Why FSN leans San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. San Francisco 49ers 76% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 15
NFL Week 15 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 15 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Seattle Seahawks 77% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 61% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Cincinnati Bengals 60% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Green Bay Packers 78% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Jacksonville Jaguars 64% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New York Giants
New York Giants owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New York Giants 63% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Pittsburgh Steelers 66% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 71% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Indianapolis Colts 68% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Atlanta Falcons 54% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Arizona Cardinals
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Arizona Cardinals 61% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Los Angeles Rams 75% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Denver Broncos 71% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Minnesota Vikings
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Minnesota Vikings 59% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. New England Patriots 55% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 15 Confidence Picks
16 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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16
Green Bay Packers78% FSN win probability · Very High -
15
Seattle Seahawks77% FSN win probability · High -
14
San Francisco 49ers76% FSN win probability · High -
13
Los Angeles Rams75% FSN win probability · High -
12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers71% FSN win probability · High -
11
Denver Broncos71% FSN win probability · High -
10
Indianapolis Colts68% FSN win probability · Moderate -
9
Pittsburgh Steelers66% FSN win probability · Moderate -
8
Jacksonville Jaguars64% FSN win probability · Moderate -
7
New York Giants63% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
Arizona Cardinals61% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Buffalo Bills61% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
Cincinnati Bengals60% FSN win probability · Moderate -
3
Minnesota Vikings59% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
New England Patriots55% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Atlanta Falcons54% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 15 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Green Bay Packers 78% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
Straight-up favorite accuracy from stored pregame FSN predictions this season. Calibration by probability band is tracked separately.
FSN NFL Week 15 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 15 selection is Green Bay Packers at 78%. The tightest favorite is Atlanta Falcons at 54%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Green Bay Packers | MIA at GB | 78% | Very High |
| 15 | Seattle Seahawks | SEA at PHI | 77% | High |
| 14 | San Francisco 49ers | SF at LAC | 76% | High |
| 13 | Los Angeles Rams | DAL at LAR | 75% | High |
| 12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NO at TB | 71% | High |
| 11 | Denver Broncos | DEN at LV | 71% | High |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts | IND at TEN | 68% | Moderate |
| 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | BAL at PIT | 66% | Moderate |
| 8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | JAX at HOU | 64% | Moderate |
| 7 | New York Giants | CLE at NYG | 63% | Moderate |
| 6 | Arizona Cardinals | NYJ at ARI | 61% | Moderate |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | CHI at BUF | 61% | Moderate |
| 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN at CAR | 60% | Moderate |
| 3 | Minnesota Vikings | DET at MIN | 59% | Toss-up |
| 2 | New England Patriots | NE at KC | 55% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Atlanta Falcons | ATL at WAS | 54% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 15 this way
16 MIA at GB Green Bay Packers — 78%
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Green Bay Packers 78% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →15 SEA at PHI Seattle Seahawks — 77%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Seattle Seahawks 77% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →14 SF at LAC San Francisco 49ers — 76%
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. San Francisco 49ers 76% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 DAL at LAR Los Angeles Rams — 75%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Los Angeles Rams 75% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 NO at TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 71%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 71% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 DEN at LV Denver Broncos — 71%
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Denver Broncos 71% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 IND at TEN Indianapolis Colts — 68%
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Indianapolis Colts 68% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 BAL at PIT Pittsburgh Steelers — 66%
Pittsburgh Steelers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Pittsburgh Steelers 66% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 JAX at HOU Jacksonville Jaguars — 64%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Jacksonville Jaguars 64% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 CLE at NYG New York Giants — 63%
New York Giants owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New York Giants 63% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 NYJ at ARI Arizona Cardinals — 61%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Arizona Cardinals 61% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 CHI at BUF Buffalo Bills — 61%
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 61% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 CIN at CAR Cincinnati Bengals — 60%
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Cincinnati Bengals 60% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 DET at MIN Minnesota Vikings — 59%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Minnesota Vikings 59% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 NE at KC New England Patriots — 55%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. New England Patriots 55% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 ATL at WAS Atlanta Falcons — 54%
Atlanta Falcons owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Atlanta Falcons 54% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule → Play the Field Goal Kicking Game →