FSN SMART SIM · 2026 WEEK 5

NFL Week 5 Predictions

Every 2026 NFL Week 5 matchup, projected with FSN’s Smart Game Simulator. Compare predicted winners, win probabilities and projected scores, then open any upcoming matchup to run 1,000, 10,000 or 50,000 simulations.

10,000 sims defaultReal player dataTransparent factorsPregame snapshots

MODEL FSN-SIM-1.0

Live forecasts update until kickoff; completed games keep their last pregame snapshot.

Data updated 25 minutes ago

NFL PREDICTIONS Week 5 Oct 8–Oct 12

2026 NFL WEEK 5

NFL Week 5 Predictions: Every Game

These are server-rendered FSN model forecasts, not sportsbook picks. Upcoming games continue to update as new results, player data and injury information become available. Once a game starts, its last pregame forecast is frozen for transparent historical tracking.

Thu, Oct 8 · 8:15 PM ET FINAL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys Prediction

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers 21

DALDallas Cowboys 29

FSN PICK Dallas Cowboys 78%

FSN gives the Dallas Cowboys a 78% win probability against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with a projected score of Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21, Dallas Cowboys 29. The largest current model driver is epa offense / defense efficiency, which leans toward Dallas Cowboys.

Actual result Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Dallas Cowboys 16 Upset / miss

Game Center →

Sun, Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET FINAL

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction

PHIPhiladelphia Eagles 13

JAXJacksonville Jaguars 28

FSN PICK Jacksonville Jaguars 92%

FSN gives the Jacksonville Jaguars a 92% win probability against the Philadelphia Eagles, with a projected score of Philadelphia Eagles 13, Jacksonville Jaguars 28. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Jacksonville Jaguars.

Actual result Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 Pick correct

Game Center →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Prediction

CHIChicago Bears 25

GBGreen Bay Packers 19

FSN PICK Chicago Bears 72%

FSN gives the Chicago Bears a 72% win probability against the Green Bay Packers, with a projected score of Chicago Bears 25, Green Bay Packers 19. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Chicago Bears.

Actual result Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 Upset / miss

Game Center →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins Prediction

CINCincinnati Bengals 25

MIAMiami Dolphins 17

FSN PICK Cincinnati Bengals 79%

FSN gives the Cincinnati Bengals a 79% win probability against the Miami Dolphins, with a projected score of Cincinnati Bengals 25, Miami Dolphins 17. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Cincinnati Bengals.

Actual result Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24 Pick correct

Game Center →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots Prediction

LVLas Vegas Raiders 19

NENew England Patriots 24

FSN PICK New England Patriots 65%

FSN gives the New England Patriots a 65% win probability against the Las Vegas Raiders, with a projected score of Las Vegas Raiders 19, New England Patriots 24. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward New England Patriots.

Actual result Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 Pick correct

Game Center →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints Prediction

MINMinnesota Vikings 25

NONew Orleans Saints 20

FSN PICK Minnesota Vikings 68%

FSN gives the Minnesota Vikings a 68% win probability against the New Orleans Saints, with a projected score of Minnesota Vikings 25, New Orleans Saints 20. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Minnesota Vikings.

Actual result Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 Pick correct

Game Center →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets Prediction

CLECleveland Browns 22

NYJNew York Jets 20

FSN PICK Cleveland Browns 57%

FSN gives the Cleveland Browns a 57% win probability against the New York Jets, with a projected score of Cleveland Browns 22, New York Jets 20. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Cleveland Browns.

Actual result Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 Upset / miss

Game Center →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction

INDIndianapolis Colts 23

PITPittsburgh Steelers 23

FSN PICK Pittsburgh Steelers 52%

FSN gives the Pittsburgh Steelers a 52% win probability against the Indianapolis Colts, with a projected score of Indianapolis Colts 23, Pittsburgh Steelers 23. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Indianapolis Colts.

Actual result Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 Pick correct

Game Center →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans Prediction

HOUHouston Texans 25

TENTennessee Titans 16

FSN PICK Houston Texans 79%

FSN gives the Houston Texans a 79% win probability against the Tennessee Titans, with a projected score of Houston Texans 25, Tennessee Titans 16. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Houston Texans.

Actual result Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 Pick correct

Game Center →

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET FINAL

New York Giants at Washington Commanders Prediction

NYGNew York Giants 24

WASWashington Commanders 22

FSN PICK New York Giants 58%

FSN gives the New York Giants a 58% win probability against the Washington Commanders, with a projected score of New York Giants 24, Washington Commanders 22. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward New York Giants.

Actual result New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27

Game Center →

Sun, Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET FINAL

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers Prediction

DENDenver Broncos 24

LACLos Angeles Chargers 18

FSN PICK Denver Broncos 72%

FSN gives the Denver Broncos a 72% win probability against the Los Angeles Chargers, with a projected score of Denver Broncos 24, Los Angeles Chargers 18. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Denver Broncos.

Actual result Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 Pick correct

Game Center →

Sun, Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET FINAL

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals Prediction

DETDetroit Lions 32

ARIArizona Cardinals 24

FSN PICK Detroit Lions 78%

FSN gives the Detroit Lions a 78% win probability against the Arizona Cardinals, with a projected score of Detroit Lions 32, Arizona Cardinals 24. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Detroit Lions.

Actual result Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 Pick correct

Game Center →

Sun, Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET FINAL

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks Prediction

SFSan Francisco 49ers 22

SEASeattle Seahawks 23

FSN PICK Seattle Seahawks 53%

FSN gives the Seattle Seahawks a 53% win probability against the San Francisco 49ers, with a projected score of San Francisco 49ers 22, Seattle Seahawks 23. The largest current model driver is epa offense / defense efficiency, which leans toward San Francisco 49ers.

Actual result San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 Upset / miss

Game Center →

Sun, Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ET FINAL

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons Prediction

BALBaltimore Ravens 25

ATLAtlanta Falcons 24

FSN PICK Baltimore Ravens 53%

FSN gives the Baltimore Ravens a 53% win probability against the Atlanta Falcons, with a projected score of Baltimore Ravens 25, Atlanta Falcons 24. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Baltimore Ravens.

Actual result Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 Pick correct

Game Center →

Mon, Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET FINAL

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams Prediction

BUFBuffalo Bills 25

LARLos Angeles Rams 26

FSN PICK Los Angeles Rams 51%

FSN gives the Los Angeles Rams a 51% win probability against the Buffalo Bills, with a projected score of Buffalo Bills 25, Los Angeles Rams 26. The largest current model driver is quarterback form / availability, which leans toward Buffalo Bills.

Actual result Buffalo Bills 37, Los Angeles Rams 34 Upset / miss

Game Center →

WEEK ARCHIVE

Week 5 is complete

Interactive simulations close after kickoff so the model cannot use information learned during or after the game. The cards above preserve FSN’s final pregame forecast beside the actual result.

HOW IT WORKS

A prediction tool that shows its work

FSN begins with its opponent-adjusted team rating, then layers in smaller matchup adjustments from recent results, weekly EPA/CPOE efficiency, quarterback efficiency, current injury reports, pass rush and interceptions, kicking, rest, venue and travel. Market spread/total data is used only as a capped reality check when it exists. The resulting expected margin and total become the center of a score distribution that the browser samples thousands of times.

The simulator is probabilistic, not a claim that a game will finish at one exact score. A 64% favorite still loses roughly one out of three comparable simulations. Football remains delightfully rude to certainty.

NFL SIMULATOR FAQ

How FSN weekly predictions update

Do NFL Week predictions recalculate after games are played?

Yes. Future matchups are rebuilt from the latest available team ratings, current-season results, weekly player and team efficiency data, injuries and matchup context. A Week 2 forecast can use Week 1 data; a Week 5 forecast can use Weeks 1–4.

Does FSN change an old prediction after kickoff?

No. Once kickoff passes, FSN uses the final stored pregame Smart Simulator snapshot for the historical weekly page. That prevents future information from leaking backward into old predictions.

Is the projected score supposed to be exact?

No. The projected score is the center of a probability distribution. The Monte Carlo simulation samples thousands of plausible scoring outcomes around that expectation to estimate win probability and score ranges.

Does FSN use betting lines to make the prediction?

Market spread and total data can be used as a deliberately capped sanity check when available, but they are not the primary model. FSN’s team, player, injury and matchup inputs drive the forecast.

MORE FSN TOOLS

NFL Confidence Pool PicksRank Week 5 winners → Field Goal Kicking GameFlick kicks, wind and leaderboards → NFL Playoff PredictorSim the season to a Super Bowl winner → NFL Scores & Game CenterFollow every game →