Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New England Patriots 73% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 14
NFL Week 14 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 14 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Your Pick Sheet
Pick every Week 14 winner
FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Baltimore Ravens 68% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Carolina Panthers 59% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Atlanta Falcons 56% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Detroit Lions 84% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Chicago Bears 62% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Denver Broncos 79% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Indianapolis Colts
The underlying team ratings are close; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Indianapolis Colts 51% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Houston Texans
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Houston Texans 77% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Los Angeles Chargers 70% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Kansas City Chiefs 61% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 87% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Los Angeles Rams 62% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Buffalo Bills 55% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Jacksonville Jaguars 74% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 14 Confidence Picks
15 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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15
Seattle Seahawks87% FSN win probability · Very High -
14
Detroit Lions84% FSN win probability · Very High -
13
Denver Broncos79% FSN win probability · Very High -
12
Houston Texans77% FSN win probability · High -
11
Jacksonville Jaguars74% FSN win probability · High -
10
New England Patriots73% FSN win probability · High -
9
Los Angeles Chargers70% FSN win probability · High -
8
Baltimore Ravens68% FSN win probability · High -
7
Los Angeles Rams62% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
Chicago Bears62% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Kansas City Chiefs61% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
Carolina Panthers59% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
3
Atlanta Falcons56% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
Buffalo Bills55% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Indianapolis Colts51% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 14 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 87% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
FSN stores the final pregame probability before kickoff. Once games finish, those frozen predictions become the model’s real 2026 track record.
FSN NFL Week 14 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 14 selection is Seattle Seahawks at 87%. The tightest favorite is Indianapolis Colts at 51%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Seattle Seahawks | NYG at SEA | 87% | Very High |
| 14 | Detroit Lions | TEN at DET | 84% | Very High |
| 13 | Denver Broncos | DEN at NYJ | 79% | Very High |
| 12 | Houston Texans | HOU at WAS | 77% | High |
| 11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | PIT at JAX | 74% | High |
| 10 | New England Patriots | MIN at NE | 73% | High |
| 9 | Los Angeles Chargers | LAC at LV | 70% | High |
| 8 | Baltimore Ravens | TB at BAL | 68% | High |
| 7 | Los Angeles Rams | LAR at SF | 62% | Moderate |
| 6 | Chicago Bears | CHI at MIA | 62% | Moderate |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | KC at CIN | 61% | Moderate |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers | NO at CAR | 59% | Toss-up |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons | ATL at CLE | 56% | Toss-up |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | BUF at GB | 55% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Indianapolis Colts | IND at PHI | 51% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 14 this way
15 NYG at SEA Seattle Seahawks — 87%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 87% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →14 TEN at DET Detroit Lions — 84%
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Detroit Lions 84% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 DEN at NYJ Denver Broncos — 79%
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Denver Broncos 79% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 HOU at WAS Houston Texans — 77%
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Houston Texans 77% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 PIT at JAX Jacksonville Jaguars — 74%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Jacksonville Jaguars 74% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 MIN at NE New England Patriots — 73%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New England Patriots 73% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 LAC at LV Los Angeles Chargers — 70%
Los Angeles Chargers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Los Angeles Chargers 70% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 TB at BAL Baltimore Ravens — 68%
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Baltimore Ravens 68% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 LAR at SF Los Angeles Rams — 62%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Los Angeles Rams 62% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 CHI at MIA Chicago Bears — 62%
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Chicago Bears 62% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 KC at CIN Kansas City Chiefs — 61%
Kansas City Chiefs owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Kansas City Chiefs 61% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 NO at CAR Carolina Panthers — 59%
Carolina Panthers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Carolina Panthers 59% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 ATL at CLE Atlanta Falcons — 56%
Atlanta Falcons owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Atlanta Falcons 56% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 BUF at GB Buffalo Bills — 55%
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Buffalo Bills 55% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 IND at PHI Indianapolis Colts — 51%
The underlying team ratings are close; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Indianapolis Colts 51% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule →