Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Seattle Seahawks 65% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 6
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 6 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Your Pick Sheet
Pick every Week 6 winner
FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
The underlying team ratings are close. Jacksonville Jaguars 52% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Chicago Bears 54% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Baltimore Ravens 68% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Indianapolis Colts 84% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New England Patriots 90% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New York Giants
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. New York Giants 59% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Philadelphia Eagles 68% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 52% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Rams 89% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Kansas City Chiefs
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Kansas City Chiefs 60% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Buffalo Bills 80% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Green Bay Packers 68% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. San Francisco 49ers 81% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 6 Confidence Picks
14 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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14
New England Patriots90% FSN win probability · Very High -
13
Los Angeles Rams89% FSN win probability · Very High -
12
Indianapolis Colts84% FSN win probability · Very High -
11
San Francisco 49ers81% FSN win probability · Very High -
10
Buffalo Bills80% FSN win probability · Very High -
9
Philadelphia Eagles68% FSN win probability · High -
8
Baltimore Ravens68% FSN win probability · Moderate -
7
Green Bay Packers68% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
Seattle Seahawks65% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Kansas City Chiefs60% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
New York Giants59% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
3
Chicago Bears54% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers52% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Jacksonville Jaguars52% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 6 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New England Patriots 90% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
FSN stores the final pregame probability before kickoff. Once games finish, those frozen predictions become the model’s real 2026 track record.
FSN NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 6 selection is New England Patriots at 90%. The tightest favorite is Jacksonville Jaguars at 52%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | New England Patriots | NYJ at NE | 90% | Very High |
| 13 | Los Angeles Rams | ARI at LAR | 89% | Very High |
| 12 | Indianapolis Colts | TEN at IND | 84% | Very High |
| 11 | San Francisco 49ers | WAS at SF | 81% | Very High |
| 10 | Buffalo Bills | BUF at LV | 80% | Very High |
| 9 | Philadelphia Eagles | CAR at PHI | 68% | High |
| 8 | Baltimore Ravens | BAL at CLE | 68% | Moderate |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | DAL at GB | 68% | Moderate |
| 6 | Seattle Seahawks | SEA at DEN | 65% | Moderate |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | LAC at KC | 60% | Moderate |
| 4 | New York Giants | NO at NYG | 59% | Toss-up |
| 3 | Chicago Bears | CHI at ATL | 54% | Toss-up |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | PIT at TB | 52% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | HOU at JAX | 52% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 6 this way
14 NYJ at NE New England Patriots — 90%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New England Patriots 90% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 ARI at LAR Los Angeles Rams — 89%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Rams 89% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 TEN at IND Indianapolis Colts — 84%
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Indianapolis Colts 84% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 WAS at SF San Francisco 49ers — 81%
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. San Francisco 49ers 81% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 BUF at LV Buffalo Bills — 80%
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Buffalo Bills 80% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 CAR at PHI Philadelphia Eagles — 68%
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Philadelphia Eagles 68% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 BAL at CLE Baltimore Ravens — 68%
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Baltimore Ravens 68% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 DAL at GB Green Bay Packers — 68%
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Green Bay Packers 68% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 SEA at DEN Seattle Seahawks — 65%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Seattle Seahawks 65% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 LAC at KC Kansas City Chiefs — 60%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Kansas City Chiefs 60% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 NO at NYG New York Giants — 59%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick. New York Giants 59% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 CHI at ATL Chicago Bears — 54%
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Chicago Bears 54% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 PIT at TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 52%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 52% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 HOU at JAX Jacksonville Jaguars — 52%
The underlying team ratings are close. Jacksonville Jaguars 52% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule →