FSN SMART SIM · 2026 WEEK 1

NFL Week 1 Predictions

Every 2026 NFL Week 1 matchup, projected with FSN’s Smart Game Simulator. Compare predicted winners, win probabilities and projected scores, then open any upcoming matchup to run 1,000, 10,000 or 50,000 simulations.

10,000 sims defaultReal player dataTransparent factorsPregame snapshots

MODEL FSN-SIM-1.0

Live forecasts update until kickoff; completed games keep their last pregame snapshot.

Data updated 25 minutes ago

NFL PREDICTIONS Week 1 Sep 9–Sep 14

2026 NFL WEEK 1

NFL Week 1 Predictions: Every Game

These are server-rendered FSN model forecasts, not sportsbook picks. Upcoming games continue to update as new results, player data and injury information become available. Once a game starts, its last pregame forecast is frozen for transparent historical tracking.

Wed, Sep 9 · 8:20 PM ET FINAL

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks Prediction

NENew England Patriots 20

SEASeattle Seahawks 24

FSN PICK Seattle Seahawks 66%

FSN gives the Seattle Seahawks a 66% win probability against the New England Patriots, with a projected score of New England Patriots 20, Seattle Seahawks 24. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Seattle Seahawks.

Actual result New England Patriots 10, Seattle Seahawks 13 Pick correct

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Thu, Sep 10 · 8:35 PM ET FINAL

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams Prediction

SFSan Francisco 49ers 20

LARLos Angeles Rams 24

FSN PICK Los Angeles Rams 66%

FSN gives the Los Angeles Rams a 66% win probability against the San Francisco 49ers, with a projected score of San Francisco 49ers 20, Los Angeles Rams 24. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Los Angeles Rams.

Actual result San Francisco 49ers 27, Los Angeles Rams 7 Upset / miss

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Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers Prediction

CHIChicago Bears 23

CARCarolina Panthers 21

FSN PICK Chicago Bears 58%

FSN gives the Chicago Bears a 58% win probability against the Carolina Panthers, with a projected score of Chicago Bears 23, Carolina Panthers 21. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Chicago Bears.

Actual result Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals Prediction

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers 22

CINCincinnati Bengals 23

FSN PICK Cincinnati Bengals 52%

FSN gives the Cincinnati Bengals a 52% win probability against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with a projected score of Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22, Cincinnati Bengals 23. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Actual result Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 33 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions Prediction

NONew Orleans Saints 18

DETDetroit Lions 26

FSN PICK Detroit Lions 77%

FSN gives the Detroit Lions a 77% win probability against the New Orleans Saints, with a projected score of New Orleans Saints 18, Detroit Lions 26. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Detroit Lions.

Actual result New Orleans Saints 30, Detroit Lions 31 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans Prediction

BUFBuffalo Bills 21

HOUHouston Texans 23

FSN PICK Houston Texans 59%

FSN gives the Houston Texans a 59% win probability against the Buffalo Bills, with a projected score of Buffalo Bills 21, Houston Texans 23. The largest current model driver is venue / home field, which leans toward Houston Texans.

Actual result Buffalo Bills 36, Houston Texans 31 Upset / miss

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Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts Prediction

BALBaltimore Ravens 21

INDIndianapolis Colts 23

FSN PICK Indianapolis Colts 57%

FSN gives the Indianapolis Colts a 57% win probability against the Baltimore Ravens, with a projected score of Baltimore Ravens 21, Indianapolis Colts 23. The largest current model driver is venue / home field, which leans toward Indianapolis Colts.

Actual result Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset / miss

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Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction

CLECleveland Browns 16

JAXJacksonville Jaguars 27

FSN PICK Jacksonville Jaguars 85%

FSN gives the Jacksonville Jaguars a 85% win probability against the Cleveland Browns, with a projected score of Cleveland Browns 16, Jacksonville Jaguars 27. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Jacksonville Jaguars.

Actual result Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction

ATLAtlanta Falcons 19

PITPittsburgh Steelers 24

FSN PICK Pittsburgh Steelers 67%

FSN gives the Pittsburgh Steelers a 67% win probability against the Atlanta Falcons, with a projected score of Atlanta Falcons 19, Pittsburgh Steelers 24. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Pittsburgh Steelers.

