Why FSN leans Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Rams 79% pregame win probability.
2026 NFL Week 13
NFL Week 13 Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
Build your 2026 Week 13 pick sheet, compare FSN pregame win probabilities, and rank every selection from highest confidence to biggest risk.
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Your Pick Sheet
Pick every Week 13 winner
FSN favorites are preselected. Flip any matchup where you disagree, then optimize the confidence points.
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Why FSN leans Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Detroit Lions 63% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Jacksonville Jaguars 61% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Cincinnati Bengals 51% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Green Bay Packers 63% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. San Francisco 49ers 68% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Los Angeles Chargers 52% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Washington Commanders 54% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Philadelphia Eagles 68% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Denver Broncos 79% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Minnesota Vikings 65% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans New England Patriots
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. New England Patriots 58% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Houston Texans
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Houston Texans 61% pregame win probability.
Why FSN leans Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Seattle Seahawks 87% pregame win probability.
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Optimized Board
My NFL Week 13 Confidence Picks
14 = most confident · 1 = riskiest. Selections are ranked by FSN pregame win probability; use the arrows for your final adjustments.
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14
Seattle Seahawks87% FSN win probability · Very High -
13
Los Angeles Rams79% FSN win probability · Very High -
12
Denver Broncos79% FSN win probability · Very High -
11
Philadelphia Eagles68% FSN win probability · High -
10
San Francisco 49ers68% FSN win probability · Moderate -
9
Minnesota Vikings65% FSN win probability · Moderate -
8
Detroit Lions63% FSN win probability · Moderate -
7
Green Bay Packers63% FSN win probability · Moderate -
6
Houston Texans61% FSN win probability · Moderate -
5
Jacksonville Jaguars61% FSN win probability · Moderate -
4
New England Patriots58% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
3
Washington Commanders54% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
2
Los Angeles Chargers52% FSN win probability · Toss-up -
1
Cincinnati Bengals51% FSN win probability · Toss-up
At a Glance
NFL Week 13 Quick Takeaways
The fastest way to spot the safest favorite, the closest call, and how much 2026 model history is available so far.
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Seattle Seahawks 87% pregame win probability.
This is the lowest-probability favorite on the board, making it the natural place to keep confidence points low.
FSN stores the final pregame probability before kickoff. Once games finish, those frozen predictions become the model’s real 2026 track record.
FSN NFL Week 13 Confidence Pool Rankings
FSN’s highest-confidence Week 13 selection is Seattle Seahawks at 87%. The tightest favorite is Cincinnati Bengals at 51%, so that matchup belongs near the bottom of a traditional confidence card unless your own read says otherwise.
| Pts | FSN Pick | Matchup | Win Prob. | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Seattle Seahawks | DAL at SEA | 87% | Very High |
| 13 | Los Angeles Rams | KC at LAR | 79% | Very High |
| 12 | Denver Broncos | MIA at DEN | 79% | Very High |
| 11 | Philadelphia Eagles | PHI at ARI | 68% | High |
| 10 | San Francisco 49ers | SF at NYG | 68% | Moderate |
| 9 | Minnesota Vikings | CAR at MIN | 65% | Moderate |
| 8 | Detroit Lions | DET at ATL | 63% | Moderate |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | GB at NO | 63% | Moderate |
| 6 | Houston Texans | HOU at PIT | 61% | Moderate |
| 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | JAX at CHI | 61% | Moderate |
| 4 | New England Patriots | BUF at NE | 58% | Toss-up |
| 3 | Washington Commanders | WAS at TEN | 54% | Toss-up |
| 2 | Los Angeles Chargers | LAC at TB | 52% | Toss-up |
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN at CLE | 51% | Toss-up |
Matchup Context
Why the model ranks Week 13 this way
14 DAL at SEA Seattle Seahawks — 87%
Seattle Seahawks owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. Seattle Seahawks 87% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →13 KC at LAR Los Angeles Rams — 79%
Los Angeles Rams owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Los Angeles Rams 79% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →12 MIA at DEN Denver Broncos — 79%
Denver Broncos owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest also helps. Denver Broncos 79% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →11 PHI at ARI Philadelphia Eagles — 68%
Philadelphia Eagles owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Philadelphia Eagles 68% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →10 SF at NYG San Francisco 49ers — 68%
San Francisco 49ers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. San Francisco 49ers 68% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →9 CAR at MIN Minnesota Vikings — 65%
Minnesota Vikings owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick. Minnesota Vikings 65% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →8 DET at ATL Detroit Lions — 63%
Detroit Lions owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Detroit Lions 63% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →7 GB at NO Green Bay Packers — 63%
Green Bay Packers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest also helps. Green Bay Packers 63% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →6 HOU at PIT Houston Texans — 61%
Houston Texans owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Houston Texans 61% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →5 JAX at CHI Jacksonville Jaguars — 61%
Jacksonville Jaguars owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage; rest works against it. Jacksonville Jaguars 61% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →4 BUF at NE New England Patriots — 58%
New England Patriots owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; home field helps the pick; rest works against it. New England Patriots 58% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →3 WAS at TEN Washington Commanders — 54%
Washington Commanders owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Washington Commanders 54% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →2 LAC at TB Los Angeles Chargers — 52%
Los Angeles Chargers owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Los Angeles Chargers 52% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →1 CIN at CLE Cincinnati Bengals — 51%
Cincinnati Bengals owns the stronger opponent-adjusted team rating; the pick must overcome home-field disadvantage. Cincinnati Bengals 51% pregame win probability.
Open matchup Game Center →
Transparent by Design
How FSN calculates NFL win probability
The v1 model starts with opponent-adjusted scoring margin from completed regular-season games. Prior-season results are discounted and regressed toward league average; current-season results receive more weight as they arrive. FSN then adds a modest home-field adjustment and a capped rest differential before converting the projected point margin into a win probability.
Game schedules and results flow through FSN Data from its nflverse feed. The model is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical percentages. It does not use random 50/50 assignments, and the current version does not pretend to quantify every injury, weather change, or late-breaking roster development.
- Prior-season weight
- 0.35×
- Current-season weight
- 1.00×
- Home field
- 1.5 pts
- Probability cap
- 92%
How to use a confidence pool optimizer
- Choose the winner of every NFL game on the weekly card.
- Run the optimizer to rank your selected winners by their FSN pregame probability.
- Keep risky upsets near the bottom and stronger favorites near the top.
- Use the arrows to override the model where your pool strategy or football read differs.
What confidence points mean
In a standard confidence pool, every game gets a unique point value. The pick you trust most receives the highest number available that week; your least-confident pick gets 1. If the pick wins, you earn those points. Pool rules vary, so always check your host’s scoring format.
Check the full NFL scores & schedule →