FSN SMART SIM · 2026 WEEK 4

NFL Week 4 Predictions

Every 2026 NFL Week 4 matchup, projected with FSN’s Smart Game Simulator. Compare predicted winners, win probabilities and projected scores, then open any upcoming matchup to run 1,000, 10,000 or 50,000 simulations.

10,000 sims defaultReal player dataTransparent factorsPregame snapshots

MODEL FSN-SIM-1.0

Live forecasts update until kickoff; completed games keep their last pregame snapshot.

Data updated 25 minutes ago

NFL PREDICTIONS Week 4 Oct 1–Oct 5

2026 NFL WEEK 4

NFL Week 4 Predictions: Every Game

These are server-rendered FSN model forecasts, not sportsbook picks. Upcoming games continue to update as new results, player data and injury information become available. Once a game starts, its last pregame forecast is frozen for transparent historical tracking.

Thu, Oct 1 · 8:15 PM ET FINAL

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Prediction

PITPittsburgh Steelers 21

CLECleveland Browns 20

FSN PICK Pittsburgh Steelers 52%

FSN gives the Pittsburgh Steelers a 52% win probability against the Cleveland Browns, with a projected score of Pittsburgh Steelers 21, Cleveland Browns 20. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Pittsburgh Steelers.

Actual result Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Cleveland Browns 27 Upset / miss

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Sun, Oct 4 · 9:30 AM ET FINAL

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders Prediction

INDIndianapolis Colts 28

WASWashington Commanders 24

FSN PICK Indianapolis Colts 68%

FSN gives the Indianapolis Colts a 68% win probability against the Washington Commanders, with a projected score of Indianapolis Colts 28, Washington Commanders 24. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Indianapolis Colts.

Actual result Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 Pick correct

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Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens Prediction

TENTennessee Titans 15

BALBaltimore Ravens 29

FSN PICK Baltimore Ravens 90%

FSN gives the Baltimore Ravens a 90% win probability against the Tennessee Titans, with a projected score of Tennessee Titans 15, Baltimore Ravens 29. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Baltimore Ravens.

Actual result Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 Pick correct

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Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Prediction

NENew England Patriots 18

BUFBuffalo Bills 28

FSN PICK Buffalo Bills 82%

FSN gives the Buffalo Bills a 82% win probability against the New England Patriots, with a projected score of New England Patriots 18, Buffalo Bills 28. The largest current model driver is quarterback form / availability, which leans toward Buffalo Bills.

Actual result New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 Upset / miss

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Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

New York Jets at Chicago Bears Prediction

NYJNew York Jets 16

CHIChicago Bears 29

FSN PICK Chicago Bears 88%

FSN gives the Chicago Bears a 88% win probability against the New York Jets, with a projected score of New York Jets 16, Chicago Bears 29. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Chicago Bears.

Actual result New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23 Pick correct

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Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals Prediction

JAXJacksonville Jaguars 26

CINCincinnati Bengals 19

FSN PICK Jacksonville Jaguars 73%

FSN gives the Jacksonville Jaguars a 73% win probability against the Cincinnati Bengals, with a projected score of Jacksonville Jaguars 26, Cincinnati Bengals 19. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Jacksonville Jaguars.

Actual result Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 Pick correct

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Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans Prediction

DALDallas Cowboys 23

HOUHouston Texans 25

FSN PICK Houston Texans 58%

FSN gives the Houston Texans a 58% win probability against the Dallas Cowboys, with a projected score of Dallas Cowboys 23, Houston Texans 25. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Houston Texans.

Actual result Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 Upset / miss

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Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants Prediction

ARIArizona Cardinals 21

NYGNew York Giants 22

FSN PICK New York Giants 54%

FSN gives the New York Giants a 54% win probability against the Arizona Cardinals, with a projected score of Arizona Cardinals 21, New York Giants 22. The largest current model driver is venue / home field, which leans toward New York Giants.

Actual result Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 Pick correct

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Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles Prediction

LARLos Angeles Rams 25

PHIPhiladelphia Eagles 18

FSN PICK Los Angeles Rams 76%

FSN gives the Los Angeles Rams a 76% win probability against the Philadelphia Eagles, with a projected score of Los Angeles Rams 25, Philadelphia Eagles 18. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Los Angeles Rams.

