Why FSN leans Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Pittsburgh Steelers 64% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 4
NFL Week 4 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 4 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating. Indianapolis Colts 74% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Baltimore Ravens 82% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 52% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Chicago Bears 84% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Jacksonville Jaguars 75% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Houston Texans
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Houston Texans 81% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New York Giants
New York Giants owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New York Giants 62% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Los Angeles Rams 68% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Green Bay Packers 53% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Minnesota Vikings 69% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Kansas City Chiefs 74% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 80% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. San Francisco 49ers 59% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Detroit Lions 64% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Atlanta Falcons 52% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 4 Confidence Picks
16 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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16
Chicago Bears84% FSN win probability · Very High -
15
Baltimore Ravens82% FSN win probability · Very High -
14
Houston Texans81% FSN win probability · Very High -
13
Seattle Seahawks80% FSN win probability · Very High -
12
Jacksonville Jaguars75% FSN win probability · High -
11
Indianapolis Colts74% FSN win probability · High -
10
Kansas City Chiefs74% FSN win probability · High -
9
Minnesota Vikings69% FSN win probability · High -
8
Los Angeles Rams68% FSN win probability · Moderate -
7
Detroit Lions64% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
Pittsburgh Steelers64% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
New York Giants62% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
San Francisco 49ers59% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
3
Green Bay Packers53% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
Buffalo Bills52% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Atlanta Falcons52% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 4 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Chicago Bears 84% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
FSN stores the final pregame probability before kickoff. Once games finish, those frozen predictions become the model’s real 2026 track record.
FSN NFL Week 4 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 4 selection is Chicago Bears at 84%. The tightest favorite is Atlanta Falcons at 52%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Chicago Bears | NYJ at CHI | 84% | Very High |
| 15 | Baltimore Ravens | TEN at BAL | 82% | Very High |
| 14 | Houston Texans | DAL at HOU | 81% | Very High |
| 13 | Seattle Seahawks | LAC at SEA | 80% | Very High |
| 12 | Jacksonville Jaguars | JAX at CIN | 75% | High |
| 11 | Indianapolis Colts | IND at WAS | 74% | High |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | KC at LV | 74% | High |
| 9 | Minnesota Vikings | MIA at MIN | 69% | High |
| 8 | Los Angeles Rams | LAR at PHI | 68% | Moderate |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | DET at CAR | 64% | Moderate |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | PIT at CLE | 64% | Moderate |
| 5 | New York Giants | ARI at NYG | 62% | Moderate |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | DEN at SF | 59% | Toss-up |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | GB at TB | 53% | Toss-up |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | NE at BUF | 52% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Atlanta Falcons | ATL at NO | 52% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 4 this way
16 NYJ at CHI Chicago Bears — 84%
Chicago Bears owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Chicago Bears 84% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →15 TEN at BAL Baltimore Ravens — 82%
Baltimore Ravens owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Baltimore Ravens 82% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →14 DAL at HOU Houston Texans — 81%
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Houston Texans 81% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 LAC at SEA Seattle Seahawks — 80%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Seattle Seahawks 80% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 JAX at CIN Jacksonville Jaguars — 75%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Jacksonville Jaguars 75% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 IND at WAS Indianapolis Colts — 74%
Indianapolis Colts owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating. Indianapolis Colts 74% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 KC at LV Kansas City Chiefs — 74%
Kansas City Chiefs owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Kansas City Chiefs 74% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 MIA at MIN Minnesota Vikings — 69%
Minnesota Vikings owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Minnesota Vikings 69% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 LAR at PHI Los Angeles Rams — 68%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Los Angeles Rams 68% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 DET at CAR Detroit Lions — 64%
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Detroit Lions 64% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 PIT at CLE Pittsburgh Steelers — 64%
Pittsburgh Steelers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Pittsburgh Steelers 64% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 ARI at NYG New York Giants — 62%
New York Giants owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. New York Giants 62% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 DEN at SF San Francisco 49ers — 59%
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. San Francisco 49ers 59% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 GB at TB Green Bay Packers — 53%
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Green Bay Packers 53% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 NE at BUF Buffalo Bills — 52%
Buffalo Bills is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick. Buffalo Bills 52% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 ATL at NO Atlanta Falcons — 52%
Atlanta Falcons owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Atlanta Falcons 52% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule →