What the simulations produced
Average score—
Median margin—
Overtime / tie path—
Simulation spread—
FSN SMART SIM
NFL Game Simulator
Run thousands of simulations for any NFL matchup. FSN blends team strength with real player production, quarterback form, injuries, recent performance, EPA/CPOE, rest, venue and matchup context — then shows you exactly what moved the prediction.
10,000 sims defaultReal player dataTransparent factorsPregame snapshots
MODEL
FSN-SIM-1.0
Server-built matchup inputs + browser Monte Carlo simulation.
Data updated 53 minutes ago
Seattle Seahawks
SEA
24
67% win
PROJECTED
10,000 simulations
Thu, Oct 15 · 8:15 PM ET
VS
Empower Field at Mile High
Denver Broncos
DEN
20
33% win
SIMULATIONS
DATA COVERAGE
Excellent
Key matchup drivers
Quarterbacks and injuries
Environment and model inputs
HOW IT WORKS
A prediction tool that shows its work
FSN begins with its opponent-adjusted team rating, then layers in smaller matchup adjustments from recent results, weekly EPA/CPOE efficiency, quarterback efficiency, current injury reports, pass rush and interceptions, kicking, rest, venue and travel. Market spread/total data is used only as a capped reality check when it exists. The resulting expected margin and total become the center of a score distribution that the browser samples thousands of times.
The simulator is probabilistic, not a claim that a game will finish at one exact score. A 64% favorite still loses roughly one out of three comparable simulations. Football remains delightfully rude to certainty.
How FSN weekly predictions update
Do NFL Week predictions recalculate after games are played?
Yes. Future matchups are rebuilt from the latest available team ratings, current-season results, weekly player and team efficiency data, injuries and matchup context. A Week 2 forecast can use Week 1 data; a Week 5 forecast can use Weeks 1–4.
Does FSN change an old prediction after kickoff?
No. Once kickoff passes, FSN uses the final stored pregame Smart Simulator snapshot for the historical weekly page. That prevents future information from leaking backward into old predictions.
Is the projected score supposed to be exact?
No. The projected score is the center of a probability distribution. The Monte Carlo simulation samples thousands of plausible scoring outcomes around that expectation to estimate win probability and score ranges.
Does FSN use betting lines to make the prediction?
Market spread and total data can be used as a deliberately capped sanity check when available, but they are not the primary model. FSN’s team, player, injury and matchup inputs drive the forecast.