Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New England Patriots 63% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 14
NFL Week 14 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 14 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Pick every Week 14 winner
FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Baltimore Ravens 55% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Carolina Panthers 62% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Atlanta Falcons 56% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Detroit Lions 87% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Chicago Bears 78% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Denver Broncos 72% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Indianapolis Colts 54% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Houston Texans
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Houston Texans 66% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Las Vegas Raiders
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Las Vegas Raiders 58% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Cincinnati Bengals
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Cincinnati Bengals 51% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 82% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans San Francisco 49ers
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. San Francisco 49ers 55% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Buffalo Bills 61% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Jacksonville Jaguars 74% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 14 Confidence Picks
15 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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15
Detroit Lions87% FSN win probability · Very High -
14
Seattle Seahawks82% FSN win probability · Very High -
13
Chicago Bears78% FSN win probability · Very High -
12
Jacksonville Jaguars74% FSN win probability · High -
11
Denver Broncos72% FSN win probability · High -
10
Houston Texans66% FSN win probability · Moderate -
9
New England Patriots63% FSN win probability · Moderate -
8
Carolina Panthers62% FSN win probability · Moderate -
7
Buffalo Bills61% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
Las Vegas Raiders58% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
5
Atlanta Falcons56% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
4
San Francisco 49ers55% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
3
Baltimore Ravens55% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
Indianapolis Colts54% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Cincinnati Bengals51% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 14 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Detroit Lions 87% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
Straight-up favorite accuracy from stored pregame FSN predictions this season. Calibration by probability band is tracked separately.
FSN NFL Week 14 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 14 selection is Detroit Lions at 87%. The tightest favorite is Cincinnati Bengals at 51%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Detroit Lions | TEN at DET | 87% | Very High |
| 14 | Seattle Seahawks | NYG at SEA | 82% | Very High |
| 13 | Chicago Bears | CHI at MIA | 78% | Very High |
| 12 | Jacksonville Jaguars | PIT at JAX | 74% | High |
| 11 | Denver Broncos | DEN at NYJ | 72% | High |
| 10 | Houston Texans | HOU at WAS | 66% | Moderate |
| 9 | New England Patriots | MIN at NE | 63% | Moderate |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | NO at CAR | 62% | Moderate |
| 7 | Buffalo Bills | BUF at GB | 61% | Moderate |
| 6 | Las Vegas Raiders | LAC at LV | 58% | Toss-up |
| 5 | Atlanta Falcons | ATL at CLE | 56% | Toss-up |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | LAR at SF | 55% | Toss-up |
| 3 | Baltimore Ravens | TB at BAL | 55% | Toss-up |
| 2 | Indianapolis Colts | IND at PHI | 54% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | KC at CIN | 51% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 14 this way
15 TEN at DET Detroit Lions — 87%
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Detroit Lions 87% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →14 NYG at SEA Seattle Seahawks — 82%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 82% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 CHI at MIA Chicago Bears — 78%
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Chicago Bears 78% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 PIT at JAX Jacksonville Jaguars — 74%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Jacksonville Jaguars 74% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 DEN at NYJ Denver Broncos — 72%
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Denver Broncos 72% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 HOU at WAS Houston Texans — 66%
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Houston Texans 66% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 MIN at NE New England Patriots — 63%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New England Patriots 63% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 NO at CAR Carolina Panthers — 62%
Carolina Panthers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Carolina Panthers 62% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 BUF at GB Buffalo Bills — 61%
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Buffalo Bills 61% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 LAC at LV Las Vegas Raiders — 58%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Las Vegas Raiders 58% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 ATL at CLE Atlanta Falcons — 56%
Atlanta Falcons owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Atlanta Falcons 56% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 LAR at SF San Francisco 49ers — 55%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. San Francisco 49ers 55% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 TB at BAL Baltimore Ravens — 55%
Baltimore Ravens is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Baltimore Ravens 55% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 IND at PHI Indianapolis Colts — 54%
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Indianapolis Colts 54% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 KC at CIN Cincinnati Bengals — 51%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Cincinnati Bengals 51% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule → Play the Field Goal Kicking Game →