Actual result Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 Pick correct

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Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction

GBGreen Bay Packers 23

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers 23

FSN PICK Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51%

FSN gives the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 51% win probability against the Green Bay Packers, with a projected score of Green Bay Packers 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23. The largest current model driver is venue / home field, which leans toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Actual result Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 Upset / miss

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Sun, Oct 4 · 4:05 PM ET FINAL

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings Prediction

MIAMiami Dolphins 14

MINMinnesota Vikings 26

FSN PICK Minnesota Vikings 87%

FSN gives the Minnesota Vikings a 87% win probability against the Miami Dolphins, with a projected score of Miami Dolphins 14, Minnesota Vikings 26. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Minnesota Vikings.

Actual result Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15 Pick correct

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Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET FINAL

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

KCKansas City Chiefs 26

LVLas Vegas Raiders 20

FSN PICK Kansas City Chiefs 71%

FSN gives the Kansas City Chiefs a 71% win probability against the Las Vegas Raiders, with a projected score of Kansas City Chiefs 26, Las Vegas Raiders 20. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Kansas City Chiefs.

Actual result Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 Pick correct

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Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET FINAL

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks Prediction

LACLos Angeles Chargers 13

SEASeattle Seahawks 29

FSN PICK Seattle Seahawks 92%

FSN gives the Seattle Seahawks a 92% win probability against the Los Angeles Chargers, with a projected score of Los Angeles Chargers 13, Seattle Seahawks 29. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Seattle Seahawks.

Actual result Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30 Pick correct

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Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET FINAL

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers Prediction

DENDenver Broncos 19

SFSan Francisco 49ers 28

FSN PICK San Francisco 49ers 81%

FSN gives the San Francisco 49ers a 81% win probability against the Denver Broncos, with a projected score of Denver Broncos 19, San Francisco 49ers 28. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward San Francisco 49ers.

Actual result Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 Pick correct

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Sun, Oct 4 · 8:20 PM ET FINAL

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers Prediction

DETDetroit Lions 30

CARCarolina Panthers 26

FSN PICK Detroit Lions 67%

FSN gives the Detroit Lions a 67% win probability against the Carolina Panthers, with a projected score of Detroit Lions 30, Carolina Panthers 26. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Detroit Lions.

Actual result Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 Upset / miss

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Mon, Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ET FINAL

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Prediction

ATLAtlanta Falcons 22

NONew Orleans Saints 25

FSN PICK New Orleans Saints 61%

FSN gives the New Orleans Saints a 61% win probability against the Atlanta Falcons, with a projected score of Atlanta Falcons 22, New Orleans Saints 25. The largest current model driver is venue / home field, which leans toward New Orleans Saints.

Actual result Atlanta Falcons 45, New Orleans Saints 24 Upset / miss

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WEEK ARCHIVE

Week 4 is complete

Interactive simulations close after kickoff so the model cannot use information learned during or after the game. The cards above preserve FSN’s final pregame forecast beside the actual result.

HOW IT WORKS

A prediction tool that shows its work

FSN begins with its opponent-adjusted team rating, then layers in smaller matchup adjustments from recent results, weekly EPA/CPOE efficiency, quarterback efficiency, current injury reports, pass rush and interceptions, kicking, rest, venue and travel. Market spread/total data is used only as a capped reality check when it exists. The resulting expected margin and total become the center of a score distribution that the browser samples thousands of times.

The simulator is probabilistic, not a claim that a game will finish at one exact score. A 64% favorite still loses roughly one out of three comparable simulations. Football remains delightfully rude to certainty.

NFL SIMULATOR FAQ

How FSN weekly predictions update

Do NFL Week predictions recalculate after games are played?

Yes. Future matchups are rebuilt from the latest available team ratings, current-season results, weekly player and team efficiency data, injuries and matchup context. A Week 2 forecast can use Week 1 data; a Week 5 forecast can use Weeks 1–4.

Does FSN change an old prediction after kickoff?

No. Once kickoff passes, FSN uses the final stored pregame Smart Simulator snapshot for the historical weekly page. That prevents future information from leaking backward into old predictions.

Is the projected score supposed to be exact?

No. The projected score is the center of a probability distribution. The Monte Carlo simulation samples thousands of plausible scoring outcomes around that expectation to estimate win probability and score ranges.

Does FSN use betting lines to make the prediction?

Market spread and total data can be used as a deliberately capped sanity check when available, but they are not the primary model. FSN’s team, player, injury and matchup inputs drive the forecast.

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