · High -
8
Dallas Cowboys71% FSN win probability · High -
7
Seattle Seahawks71% FSN win probability · High -
6
Green Bay Packers67% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Denver Broncos56% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers56% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
3
Detroit Lions53% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
New York Jets53% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Washington Commanders50% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 8 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Cincinnati Bengals 86% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
Straight-up favorite accuracy from stored pregame FSN predictions this season. Calibration by probability band is tracked separately.
FSN NFL Week 8 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 8 selection is Cincinnati Bengals at 86%. The tightest favorite is Washington Commanders at 50%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cincinnati Bengals | TEN at CIN | 86% | Very High |
| 13 | Jacksonville Jaguars | IND at JAX | 82% | Very High |
| 12 | New England Patriots | NE at MIA | 82% | Very High |
| 11 | Los Angeles Rams | LAC at LAR | 79% | Very High |
| 10 | Buffalo Bills | BAL at BUF | 74% | High |
| 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | CLE at PIT | 72% | High |
| 8 | Dallas Cowboys | ARI at DAL | 71% | High |
| 7 | Seattle Seahawks | CHI at SEA | 71% | High |
| 6 | Green Bay Packers | CAR at GB | 67% | Moderate |
| 5 | Denver Broncos | KC at DEN | 56% | Toss-up |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ATL at TB | 56% | Toss-up |
| 3 | Detroit Lions | MIN at DET | 53% | Toss-up |
| 2 | New York Jets | LV at NYJ | 53% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Washington Commanders | PHI at WAS | 50% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 8 this way
14 TEN at CIN Cincinnati Bengals — 86%
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Cincinnati Bengals 86% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 IND at JAX Jacksonville Jaguars — 82%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Jacksonville Jaguars 82% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 NE at MIA New England Patriots — 82%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. New England Patriots 82% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 LAC at LAR Los Angeles Rams — 79%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Los Angeles Rams 79% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 BAL at BUF Buffalo Bills — 74%
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Buffalo Bills 74% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 CLE at PIT Pittsburgh Steelers — 72%
Pittsburgh Steelers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Pittsburgh Steelers 72% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 ARI at DAL Dallas Cowboys — 71%
Dallas Cowboys owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Dallas Cowboys 71% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 CHI at SEA Seattle Seahawks — 71%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Seattle Seahawks 71% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 CAR at GB Green Bay Packers — 67%
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Green Bay Packers 67% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 KC at DEN Denver Broncos — 56%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Denver Broncos 56% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 ATL at TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 56%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 MIN at DET Detroit Lions — 53%
Detroit Lions is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Detroit Lions 53% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 LV at NYJ New York Jets — 53%
New York Jets is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. New York Jets 53% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 PHI at WAS Washington Commanders — 50%
Washington Commanders is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Washington Commanders 50% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule → Play the Field Goal Kicking Game →