Actual result Atlanta Falcons 13, Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans Prediction

NYJNew York Jets 20

TENTennessee Titans 23

FSN PICK Tennessee Titans 62%

FSN gives the Tennessee Titans a 62% win probability against the New York Jets, with a projected score of New York Jets 20, Tennessee Titans 23. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Tennessee Titans.

Actual result New York Jets 23, Tennessee Titans 10 Upset / miss

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Sun, Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET FINAL

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers Prediction

ARIArizona Cardinals 18

LACLos Angeles Chargers 26

FSN PICK Los Angeles Chargers 76%

FSN gives the Los Angeles Chargers a 76% win probability against the Arizona Cardinals, with a projected score of Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Chargers 26. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Los Angeles Chargers.

Actual result Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 Upset / miss

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Sun, Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET FINAL

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

MIAMiami Dolphins 22

LVLas Vegas Raiders 21

FSN PICK Miami Dolphins 54%

FSN gives the Miami Dolphins a 54% win probability against the Las Vegas Raiders, with a projected score of Miami Dolphins 22, Las Vegas Raiders 21. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Miami Dolphins.

Actual result Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27 Upset / miss

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Sun, Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET FINAL

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings Prediction

GBGreen Bay Packers 22

MINMinnesota Vikings 22

FSN PICK Minnesota Vikings 53%

FSN gives the Minnesota Vikings a 53% win probability against the Green Bay Packers, with a projected score of Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 22. The largest current model driver is venue / home field, which leans toward Minnesota Vikings.

Actual result Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET FINAL

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles Prediction

WASWashington Commanders 19

PHIPhiladelphia Eagles 25

FSN PICK Philadelphia Eagles 73%

FSN gives the Philadelphia Eagles a 73% win probability against the Washington Commanders, with a projected score of Washington Commanders 19, Philadelphia Eagles 25. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Philadelphia Eagles.

Actual result Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24 Pick correct

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Sun, Sep 13 · 8:20 PM ET FINAL

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants Prediction

DALDallas Cowboys 22

NYGNew York Giants 22

FSN PICK New York Giants 53%

FSN gives the New York Giants a 53% win probability against the Dallas Cowboys, with a projected score of Dallas Cowboys 22, New York Giants 22. The largest current model driver is venue / home field, which leans toward New York Giants.

Actual result Dallas Cowboys 20, New York Giants 28 Pick correct

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Mon, Sep 14 · 8:15 PM ET FINAL

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

DENDenver Broncos 22

KCKansas City Chiefs 22

FSN PICK Denver Broncos 50%

FSN gives the Denver Broncos a 50% win probability against the Kansas City Chiefs, with a projected score of Denver Broncos 22, Kansas City Chiefs 22. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Denver Broncos.

Actual result Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31 Upset / miss

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WEEK ARCHIVE

Week 1 is complete

Interactive simulations close after kickoff so the model cannot use information learned during or after the game. The cards above preserve FSN’s final pregame forecast beside the actual result.

HOW IT WORKS

A prediction tool that shows its work

FSN begins with its opponent-adjusted team rating, then layers in smaller matchup adjustments from recent results, weekly EPA/CPOE efficiency, quarterback efficiency, current injury reports, pass rush and interceptions, kicking, rest, venue and travel. Market spread/total data is used only as a capped reality check when it exists. The resulting expected margin and total become the center of a score distribution that the browser samples thousands of times.

The simulator is probabilistic, not a claim that a game will finish at one exact score. A 64% favorite still loses roughly one out of three comparable simulations. Football remains delightfully rude to certainty.

NFL SIMULATOR FAQ

How FSN weekly predictions update

Do NFL Week predictions recalculate after games are played?

Yes. Future matchups are rebuilt from the latest available team ratings, current-season results, weekly player and team efficiency data, injuries and matchup context. A Week 2 forecast can use Week 1 data; a Week 5 forecast can use Weeks 1–4.

Does FSN change an old prediction after kickoff?

No. Once kickoff passes, FSN uses the final stored pregame Smart Simulator snapshot for the historical weekly page. That prevents future information from leaking backward into old predictions.

Is the projected score supposed to be exact?

No. The projected score is the center of a probability distribution. The Monte Carlo simulation samples thousands of plausible scoring outcomes around that expectation to estimate win probability and score ranges.

Does FSN use betting lines to make the prediction?

Market spread and total data can be used as a deliberately capped sanity check when available, but they are not the primary model. FSN’s team, player, injury and matchup inputs drive the forecast.

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