Why FSN leans Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Dallas Cowboys 63% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 5
NFL Week 5 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 5 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Pick every Week 5 winner
FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Jacksonville Jaguars 82% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Chicago Bears 66% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Cincinnati Bengals 66% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New England Patriots 80% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Minnesota Vikings 68% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Cleveland Browns 56% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Indianapolis Colts 50% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Houston Texans
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Houston Texans 76% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New York Giants
New York Giants owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. New York Giants 54% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Denver Broncos 61% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Detroit Lions 63% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 60% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Baltimore Ravens 53% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Rams 61% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 5 Confidence Picks
15 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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15
Jacksonville Jaguars82% FSN win probability · Very High -
14
New England Patriots80% FSN win probability · Very High -
13
Houston Texans76% FSN win probability · High -
12
Minnesota Vikings68% FSN win probability · High -
11
Chicago Bears66% FSN win probability · Moderate -
10
Cincinnati Bengals66% FSN win probability · Moderate -
9
Detroit Lions63% FSN win probability · Moderate -
8
Dallas Cowboys63% FSN win probability · Moderate -
7
Denver Broncos61% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
Los Angeles Rams61% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Seattle Seahawks60% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
Cleveland Browns56% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
3
New York Giants54% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
Baltimore Ravens53% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Indianapolis Colts50% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 5 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Jacksonville Jaguars 82% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
Straight-up favorite accuracy from stored pregame FSN predictions this season. Calibration by probability band is tracked separately.
FSN NFL Week 5 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 5 selection is Jacksonville Jaguars at 82%. The tightest favorite is Indianapolis Colts at 50%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Jacksonville Jaguars | PHI at JAX | 82% | Very High |
| 14 | New England Patriots | LV at NE | 80% | Very High |
| 13 | Houston Texans | HOU at TEN | 76% | High |
| 12 | Minnesota Vikings | MIN at NO | 68% | High |
| 11 | Chicago Bears | CHI at GB | 66% | Moderate |
| 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN at MIA | 66% | Moderate |
| 9 | Detroit Lions | DET at ARI | 63% | Moderate |
| 8 | Dallas Cowboys | TB at DAL | 63% | Moderate |
| 7 | Denver Broncos | DEN at LAC | 61% | Moderate |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams | BUF at LAR | 61% | Moderate |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | SF at SEA | 60% | Moderate |
| 4 | Cleveland Browns | CLE at NYJ | 56% | Toss-up |
| 3 | New York Giants | NYG at WAS | 54% | Toss-up |
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | BAL at ATL | 53% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Indianapolis Colts | IND at PIT | 50% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 5 this way
15 PHI at JAX Jacksonville Jaguars — 82%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Jacksonville Jaguars 82% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →14 LV at NE New England Patriots — 80%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New England Patriots 80% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 HOU at TEN Houston Texans — 76%
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Houston Texans 76% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 MIN at NO Minnesota Vikings — 68%
Minnesota Vikings owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Minnesota Vikings 68% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 CHI at GB Chicago Bears — 66%
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Chicago Bears 66% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 CIN at MIA Cincinnati Bengals — 66%
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Cincinnati Bengals 66% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 DET at ARI Detroit Lions — 63%
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Detroit Lions 63% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 TB at DAL Dallas Cowboys — 63%
Dallas Cowboys owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Dallas Cowboys 63% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 DEN at LAC Denver Broncos — 61%
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Denver Broncos 61% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 BUF at LAR Los Angeles Rams — 61%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Rams 61% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 SF at SEA Seattle Seahawks — 60%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 60% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 CLE at NYJ Cleveland Browns — 56%
Cleveland Browns owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Cleveland Browns 56% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 NYG at WAS New York Giants — 54%
New York Giants owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. New York Giants 54% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 BAL at ATL Baltimore Ravens — 53%
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Baltimore Ravens 53% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 IND at PIT Indianapolis Colts — 50%
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Indianapolis Colts 50% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule → Play the Field Goal Kicking Game →