Why FSN leans Houston Texans
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Houston Texans 56% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 16
NFL Week 16 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 16 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Pick every Week 16 winner
FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Chicago Bears
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Chicago Bears 56% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Denver Broncos 52% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 58% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Atlanta Falcons 52% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Baltimore Ravens 77% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Indianapolis Colts 75% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Los Angeles Chargers 64% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Minnesota Vikings 70% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New Orleans Saints 59% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. New England Patriots 85% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Pittsburgh Steelers 67% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Las Vegas Raiders
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Las Vegas Raiders 54% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. San Francisco 49ers 57% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Jacksonville Jaguars 74% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Detroit Lions 74% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 16 Confidence Picks
16 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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16
New England Patriots85% FSN win probability · Very High -
15
Baltimore Ravens77% FSN win probability · High -
14
Indianapolis Colts75% FSN win probability · High -
13
Detroit Lions74% FSN win probability · High -
12
Jacksonville Jaguars74% FSN win probability · High -
11
Minnesota Vikings70% FSN win probability · High -
10
Pittsburgh Steelers67% FSN win probability · Moderate -
9
Los Angeles Chargers64% FSN win probability · Moderate -
8
New Orleans Saints59% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
7
Seattle Seahawks58% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
6
San Francisco 49ers57% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
5
Houston Texans56% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
4
Chicago Bears56% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
3
Las Vegas Raiders54% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
Atlanta Falcons52% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Denver Broncos52% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 16 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. New England Patriots 85% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
FSN stores the final pregame probability before kickoff. Once games finish, those frozen predictions become the model’s real 2026 track record.
FSN NFL Week 16 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 16 selection is New England Patriots at 85%. The tightest favorite is Denver Broncos at 52%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | New England Patriots | NE at NYJ | 85% | Very High |
| 15 | Baltimore Ravens | CLE at BAL | 77% | High |
| 14 | Indianapolis Colts | CIN at IND | 75% | High |
| 13 | Detroit Lions | NYG at DET | 74% | High |
| 12 | Jacksonville Jaguars | JAX at DAL | 74% | High |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings | WAS at MIN | 70% | High |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | CAR at PIT | 67% | Moderate |
| 9 | Los Angeles Chargers | LAC at MIA | 64% | Moderate |
| 8 | New Orleans Saints | ARI at NO | 59% | Toss-up |
| 7 | Seattle Seahawks | LAR at SEA | 58% | Toss-up |
| 6 | San Francisco 49ers | SF at KC | 57% | Toss-up |
| 5 | Houston Texans | HOU at PHI | 56% | Toss-up |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | GB at CHI | 56% | Toss-up |
| 3 | Las Vegas Raiders | TEN at LV | 54% | Toss-up |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | TB at ATL | 52% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Denver Broncos | BUF at DEN | 52% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 16 this way
16 NE at NYJ New England Patriots — 85%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. New England Patriots 85% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →15 CLE at BAL Baltimore Ravens — 77%
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Baltimore Ravens 77% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →14 CIN at IND Indianapolis Colts — 75%
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Indianapolis Colts 75% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 NYG at DET Detroit Lions — 74%
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Detroit Lions 74% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 JAX at DAL Jacksonville Jaguars — 74%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Jacksonville Jaguars 74% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 WAS at MIN Minnesota Vikings — 70%
Minnesota Vikings owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Minnesota Vikings 70% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 CAR at PIT Pittsburgh Steelers — 67%
Pittsburgh Steelers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Pittsburgh Steelers 67% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 LAC at MIA Los Angeles Chargers — 64%
Los Angeles Chargers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Los Angeles Chargers 64% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 ARI at NO New Orleans Saints — 59%
New Orleans Saints owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New Orleans Saints 59% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 LAR at SEA Seattle Seahawks — 58%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 58% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 SF at KC San Francisco 49ers — 57%
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. San Francisco 49ers 57% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 HOU at PHI Houston Texans — 56%
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Houston Texans 56% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 GB at CHI Chicago Bears — 56%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Chicago Bears 56% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 TEN at LV Las Vegas Raiders — 54%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. Las Vegas Raiders 54% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 TB at ATL Atlanta Falcons — 52%
Atlanta Falcons is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Atlanta Falcons 52% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 BUF at DEN Denver Broncos — 52%
Denver Broncos is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Denver Broncos 52% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule →