Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Rams 79% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 12
NFL Week 12 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 12 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
Free to use · No login · Picks save on this device
Your Pick Sheet
Pick every Week 12 winner
FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
1Pick winners
2Optimize
3Adjust & share
16/16picks ready
Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Detroit Lions 63% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Philadelphia Eagles 62% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 65% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Denver Broncos 54% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Cincinnati Bengals
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Cincinnati Bengals 57% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Cleveland Browns 68% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Houston Texans
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Houston Texans 70% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Indianapolis Colts 75% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Miami Dolphins 72% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Minnesota Vikings 58% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Jacksonville Jaguars 89% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Arizona Cardinals
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Arizona Cardinals 56% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Seattle Seahawks 66% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. New England Patriots 62% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 62% pregame win probability.
Picks save automatically on this device.
Optimized Board
My NFL Week 12 Confidence Picks
16 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
-
16
Jacksonville Jaguars89% FSN win probability · Very High -
15
Los Angeles Rams79% FSN win probability · Very High -
14
Indianapolis Colts75% FSN win probability · High -
13
Miami Dolphins72% FSN win probability · High -
12
Houston Texans70% FSN win probability · High -
11
Cleveland Browns68% FSN win probability · Moderate -
10
Seattle Seahawks66% FSN win probability · Moderate -
9
Buffalo Bills65% FSN win probability · Moderate -
8
Detroit Lions63% FSN win probability · Moderate -
7
New England Patriots62% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers62% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Philadelphia Eagles62% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
Minnesota Vikings58% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
3
Cincinnati Bengals57% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
Arizona Cardinals56% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Denver Broncos54% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 12 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Jacksonville Jaguars 89% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
FSN stores the final pregame probability before kickoff. Once games finish, those frozen predictions become the model’s real 2026 track record.
FSN NFL Week 12 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 12 selection is Jacksonville Jaguars at 89%. The tightest favorite is Denver Broncos at 54%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jacksonville Jaguars | TEN at JAX | 89% | Very High |
| 15 | Los Angeles Rams | GB at LAR | 79% | Very High |
| 14 | Indianapolis Colts | NYG at IND | 75% | High |
| 13 | Miami Dolphins | NYJ at MIA | 72% | High |
| 12 | Houston Texans | BAL at HOU | 70% | High |
| 11 | Cleveland Browns | LV at CLE | 68% | Moderate |
| 10 | Seattle Seahawks | SEA at SF | 66% | Moderate |
| 9 | Buffalo Bills | KC at BUF | 65% | Moderate |
| 8 | Detroit Lions | CHI at DET | 63% | Moderate |
| 7 | New England Patriots | NE at LAC | 62% | Moderate |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | CAR at TB | 62% | Moderate |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | PHI at DAL | 62% | Moderate |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings | ATL at MIN | 58% | Toss-up |
| 3 | Cincinnati Bengals | NO at CIN | 57% | Toss-up |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | WAS at ARI | 56% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Denver Broncos | DEN at PIT | 54% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 12 this way
16 TEN at JAX Jacksonville Jaguars — 89%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Jacksonville Jaguars 89% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →15 GB at LAR Los Angeles Rams — 79%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Rams 79% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →14 NYG at IND Indianapolis Colts — 75%
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Indianapolis Colts 75% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 NYJ at MIA Miami Dolphins — 72%
Miami Dolphins owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Miami Dolphins 72% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 BAL at HOU Houston Texans — 70%
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Houston Texans 70% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 LV at CLE Cleveland Browns — 68%
Cleveland Browns owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Cleveland Browns 68% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 SEA at SF Seattle Seahawks — 66%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Seattle Seahawks 66% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 KC at BUF Buffalo Bills — 65%
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 65% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 CHI at DET Detroit Lions — 63%
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Detroit Lions 63% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 NE at LAC New England Patriots — 62%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. New England Patriots 62% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 CAR at TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 62%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 62% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 PHI at DAL Philadelphia Eagles — 62%
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Philadelphia Eagles 62% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 ATL at MIN Minnesota Vikings — 58%
Minnesota Vikings owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Minnesota Vikings 58% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 NO at CIN Cincinnati Bengals — 57%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Cincinnati Bengals 57% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 WAS at ARI Arizona Cardinals — 56%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Arizona Cardinals 56% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 DEN at PIT Denver Broncos — 54%
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Denver Broncos 54% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule →