Why FSN leans Houston Texans
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Houston Texans 65% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 11
NFL Week 11 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 11 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Your Pick Sheet
Pick every Week 11 winner
FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 80% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Baltimore Ravens 59% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Chicago Bears 74% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Dallas Cowboys 70% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Detroit Lions 65% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Kansas City Chiefs 74% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Jacksonville Jaguars 72% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Chargers 84% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Denver Broncos 87% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Philadelphia Eagles 65% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating. San Francisco 49ers 64% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Washington Commanders 53% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 11 Confidence Picks
13 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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13
Denver Broncos87% FSN win probability · Very High -
12
Los Angeles Chargers84% FSN win probability · Very High -
11
Buffalo Bills80% FSN win probability · Very High -
10
Kansas City Chiefs74% FSN win probability · High -
9
Chicago Bears74% FSN win probability · High -
8
Jacksonville Jaguars72% FSN win probability · High -
7
Dallas Cowboys70% FSN win probability · High -
6
Detroit Lions65% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Houston Texans65% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
Philadelphia Eagles65% FSN win probability · Moderate -
3
San Francisco 49ers64% FSN win probability · Moderate -
2
Baltimore Ravens59% FSN win probability · Moderate -
1
Washington Commanders53% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 11 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Denver Broncos 87% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
FSN stores the final pregame probability before kickoff. Once games finish, those frozen predictions become the model’s real 2026 track record.
FSN NFL Week 11 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 11 selection is Denver Broncos at 87%. The tightest favorite is Washington Commanders at 53%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Denver Broncos | LV at DEN | 87% | Very High |
| 12 | Los Angeles Chargers | NYJ at LAC | 84% | Very High |
| 11 | Buffalo Bills | MIA at BUF | 80% | Very High |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | ARI at KC | 74% | High |
| 9 | Chicago Bears | NO at CHI | 74% | High |
| 8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | JAX at NYG | 72% | High |
| 7 | Dallas Cowboys | TEN at DAL | 70% | High |
| 6 | Detroit Lions | TB at DET | 65% | Moderate |
| 5 | Houston Texans | IND at HOU | 65% | Moderate |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | PIT at PHI | 65% | Moderate |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | MIN at SF | 64% | Moderate |
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | BAL at CAR | 59% | Moderate |
| 1 | Washington Commanders | CIN at WAS | 53% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 11 this way
13 LV at DEN Denver Broncos — 87%
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Denver Broncos 87% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 NYJ at LAC Los Angeles Chargers — 84%
Los Angeles Chargers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Chargers 84% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 MIA at BUF Buffalo Bills — 80%
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 80% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 ARI at KC Kansas City Chiefs — 74%
Kansas City Chiefs owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Kansas City Chiefs 74% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 NO at CHI Chicago Bears — 74%
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Chicago Bears 74% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 JAX at NYG Jacksonville Jaguars — 72%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Jacksonville Jaguars 72% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 TEN at DAL Dallas Cowboys — 70%
Dallas Cowboys owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Dallas Cowboys 70% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 TB at DET Detroit Lions — 65%
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Detroit Lions 65% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 IND at HOU Houston Texans — 65%
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Houston Texans 65% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 PIT at PHI Philadelphia Eagles — 65%
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Philadelphia Eagles 65% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 MIN at SF San Francisco 49ers — 64%
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating. San Francisco 49ers 64% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 BAL at CAR Baltimore Ravens — 59%
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Baltimore Ravens 59% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 CIN at WAS Washington Commanders — 53%
Washington Commanders is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Washington Commanders 53% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule →