Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Seattle Seahawks 62% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 6
NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 6 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Your Pick Sheet
Pick every Week 6 winner
FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating. Jacksonville Jaguars 68% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Chicago Bears 56% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Baltimore Ravens 67% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Indianapolis Colts 84% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New England Patriots 88% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New York Giants
New York Giants owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New York Giants 63% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Philadelphia Eagles 56% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Pittsburgh Steelers 52% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Rams 88% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Kansas City Chiefs 79% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Buffalo Bills 77% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Green Bay Packers 62% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. San Francisco 49ers 89% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 6 Confidence Picks
14 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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14
San Francisco 49ers89% FSN win probability · Very High -
13
New England Patriots88% FSN win probability · Very High -
12
Los Angeles Rams88% FSN win probability · Very High -
11
Indianapolis Colts84% FSN win probability · Very High -
10
Kansas City Chiefs79% FSN win probability · Very High -
9
Buffalo Bills77% FSN win probability · High -
8
Jacksonville Jaguars68% FSN win probability · High -
7
Baltimore Ravens67% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
New York Giants63% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Green Bay Packers62% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
Seattle Seahawks62% FSN win probability · Moderate -
3
Philadelphia Eagles56% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
Chicago Bears56% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Pittsburgh Steelers52% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 6 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. San Francisco 49ers 89% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
Straight-up favorite accuracy from stored pregame FSN predictions this season. Calibration by probability band is tracked separately.
FSN NFL Week 6 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 6 selection is San Francisco 49ers at 89%. The tightest favorite is Pittsburgh Steelers at 52%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | San Francisco 49ers | WAS at SF | 89% | Very High |
| 13 | New England Patriots | NYJ at NE | 88% | Very High |
| 12 | Los Angeles Rams | ARI at LAR | 88% | Very High |
| 11 | Indianapolis Colts | TEN at IND | 84% | Very High |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | LAC at KC | 79% | Very High |
| 9 | Buffalo Bills | BUF at LV | 77% | High |
| 8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | HOU at JAX | 68% | High |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | BAL at CLE | 67% | Moderate |
| 6 | New York Giants | NO at NYG | 63% | Moderate |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | DAL at GB | 62% | Moderate |
| 4 | Seattle Seahawks | SEA at DEN | 62% | Moderate |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | CAR at PHI | 56% | Toss-up |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | CHI at ATL | 56% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Pittsburgh Steelers | PIT at TB | 52% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 6 this way
14 WAS at SF San Francisco 49ers — 89%
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. San Francisco 49ers 89% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 NYJ at NE New England Patriots — 88%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New England Patriots 88% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 ARI at LAR Los Angeles Rams — 88%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Rams 88% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 TEN at IND Indianapolis Colts — 84%
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Indianapolis Colts 84% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 LAC at KC Kansas City Chiefs — 79%
Kansas City Chiefs owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Kansas City Chiefs 79% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 BUF at LV Buffalo Bills — 77%
Buffalo Bills owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Buffalo Bills 77% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 HOU at JAX Jacksonville Jaguars — 68%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating. Jacksonville Jaguars 68% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 BAL at CLE Baltimore Ravens — 67%
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Baltimore Ravens 67% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 NO at NYG New York Giants — 63%
New York Giants owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New York Giants 63% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 DAL at GB Green Bay Packers — 62%
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Green Bay Packers 62% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 SEA at DEN Seattle Seahawks — 62%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Seattle Seahawks 62% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 CAR at PHI Philadelphia Eagles — 56%
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Philadelphia Eagles 56% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 CHI at ATL Chicago Bears — 56%
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Chicago Bears 56% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 PIT at TB Pittsburgh Steelers — 52%
Pittsburgh Steelers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Pittsburgh Steelers 52% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule → Play the Field Goal Kicking Game →