Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Jacksonville Jaguars 74% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 9
NFL Week 9 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 9 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Why FSN leans Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating. Cincinnati Bengals 62% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Denver Broncos 63% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Indianapolis Colts
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Indianapolis Colts 56% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Kansas City Chiefs 82% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Detroit Lions 74% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New Orleans Saints
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. New Orleans Saints 61% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New York Giants
New York Giants owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. New York Giants 51% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Los Angeles Rams 75% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Houston Texans
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Houston Texans 69% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. San Francisco 49ers 86% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. New England Patriots 67% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 87% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Chicago Bears 69% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Buffalo Bills 54% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 9 Confidence Picks
15 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
-
15
Seattle Seahawks87% FSN win probability · Very High -
14
San Francisco 49ers86% FSN win probability · Very High -
13
Kansas City Chiefs82% FSN win probability · Very High -
12
Los Angeles Rams75% FSN win probability · High -
11
Detroit Lions74% FSN win probability · High -
10
Jacksonville Jaguars74% FSN win probability · High -
9
Chicago Bears69% FSN win probability · High -
8
Houston Texans69% FSN win probability · High -
7
New England Patriots67% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
Denver Broncos63% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Cincinnati Bengals62% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
New Orleans Saints61% FSN win probability · Moderate -
3
Indianapolis Colts56% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
Buffalo Bills54% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
New York Giants51% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 9 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 87% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
Straight-up favorite accuracy from stored pregame FSN predictions this season. Calibration by probability band is tracked separately.
FSN NFL Week 9 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 9 selection is Seattle Seahawks at 87%. The tightest favorite is New York Giants at 51%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Seattle Seahawks | ARI at SEA | 87% | Very High |
| 14 | San Francisco 49ers | LV at SF | 86% | Very High |
| 13 | Kansas City Chiefs | NYJ at KC | 82% | Very High |
| 12 | Los Angeles Rams | LAR at WAS | 75% | High |
| 11 | Detroit Lions | DET at MIA | 74% | High |
| 10 | Jacksonville Jaguars | JAX at BAL | 74% | High |
| 9 | Chicago Bears | TB at CHI | 69% | High |
| 8 | Houston Texans | HOU at LAC | 69% | High |
| 7 | New England Patriots | GB at NE | 67% | Moderate |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | DEN at CAR | 63% | Moderate |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN at ATL | 62% | Moderate |
| 4 | New Orleans Saints | CLE at NO | 61% | Moderate |
| 3 | Indianapolis Colts | DAL at IND | 56% | Toss-up |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | BUF at MIN | 54% | Toss-up |
| 1 | New York Giants | NYG at PHI | 51% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 9 this way
15 ARI at SEA Seattle Seahawks — 87%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 87% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →14 LV at SF San Francisco 49ers — 86%
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. San Francisco 49ers 86% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 NYJ at KC Kansas City Chiefs — 82%
Kansas City Chiefs owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Kansas City Chiefs 82% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 LAR at WAS Los Angeles Rams — 75%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Los Angeles Rams 75% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 DET at MIA Detroit Lions — 74%
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Detroit Lions 74% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 JAX at BAL Jacksonville Jaguars — 74%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Jacksonville Jaguars 74% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 TB at CHI Chicago Bears — 69%
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Chicago Bears 69% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 HOU at LAC Houston Texans — 69%
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Houston Texans 69% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 GB at NE New England Patriots — 67%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. New England Patriots 67% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 DEN at CAR Denver Broncos — 63%
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Denver Broncos 63% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 CIN at ATL Cincinnati Bengals — 62%
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating. Cincinnati Bengals 62% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 CLE at NO New Orleans Saints — 61%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. New Orleans Saints 61% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 DAL at IND Indianapolis Colts — 56%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Indianapolis Colts 56% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 BUF at MIN Buffalo Bills — 54%
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Buffalo Bills 54% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 NYG at PHI New York Giants — 51%
New York Giants owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. New York Giants 51% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule → Play the Field Goal Kicking Game →