Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Jacksonville Jaguars 74% pregame win probability.
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Optimizer
Build free NFL confidence pool picks and rankings: choose every winner, let FSN order your selections by pregame win probability, then adjust the confidence points to match your strategy.
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Pick every Week 9 winner
FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating. Cincinnati Bengals 62% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Denver Broncos 63% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Indianapolis Colts
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Indianapolis Colts 56% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Kansas City Chiefs 82% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Detroit Lions 74% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New Orleans Saints
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. New Orleans Saints 61% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New York Giants
New York Giants owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. New York Giants 51% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Los Angeles Rams 75% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Houston Texans
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Houston Texans 69% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. San Francisco 49ers 86% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. New England Patriots 67% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 87% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Chicago Bears 69% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Buffalo Bills 54% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 9 Confidence Picks
15 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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15
Seattle Seahawks87% FSN win probability · Very High -
14
San Francisco 49ers86% FSN win probability · Very High -
13
Kansas City Chiefs82% FSN win probability · Very High -
12
Los Angeles Rams75% FSN win probability · High -
11
Detroit Lions74% FSN win probability · High -
10
Jacksonville Jaguars74% FSN win probability · High -
9
Chicago Bears69% FSN win probability · High -
8
Houston Texans69% FSN win probability · High -
7
New England Patriots67% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
Denver Broncos63% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Cincinnati Bengals62% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
New Orleans Saints61% FSN win probability · Moderate -
3
Indianapolis Colts56% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
Buffalo Bills54% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
New York Giants51% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 9 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 87% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
Straight-up favorite accuracy from stored pregame FSN predictions this season. Calibration by probability band is tracked separately.
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule → Play the Field Goal Kicking Game →