Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Rams 65% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 13
NFL Week 13 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 13 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Detroit Lions 61% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Jacksonville Jaguars 54% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Cincinnati Bengals 67% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Green Bay Packers 66% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. San Francisco 49ers 72% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 70% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Washington Commanders 60% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Philadelphia Eagles 53% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Denver Broncos 83% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Minnesota Vikings 75% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. New England Patriots 51% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Pittsburgh Steelers
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Pittsburgh Steelers 57% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Seattle Seahawks 79% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 13 Confidence Picks
14 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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14
Denver Broncos83% FSN win probability · Very High -
13
Seattle Seahawks79% FSN win probability · Very High -
12
Minnesota Vikings75% FSN win probability · High -
11
San Francisco 49ers72% FSN win probability · High -
10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers70% FSN win probability · High -
9
Cincinnati Bengals67% FSN win probability · Moderate -
8
Green Bay Packers66% FSN win probability · Moderate -
7
Los Angeles Rams65% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
Detroit Lions61% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Washington Commanders60% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
Pittsburgh Steelers57% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
3
Jacksonville Jaguars54% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
Philadelphia Eagles53% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
New England Patriots51% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 13 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Denver Broncos 83% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
Straight-up favorite accuracy from stored pregame FSN predictions this season. Calibration by probability band is tracked separately.
FSN NFL Week 13 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 13 selection is Denver Broncos at 83%. The tightest favorite is New England Patriots at 51%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Denver Broncos | MIA at DEN | 83% | Very High |
| 13 | Seattle Seahawks | DAL at SEA | 79% | Very High |
| 12 | Minnesota Vikings | CAR at MIN | 75% | High |
| 11 | San Francisco 49ers | SF at NYG | 72% | High |
| 10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | LAC at TB | 70% | High |
| 9 | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN at CLE | 67% | Moderate |
| 8 | Green Bay Packers | GB at NO | 66% | Moderate |
| 7 | Los Angeles Rams | KC at LAR | 65% | Moderate |
| 6 | Detroit Lions | DET at ATL | 61% | Moderate |
| 5 | Washington Commanders | WAS at TEN | 60% | Moderate |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | HOU at PIT | 57% | Toss-up |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | JAX at CHI | 54% | Toss-up |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | PHI at ARI | 53% | Toss-up |
| 1 | New England Patriots | BUF at NE | 51% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 13 this way
14 MIA at DEN Denver Broncos — 83%
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Denver Broncos 83% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 DAL at SEA Seattle Seahawks — 79%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Seattle Seahawks 79% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 CAR at MIN Minnesota Vikings — 75%
Minnesota Vikings owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Minnesota Vikings 75% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 SF at NYG San Francisco 49ers — 72%
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. San Francisco 49ers 72% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 LAC at TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 70%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 70% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 CIN at CLE Cincinnati Bengals — 67%
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Cincinnati Bengals 67% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 GB at NO Green Bay Packers — 66%
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Green Bay Packers 66% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 KC at LAR Los Angeles Rams — 65%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Rams 65% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 DET at ATL Detroit Lions — 61%
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Detroit Lions 61% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 WAS at TEN Washington Commanders — 60%
Washington Commanders owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Washington Commanders 60% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 HOU at PIT Pittsburgh Steelers — 57%
The underlying team ratings are close; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Pittsburgh Steelers 57% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 JAX at CHI Jacksonville Jaguars — 54%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Jacksonville Jaguars 54% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 PHI at ARI Philadelphia Eagles — 53%
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Philadelphia Eagles 53% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 BUF at NE New England Patriots — 51%
New England Patriots is overcoming a weaker neutral-field rating in this projection; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. New England Patriots 51% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule → Play the Field Goal Kicking Game →