Why FSN leans Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Green Bay Packers 69% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 8
NFL Week 8 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 8 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Your Pick Sheet
Pick every Week 8 winner
FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Buffalo Bills 67% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Cincinnati Bengals 69% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Dallas Cowboys 61% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Detroit Lions 66% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Jacksonville Jaguars 70% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New York Jets
New York Jets is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. New York Jets 51% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Pittsburgh Steelers 74% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 59% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Los Angeles Rams 77% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Denver Broncos 63% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. New England Patriots 76% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Philadelphia Eagles 63% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Seattle Seahawks 79% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 8 Confidence Picks
14 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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14
Seattle Seahawks79% FSN win probability · Very High -
13
Los Angeles Rams77% FSN win probability · High -
12
New England Patriots76% FSN win probability · High -
11
Pittsburgh Steelers74% FSN win probability · High -
10
Jacksonville Jaguars70% FSN win probability · High -
9
Cincinnati Bengals69% FSN win probability · High -
8
Green Bay Packers69% FSN win probability · High -
7
Buffalo Bills67% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
Detroit Lions66% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Philadelphia Eagles63% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
Denver Broncos63% FSN win probability · Moderate -
3
Dallas Cowboys61% FSN win probability · Moderate -
2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers59% FSN win probability · Moderate -
1
New York Jets51% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 8 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Seattle Seahawks 79% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
FSN stores the final pregame probability before kickoff. Once games finish, those frozen predictions become the model’s real 2026 track record.
FSN NFL Week 8 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 8 selection is Seattle Seahawks at 79%. The tightest favorite is New York Jets at 51%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Seattle Seahawks | CHI at SEA | 79% | Very High |
| 13 | Los Angeles Rams | LAC at LAR | 77% | High |
| 12 | New England Patriots | NE at MIA | 76% | High |
| 11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | CLE at PIT | 74% | High |
| 10 | Jacksonville Jaguars | IND at JAX | 70% | High |
| 9 | Cincinnati Bengals | TEN at CIN | 69% | High |
| 8 | Green Bay Packers | CAR at GB | 69% | High |
| 7 | Buffalo Bills | BAL at BUF | 67% | Moderate |
| 6 | Detroit Lions | MIN at DET | 66% | Moderate |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | PHI at WAS | 63% | Moderate |
| 4 | Denver Broncos | KC at DEN | 63% | Moderate |
| 3 | Dallas Cowboys | ARI at DAL | 61% | Moderate |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ATL at TB | 59% | Moderate |
| 1 | New York Jets | LV at NYJ | 51% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 8 this way
14 CHI at SEA Seattle Seahawks — 79%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Seattle Seahawks 79% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 LAC at LAR Los Angeles Rams — 77%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Los Angeles Rams 77% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 NE at MIA New England Patriots — 76%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. New England Patriots 76% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 CLE at PIT Pittsburgh Steelers — 74%
Pittsburgh Steelers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Pittsburgh Steelers 74% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 IND at JAX Jacksonville Jaguars — 70%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Jacksonville Jaguars 70% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 TEN at CIN Cincinnati Bengals — 69%
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Cincinnati Bengals 69% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 CAR at GB Green Bay Packers — 69%
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Green Bay Packers 69% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 BAL at BUF Buffalo Bills — 67%
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Buffalo Bills 67% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 MIN at DET Detroit Lions — 66%
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Detroit Lions 66% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 PHI at WAS Philadelphia Eagles — 63%
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Philadelphia Eagles 63% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 KC at DEN Denver Broncos — 63%
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Denver Broncos 63% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 ARI at DAL Dallas Cowboys — 61%
Dallas Cowboys owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Dallas Cowboys 61% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 ATL at TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 59%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 59% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 LV at NYJ New York Jets — 51%
New York Jets is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. New York Jets 51% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule →