FSN SMART SIM · 2026 WEEK 3

NFL Week 3 Predictions

Every 2026 NFL Week 3 matchup, projected with FSN’s Smart Game Simulator. Compare predicted winners, win probabilities and projected scores, then open any upcoming matchup to run 1,000, 10,000 or 50,000 simulations.

10,000 sims defaultReal player dataTransparent factorsPregame snapshots

MODEL FSN-SIM-1.0

Live forecasts update until kickoff; completed games keep their last pregame snapshot.

Data updated 25 minutes ago

NFL PREDICTIONS Week 3 Sep 24–Sep 28

2026 NFL WEEK 3

NFL Week 3 Predictions: Every Game

These are server-rendered FSN model forecasts, not sportsbook picks. Upcoming games continue to update as new results, player data and injury information become available. Once a game starts, its last pregame forecast is frozen for transparent historical tracking.

Thu, Sep 24 · 8:15 PM ET FINAL

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers Prediction

ATLAtlanta Falcons 18

GBGreen Bay Packers 26

FSN PICK Green Bay Packers 77%

FSN gives the Green Bay Packers a 77% win probability against the Atlanta Falcons, with a projected score of Atlanta Falcons 18, Green Bay Packers 26. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Green Bay Packers.

Actual result Atlanta Falcons 35, Green Bay Packers 14 Upset / miss

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Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills Prediction

LACLos Angeles Chargers 17

BUFBuffalo Bills 33

FSN PICK Buffalo Bills 93%

FSN gives the Buffalo Bills a 93% win probability against the Los Angeles Chargers, with a projected score of Los Angeles Chargers 17, Buffalo Bills 33. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Buffalo Bills.

Actual result Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns Prediction

CARCarolina Panthers 26

CLECleveland Browns 23

FSN PICK Carolina Panthers 61%

FSN gives the Carolina Panthers a 61% win probability against the Cleveland Browns, with a projected score of Carolina Panthers 26, Cleveland Browns 23. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Carolina Panthers.

Actual result Carolina Panthers 18, Cleveland Browns 21 Upset / miss

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Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

New York Jets at Detroit Lions Prediction

NYJNew York Jets 18

DETDetroit Lions 30

FSN PICK Detroit Lions 86%

FSN gives the Detroit Lions a 86% win probability against the New York Jets, with a projected score of New York Jets 18, Detroit Lions 30. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Detroit Lions.

Actual result New York Jets 24, Detroit Lions 31 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts Prediction

HOUHouston Texans 24

INDIndianapolis Colts 25

FSN PICK Indianapolis Colts 54%

FSN gives the Indianapolis Colts a 54% win probability against the Houston Texans, with a projected score of Houston Texans 24, Indianapolis Colts 25. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Houston Texans.

Actual result Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction

NENew England Patriots 17

JAXJacksonville Jaguars 22

FSN PICK Jacksonville Jaguars 69%

FSN gives the Jacksonville Jaguars a 69% win probability against the New England Patriots, with a projected score of New England Patriots 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 22. The largest current model driver is epa offense / defense efficiency, which leans toward Jacksonville Jaguars.

Actual result New England Patriots 6, Jacksonville Jaguars 35 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins Prediction

KCKansas City Chiefs 29

MIAMiami Dolphins 18

FSN PICK Kansas City Chiefs 85%

FSN gives the Kansas City Chiefs a 85% win probability against the Miami Dolphins, with a projected score of Kansas City Chiefs 29, Miami Dolphins 18. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Kansas City Chiefs.

Actual result Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants Prediction

TENTennessee Titans 18

NYGNew York Giants 23

FSN PICK New York Giants 69%

FSN gives the New York Giants a 69% win probability against the Tennessee Titans, with a projected score of Tennessee Titans 18, New York Giants 23. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward New York Giants.

Actual result Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction

CINCincinnati Bengals 22

PITPittsburgh Steelers 19

FSN PICK Cincinnati Bengals 61%

FSN gives the Cincinnati Bengals a 61% win probability against the Pittsburgh Steelers, with a projected score of Cincinnati Bengals 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 19. The largest current model driver is venue / home field, which leans toward Pittsburgh Steelers.

Actual result Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 Upset / miss

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Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders Prediction

SEASeattle Seahawks 29

WASWashington Commanders 14

FSN PICK Seattle Seahawks 92%

FSN gives the Seattle Seahawks a 92% win probability against the Washington Commanders, with a projected score of Seattle Seahawks 29, Washington Commanders 14. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Seattle Seahawks.

