Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Rams 69% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 12
NFL Week 12 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 12 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Your Pick Sheet
Pick every Week 12 winner
FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Detroit Lions 50% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Dallas Cowboys 62% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 67% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Pittsburgh Steelers 52% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Cincinnati Bengals 75% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Cleveland Browns
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Cleveland Browns 59% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Houston Texans
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Houston Texans 68% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Indianapolis Colts
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Indianapolis Colts 60% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Miami Dolphins
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Miami Dolphins 56% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Minnesota Vikings 68% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Jacksonville Jaguars 92% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Arizona Cardinals 51% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
The underlying team ratings are close; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Seattle Seahawks 51% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. New England Patriots 78% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 66% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 12 Confidence Picks
16 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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16
Jacksonville Jaguars92% FSN win probability · Very High -
15
New England Patriots78% FSN win probability · High -
14
Cincinnati Bengals75% FSN win probability · High -
13
Los Angeles Rams69% FSN win probability · High -
12
Houston Texans68% FSN win probability · High -
11
Minnesota Vikings68% FSN win probability · Moderate -
10
Buffalo Bills67% FSN win probability · Moderate -
9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers66% FSN win probability · Moderate -
8
Dallas Cowboys62% FSN win probability · Moderate -
7
Indianapolis Colts60% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
Cleveland Browns59% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Miami Dolphins56% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
4
Pittsburgh Steelers52% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
3
Arizona Cardinals51% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
Seattle Seahawks51% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Detroit Lions50% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 12 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Jacksonville Jaguars 92% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
Straight-up favorite accuracy from stored pregame FSN predictions this season. Calibration by probability band is tracked separately.
FSN NFL Week 12 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 12 selection is Jacksonville Jaguars at 92%. The tightest favorite is Detroit Lions at 50%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jacksonville Jaguars | TEN at JAX | 92% | Very High |
| 15 | New England Patriots | NE at LAC | 78% | High |
| 14 | Cincinnati Bengals | NO at CIN | 75% | High |
| 13 | Los Angeles Rams | GB at LAR | 69% | High |
| 12 | Houston Texans | BAL at HOU | 68% | High |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings | ATL at MIN | 68% | Moderate |
| 10 | Buffalo Bills | KC at BUF | 67% | Moderate |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | CAR at TB | 66% | Moderate |
| 8 | Dallas Cowboys | PHI at DAL | 62% | Moderate |
| 7 | Indianapolis Colts | NYG at IND | 60% | Moderate |
| 6 | Cleveland Browns | LV at CLE | 59% | Moderate |
| 5 | Miami Dolphins | NYJ at MIA | 56% | Toss-up |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | DEN at PIT | 52% | Toss-up |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | WAS at ARI | 51% | Toss-up |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks | SEA at SF | 51% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Detroit Lions | CHI at DET | 50% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 12 this way
16 TEN at JAX Jacksonville Jaguars — 92%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Jacksonville Jaguars 92% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →15 NE at LAC New England Patriots — 78%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. New England Patriots 78% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →14 NO at CIN Cincinnati Bengals — 75%
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Cincinnati Bengals 75% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 GB at LAR Los Angeles Rams — 69%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Rams 69% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 BAL at HOU Houston Texans — 68%
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Houston Texans 68% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 ATL at MIN Minnesota Vikings — 68%
Minnesota Vikings owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Minnesota Vikings 68% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 KC at BUF Buffalo Bills — 67%
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 67% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 CAR at TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 66%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 66% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 PHI at DAL Dallas Cowboys — 62%
Dallas Cowboys owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Dallas Cowboys 62% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 NYG at IND Indianapolis Colts — 60%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Indianapolis Colts 60% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 LV at CLE Cleveland Browns — 59%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Cleveland Browns 59% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 NYJ at MIA Miami Dolphins — 56%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Miami Dolphins 56% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 DEN at PIT Pittsburgh Steelers — 52%
Pittsburgh Steelers is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Pittsburgh Steelers 52% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 WAS at ARI Arizona Cardinals — 51%
Arizona Cardinals is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Arizona Cardinals 51% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 SEA at SF Seattle Seahawks — 51%
The underlying team ratings are close; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Seattle Seahawks 51% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 CHI at DET Detroit Lions — 50%
Detroit Lions is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Detroit Lions 50% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule → Play the Field Goal Kicking Game →