Why FSN leans San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. San Francisco 49ers 55% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 15
NFL Week 15 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 15 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Seattle Seahawks 68% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 67% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Carolina Panthers
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Carolina Panthers 57% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Green Bay Packers 73% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Houston Texans
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Houston Texans 55% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New York Giants
New York Giants owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New York Giants 64% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Pittsburgh Steelers 51% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 65% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Indianapolis Colts 77% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Atlanta Falcons 53% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Arizona Cardinals 74% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Los Angeles Rams 85% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Denver Broncos 79% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Detroit Lions 53% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. New England Patriots 59% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 15 Confidence Picks
16 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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16
Los Angeles Rams85% FSN win probability · Very High -
15
Denver Broncos79% FSN win probability · Very High -
14
Indianapolis Colts77% FSN win probability · High -
13
Arizona Cardinals74% FSN win probability · High -
12
Green Bay Packers73% FSN win probability · High -
11
Seattle Seahawks68% FSN win probability · High -
10
Buffalo Bills67% FSN win probability · Moderate -
9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers65% FSN win probability · Moderate -
8
New York Giants64% FSN win probability · Moderate -
7
New England Patriots59% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
Carolina Panthers57% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
5
San Francisco 49ers55% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
4
Houston Texans55% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
3
Detroit Lions53% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
Atlanta Falcons53% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Pittsburgh Steelers51% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 15 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Los Angeles Rams 85% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
FSN stores the final pregame probability before kickoff. Once games finish, those frozen predictions become the model’s real 2026 track record.
FSN NFL Week 15 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 15 selection is Los Angeles Rams at 85%. The tightest favorite is Pittsburgh Steelers at 51%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Los Angeles Rams | DAL at LAR | 85% | Very High |
| 15 | Denver Broncos | DEN at LV | 79% | Very High |
| 14 | Indianapolis Colts | IND at TEN | 77% | High |
| 13 | Arizona Cardinals | NYJ at ARI | 74% | High |
| 12 | Green Bay Packers | MIA at GB | 73% | High |
| 11 | Seattle Seahawks | SEA at PHI | 68% | High |
| 10 | Buffalo Bills | CHI at BUF | 67% | Moderate |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NO at TB | 65% | Moderate |
| 8 | New York Giants | CLE at NYG | 64% | Moderate |
| 7 | New England Patriots | NE at KC | 59% | Moderate |
| 6 | Carolina Panthers | CIN at CAR | 57% | Toss-up |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | SF at LAC | 55% | Toss-up |
| 4 | Houston Texans | JAX at HOU | 55% | Toss-up |
| 3 | Detroit Lions | DET at MIN | 53% | Toss-up |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | ATL at WAS | 53% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Pittsburgh Steelers | BAL at PIT | 51% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 15 this way
16 DAL at LAR Los Angeles Rams — 85%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Los Angeles Rams 85% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →15 DEN at LV Denver Broncos — 79%
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Denver Broncos 79% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →14 IND at TEN Indianapolis Colts — 77%
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Indianapolis Colts 77% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 NYJ at ARI Arizona Cardinals — 74%
Arizona Cardinals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Arizona Cardinals 74% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 MIA at GB Green Bay Packers — 73%
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Green Bay Packers 73% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 SEA at PHI Seattle Seahawks — 68%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Seattle Seahawks 68% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 CHI at BUF Buffalo Bills — 67%
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 67% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 NO at TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 65%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 65% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 CLE at NYG New York Giants — 64%
New York Giants owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New York Giants 64% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 NE at KC New England Patriots — 59%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. New England Patriots 59% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 CIN at CAR Carolina Panthers — 57%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Carolina Panthers 57% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 SF at LAC San Francisco 49ers — 55%
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. San Francisco 49ers 55% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 JAX at HOU Houston Texans — 55%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Houston Texans 55% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 DET at MIN Detroit Lions — 53%
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Detroit Lions 53% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 ATL at WAS Atlanta Falcons — 53%
Atlanta Falcons owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Atlanta Falcons 53% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 BAL at PIT Pittsburgh Steelers — 51%
Pittsburgh Steelers is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Pittsburgh Steelers 51% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule →