Why FSN leans Houston Texans
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Houston Texans 69% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 11
NFL Week 11 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 11 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Your Pick Sheet
Pick every Week 11 winner
FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 88% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Carolina Panthers 51% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Chicago Bears 84% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Dallas Cowboys 77% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Detroit Lions 61% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Kansas City Chiefs 81% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Jacksonville Jaguars 77% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Chargers 63% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Denver Broncos 82% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Pittsburgh Steelers 60% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating. San Francisco 49ers 58% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Cincinnati Bengals 64% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 11 Confidence Picks
13 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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13
Buffalo Bills88% FSN win probability · Very High -
12
Chicago Bears84% FSN win probability · Very High -
11
Denver Broncos82% FSN win probability · Very High -
10
Kansas City Chiefs81% FSN win probability · Very High -
9
Dallas Cowboys77% FSN win probability · High -
8
Jacksonville Jaguars77% FSN win probability · High -
7
Houston Texans69% FSN win probability · High -
6
Cincinnati Bengals64% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Los Angeles Chargers63% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
Detroit Lions61% FSN win probability · Moderate -
3
Pittsburgh Steelers60% FSN win probability · Moderate -
2
San Francisco 49ers58% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Carolina Panthers51% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 11 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 88% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
Straight-up favorite accuracy from stored pregame FSN predictions this season. Calibration by probability band is tracked separately.
FSN NFL Week 11 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 11 selection is Buffalo Bills at 88%. The tightest favorite is Carolina Panthers at 51%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Buffalo Bills | MIA at BUF | 88% | Very High |
| 12 | Chicago Bears | NO at CHI | 84% | Very High |
| 11 | Denver Broncos | LV at DEN | 82% | Very High |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | ARI at KC | 81% | Very High |
| 9 | Dallas Cowboys | TEN at DAL | 77% | High |
| 8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | JAX at NYG | 77% | High |
| 7 | Houston Texans | IND at HOU | 69% | High |
| 6 | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN at WAS | 64% | Moderate |
| 5 | Los Angeles Chargers | NYJ at LAC | 63% | Moderate |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | TB at DET | 61% | Moderate |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | PIT at PHI | 60% | Moderate |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | MIN at SF | 58% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Carolina Panthers | BAL at CAR | 51% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 11 this way
13 MIA at BUF Buffalo Bills — 88%
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 88% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 NO at CHI Chicago Bears — 84%
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Chicago Bears 84% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 LV at DEN Denver Broncos — 82%
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Denver Broncos 82% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 ARI at KC Kansas City Chiefs — 81%
Kansas City Chiefs owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Kansas City Chiefs 81% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 TEN at DAL Dallas Cowboys — 77%
Dallas Cowboys owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Dallas Cowboys 77% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 JAX at NYG Jacksonville Jaguars — 77%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Jacksonville Jaguars 77% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 IND at HOU Houston Texans — 69%
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Houston Texans 69% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 CIN at WAS Cincinnati Bengals — 64%
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Cincinnati Bengals 64% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 NYJ at LAC Los Angeles Chargers — 63%
Los Angeles Chargers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Chargers 63% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 TB at DET Detroit Lions — 61%
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Detroit Lions 61% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 PIT at PHI Pittsburgh Steelers — 60%
Pittsburgh Steelers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Pittsburgh Steelers 60% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 MIN at SF San Francisco 49ers — 58%
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating. San Francisco 49ers 58% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 BAL at CAR Carolina Panthers — 51%
Carolina Panthers is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Carolina Panthers 51% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule → Play the Field Goal Kicking Game →