Actual result Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33 Upset / miss

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Sun, Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET FINAL

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers Prediction

ARIArizona Cardinals 15

SFSan Francisco 49ers 29

FSN PICK San Francisco 49ers 89%

FSN gives the San Francisco 49ers a 89% win probability against the Arizona Cardinals, with a projected score of Arizona Cardinals 15, San Francisco 49ers 29. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward San Francisco 49ers.

Actual result Arizona Cardinals 30, San Francisco 49ers 36 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET FINAL

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction

MINMinnesota Vikings 24

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers 20

FSN PICK Minnesota Vikings 64%

FSN gives the Minnesota Vikings a 64% win probability against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with a projected score of Minnesota Vikings 24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Minnesota Vikings.

Actual result Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET FINAL

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys Prediction

BALBaltimore Ravens 26

DALDallas Cowboys 23

FSN PICK Baltimore Ravens 63%

FSN gives the Baltimore Ravens a 63% win probability against the Dallas Cowboys, with a projected score of Baltimore Ravens 26, Dallas Cowboys 23. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Baltimore Ravens.

Actual result Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET FINAL

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints Prediction

LVLas Vegas Raiders 20

NONew Orleans Saints 25

FSN PICK New Orleans Saints 71%

FSN gives the New Orleans Saints a 71% win probability against the Las Vegas Raiders, with a projected score of Las Vegas Raiders 20, New Orleans Saints 25. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward New Orleans Saints.

Actual result Las Vegas Raiders 35, New Orleans Saints 27 Upset / miss

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Sun, Sep 27 · 8:20 PM ET FINAL

Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos Prediction

LARLos Angeles Rams 22

DENDenver Broncos 19

FSN PICK Los Angeles Rams 63%

FSN gives the Los Angeles Rams a 63% win probability against the Denver Broncos, with a projected score of Los Angeles Rams 22, Denver Broncos 19. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Los Angeles Rams.

Actual result Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30 Upset / miss

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Mon, Sep 28 · 8:15 PM ET FINAL

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears Prediction

PHIPhiladelphia Eagles 22

CHIChicago Bears 25

FSN PICK Chicago Bears 62%

FSN gives the Chicago Bears a 62% win probability against the Philadelphia Eagles, with a projected score of Philadelphia Eagles 22, Chicago Bears 25. The largest current model driver is venue / home field, which leans toward Chicago Bears.

Actual result Philadelphia Eagles 7, Chicago Bears 27 Pick correct

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WEEK ARCHIVE

Week 3 is complete

Interactive simulations close after kickoff so the model cannot use information learned during or after the game. The cards above preserve FSN’s final pregame forecast beside the actual result.

HOW IT WORKS

A prediction tool that shows its work

FSN begins with its opponent-adjusted team rating, then layers in smaller matchup adjustments from recent results, weekly EPA/CPOE efficiency, quarterback efficiency, current injury reports, pass rush and interceptions, kicking, rest, venue and travel. Market spread/total data is used only as a capped reality check when it exists. The resulting expected margin and total become the center of a score distribution that the browser samples thousands of times.

The simulator is probabilistic, not a claim that a game will finish at one exact score. A 64% favorite still loses roughly one out of three comparable simulations. Football remains delightfully rude to certainty.

NFL SIMULATOR FAQ

How FSN weekly predictions update

Do NFL Week predictions recalculate after games are played?

Yes. Future matchups are rebuilt from the latest available team ratings, current-season results, weekly player and team efficiency data, injuries and matchup context. A Week 2 forecast can use Week 1 data; a Week 5 forecast can use Weeks 1–4.

Does FSN change an old prediction after kickoff?

No. Once kickoff passes, FSN uses the final stored pregame Smart Simulator snapshot for the historical weekly page. That prevents future information from leaking backward into old predictions.

Is the projected score supposed to be exact?

No. The projected score is the center of a probability distribution. The Monte Carlo simulation samples thousands of plausible scoring outcomes around that expectation to estimate win probability and score ranges.

Does FSN use betting lines to make the prediction?

Market spread and total data can be used as a deliberately capped sanity check when available, but they are not the primary model. FSN’s team, player, injury and matchup inputs drive the forecast.

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