Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Jacksonville Jaguars 60% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 9
NFL Week 9 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 9 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Your Pick Sheet
Pick every Week 9 winner
FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating. Atlanta Falcons 54% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Denver Broncos 63% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Indianapolis Colts 74% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Kansas City Chiefs 84% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Detroit Lions 68% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. New Orleans Saints 65% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Philadelphia Eagles 69% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Los Angeles Rams 84% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Houston Texans
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Houston Texans 64% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. San Francisco 49ers 89% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. New England Patriots 67% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 90% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Chicago Bears 62% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Buffalo Bills 59% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 9 Confidence Picks
15 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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15
Seattle Seahawks90% FSN win probability · Very High -
14
San Francisco 49ers89% FSN win probability · Very High -
13
Kansas City Chiefs84% FSN win probability · Very High -
12
Los Angeles Rams84% FSN win probability · Very High -
11
Indianapolis Colts74% FSN win probability · High -
10
Philadelphia Eagles69% FSN win probability · High -
9
Detroit Lions68% FSN win probability · High -
8
New England Patriots67% FSN win probability · Moderate -
7
New Orleans Saints65% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
Houston Texans64% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Denver Broncos63% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
Chicago Bears62% FSN win probability · Moderate -
3
Jacksonville Jaguars60% FSN win probability · Moderate -
2
Buffalo Bills59% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Atlanta Falcons54% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 9 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 90% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
FSN stores the final pregame probability before kickoff. Once games finish, those frozen predictions become the model’s real 2026 track record.
FSN NFL Week 9 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 9 selection is Seattle Seahawks at 90%. The tightest favorite is Atlanta Falcons at 54%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Seattle Seahawks | ARI at SEA | 90% | Very High |
| 14 | San Francisco 49ers | LV at SF | 89% | Very High |
| 13 | Kansas City Chiefs | NYJ at KC | 84% | Very High |
| 12 | Los Angeles Rams | LAR at WAS | 84% | Very High |
| 11 | Indianapolis Colts | DAL at IND | 74% | High |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | NYG at PHI | 69% | High |
| 9 | Detroit Lions | DET at MIA | 68% | High |
| 8 | New England Patriots | GB at NE | 67% | Moderate |
| 7 | New Orleans Saints | CLE at NO | 65% | Moderate |
| 6 | Houston Texans | HOU at LAC | 64% | Moderate |
| 5 | Denver Broncos | DEN at CAR | 63% | Moderate |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | TB at CHI | 62% | Moderate |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | JAX at BAL | 60% | Moderate |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | BUF at MIN | 59% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Atlanta Falcons | CIN at ATL | 54% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 9 this way
15 ARI at SEA Seattle Seahawks — 90%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 90% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →14 LV at SF San Francisco 49ers — 89%
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. San Francisco 49ers 89% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 NYJ at KC Kansas City Chiefs — 84%
Kansas City Chiefs owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Kansas City Chiefs 84% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 LAR at WAS Los Angeles Rams — 84%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Los Angeles Rams 84% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 DAL at IND Indianapolis Colts — 74%
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Indianapolis Colts 74% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 NYG at PHI Philadelphia Eagles — 69%
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Philadelphia Eagles 69% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 DET at MIA Detroit Lions — 68%
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Detroit Lions 68% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 GB at NE New England Patriots — 67%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. New England Patriots 67% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 CLE at NO New Orleans Saints — 65%
New Orleans Saints owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. New Orleans Saints 65% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 HOU at LAC Houston Texans — 64%
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Houston Texans 64% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 DEN at CAR Denver Broncos — 63%
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Denver Broncos 63% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 TB at CHI Chicago Bears — 62%
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Chicago Bears 62% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 JAX at BAL Jacksonville Jaguars — 60%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Jacksonville Jaguars 60% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 BUF at MIN Buffalo Bills — 59%
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Buffalo Bills 59% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 CIN at ATL Atlanta Falcons — 54%
Atlanta Falcons owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating. Atlanta Falcons 54% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule →