How does the FSN NFL playoff predictor work?

FSN simulates every remaining regular-season game from its Smart Simulator probabilities, applies NFL-style division and wild-card tiebreaking, seeds both conferences and then simulates the reseeded postseason through the Super Bowl.

Do the playoff odds update every week?

Yes. Current forecasts rebuild as new results, team efficiency, quarterback performance and other model inputs become available. Weekly snapshots are preserved so old forecasts are not rewritten by future information.

What does if the playoffs started today mean?

It is a standings-based snapshot of the seven teams in each conference that would occupy playoff positions using the games already completed, separate from FSN’s rest-of-season projected playoff field.

2026 NFL · FSN-SEASON-SIM-1.2

NFL Week 5 Playoff Predictions

This is FSN’s saved Week 5 forecast: the playoff field, seed probabilities, conference-title chances and Super Bowl odds exactly as the model saw them at that checkpoint.

See all 32 team odds ↓ Projected playoff bracket ↓ Current live forecast →

MODEL RUN5,000full-season simulations

208regular-season games left

64actual results locked

Updated Oct 8 · 7:30 PM ET

FSN SUPER BOWL FAVORITE

San Francisco 49ers

27.7%

98.8% to make the playoffs · 46.8% to win its conference

Explore San Francisco 49ers →

MOST LIKELY SUPER BOWL MATCHUP

Jacksonville Jaguarsvs.San Francisco 49ers

21.9% of simulations

FORECAST STATE

Week 5

The current season model is forecasting from the information available around NFL Week 5.

WHAT CHANGED

Biggest playoff-odds movers since the prior checkpoint

Risers

New England Patriots▲ 31.7 pts Atlanta Falcons▲ 30.6 pts Carolina Panthers▲ 22.3 pts Los Angeles Rams▲ 14.2 pts

Fallers

New Orleans Saints▼ 40.5 pts Detroit Lions▼ 18.9 pts Cincinnati Bengals▼ 17.4 pts Philadelphia Eagles▼ 16.5 pts

IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED TODAY

Current standings-based playoff field

This is the snapshot from games already completed. It is deliberately separate from FSN’s projected field below.

AFC today

1
Kansas City Chiefs4-0
BYE
2
Jacksonville Jaguars3-1
DIV
3
Buffalo Bills3-1
DIV
4
Cleveland Browns3-1
DIV
5
Baltimore Ravens3-1
WC
6
Las Vegas Raiders3-1
WC
7
New England Patriots2-2
WC

NFC today

1
San Francisco 49ers4-0
BYE
2
Minnesota Vikings4-0
DIV
3
New York Giants3-1
DIV
4
Carolina Panthers2-2
DIV
5
Chicago Bears3-1
WC
6
Seattle Seahawks3-1
WC
7
Los Angeles Rams2-2
WC

FSN PROJECTED PLAYOFF FIELD

The most likely coherent playoff fields across the season simulation

Each conference list is a complete seven-team seeded bracket that occurred together in the Monte Carlo run—not seven independently selected seed favorites.

Projected AFC

1
Kansas City Chiefs96.7% playoff · 27.1% seed 1
BYE
2
Jacksonville Jaguars98.5% playoff · 27.4% seed 2
DIV
3
Buffalo Bills94.6% playoff · 20.0% seed 3
DIV
4
Baltimore Ravens81.7% playoff · 19.3% seed 4
DIV
5
New England Patriots62.8% playoff · 16.9% seed 5
WC
6
Cincinnati Bengals50.0% playoff · 10.9% seed 6
WC
7
Cleveland Browns42.1% playoff · 10.1% seed 7
WC

Projected NFC

1
San Francisco 49ers98.8% playoff · 60.4% seed 1
BYE
2
Minnesota Vikings76.9% playoff · 24.0% seed 2
DIV
3
Dallas Cowboys57.7% playoff · 22.3% seed 3
DIV
4
Atlanta Falcons39.5% playoff · 14.0% seed 4
DIV
5
Seattle Seahawks85.9% playoff · 35.7% seed 5
WC
6
Chicago Bears77.6% playoff · 16.5% seed 6
WC
7
Los Angeles Rams59.4% playoff · 19.6% seed 7
WC

ROAD TO THE SUPER BOWL

Most common championship matchups

Jacksonville JaguarsAFC

vs.

San Francisco 49ersNFC

21.9%

Kansas City ChiefsAFC

vs.

San Francisco 49ersNFC

10.0%

Jacksonville JaguarsAFC

vs.

Seattle SeahawksNFC

9.6%

Buffalo BillsAFC

vs.

San Francisco 49ersNFC

7.6%

Kansas City ChiefsAFC

vs.

Seattle SeahawksNFC

4.8%

Jacksonville JaguarsAFC

vs.

Chicago BearsNFC

4.3%

ALL 32 TEAMS

NFL playoff scenarios, seeds & odds

Projected wins are the average across every simulated regular season. Seed odds show how often each team earns the conference’s No. 1 seed.

Team	Record	Proj. wins	Playoffs	Division	#1 seed	Conference	Super Bowl	Δ Playoffs
SFSan Francisco 49ers	4-0	13.5	98.8%	74.5%	60.4%	46.8%	27.7%	▲ 1.3
JAXJacksonville Jaguars	3-1	12.7	98.5%	91.9%	38.6%	45.8%	26.4%	▲ 4.2
SEASeattle Seahawks	3-1	11.4	85.9%	22.1%	15.8%	21.7%	11.9%	▲ 0.5
KCKansas City Chiefs	4-0	12.0	96.7%	85.2%	27.1%	21.7%	9.4%	▲ 4.4
BUFBuffalo Bills	3-1	11.8	94.6%	78.2%	20.6%	16.3%	7.2%	▼ 3.6
CHIChicago Bears	3-1	10.8	77.6%	34.5%	6.9%	10.2%	4.7%	▲ 5.2
LARLos Angeles Rams	2-2	9.8	59.4%	3.4%	2.0%	6.6%	3.2%	▲ 14.2
BALBaltimore Ravens	3-1	10.8	81.7%	56.5%	8.0%	8.0%	2.9%	▼ 0.9
MINMinnesota Vikings	4-0	10.8	76.9%	39.6%	8.0%	5.7%	1.9%	▼ 6.3
DETDetroit Lions	2-2	10.2	63.6%	24.7%	3.5%	3.5%	1.3%	▼ 18.9
NENew England Patriots	2-2	9.4	62.8%	20.8%	1.4%	3.0%	0.9%	▲ 31.7
CARCarolina Panthers	2-2	9.1	64.7%	59.5%	1.2%	2.1%	0.6%	▲ 22.3
CINCincinnati Bengals	2-2	9.3	50.0%	20.1%	0.9%	1.7%	0.4%	▼ 17.4
DALDallas Cowboys	2-2	9.2	57.7%	52.1%	1.0%	1.7%	0.3%	▲ 13.8
DENDenver Broncos	2-2	9.0	49.5%	8.9%	1.3%	1.1%	0.3%	▼ 9.9
INDIndianapolis Colts	2-2	8.7	37.0%	6.2%	0.5%	0.6%	0.2%	▲ 6.4
LVLas Vegas Raiders	3-1	8.7	40.1%	5.9%	0.7%	0.6%	0.2%	▼ 7.2
ATLAtlanta Falcons	2-2	8.3	39.5%	30.8%	0.7%	1.0%	0.2%	▲ 30.6
HOUHouston Texans	0-4	7.5	16.2%	1.8%	0.1%	0.5%	0.2%	▼ 4.4
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles	2-2	7.5	23.0%	20.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	▼ 16.5
PITPittsburgh Steelers	2-2	7.9	23.4%	6.5%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%	▼ 12.0
CLECleveland Browns	3-1	8.9	42.1%	16.9%	0.6%	0.4%	0.0%	▲ 13.8
NYGNew York Giants	3-1	8.0	29.2%	24.9%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	▲ 9.7
NONew Orleans Saints	1-3	6.6	10.4%	8.5%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	▼ 40.5
NYJNew York Jets	1-3	6.2	6.6%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ 4.3
GBGreen Bay Packers	2-2	7.0	7.7%	1.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	▲ 2.5
WASWashington Commanders	1-3	5.7	3.7%	2.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ 8.9
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers	0-4	4.5	1.5%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ 4.5
ARIArizona Cardinals	1-3	5.3	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ 4.5
LACLos Angeles Chargers	0-4	4.2	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ 0.5
MIAMiami Dolphins	0-4	3.6	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ 0.1
TENTennessee Titans	0-4	3.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	▼ 0.2

FORECAST HISTORY

Watch the model change its mind

Each checkpoint preserves the probability distribution from that point in the season instead of rewriting history after later games.

Week 1Archived → Week 2Archived → Week 3Archived → Week 4Archived → Week 5Archived → Week 6Current checkpoint →

MODEL METHODOLOGY

Why this is more than a standings calculator

Every trial starts with the games that have actually happened, then samples each remaining regular-season matchup from the same FSN Smart Simulator system used on individual game pages. The resulting simulated season has its own head-to-head results, division record, conference record, common opponents, scoring and opponent records. FSN resolves those standings before it builds the playoff bracket.

The postseason uses seven teams per conference, gives only the No. 1 seed a first-round bye, and reseeds the Divisional Round so the top seed hosts the lowest remaining seed. Completed postseason games are treated as facts; only unplayed playoff games remain probabilistic.

Early-season calibration: the current season-strength evidence scale is 82%. Before enough current-season games exist, FSN deliberately shrinks long-range team-strength edges toward league average; that restraint fades as the season supplies real evidence.

A probability is not a promise. A team at 20% to win the Super Bowl is an enormous favorite relative to the field—and still loses four out of five simulated seasons.

Inputs that can move the forecast

Remaining regular-season games use the FSN Smart Simulator matchup inputs available at forecast time, with a season-level uncertainty calibration that is strongest before Week 1 and fades as current-season evidence accumulates.
Distant future games receive a small additional uncertainty discount, and postseason power is shrunk toward league average early in the season so prior-year ratings, EPA and QB context are not treated as independent certainties.
When the nearest upcoming slate has real nflverse spread lines, FSN uses those lines only as a capped early-season team-strength anchor; that market influence fades to zero as current-season games accumulate.
Division and wild-card qualification use head-to-head, division/conference/common-game records, strength of victory, strength of schedule, scoring rankings and net points before a seeded random fallback for vanishingly rare unresolved ties.
The postseason uses the seven-team-per-conference format, No. 1 byes and Divisional Round reseeding.
Team pages can show each club’s most common simulated Super Bowl opponent; that rate is conditional on the club reaching the Super Bowl, not a standalone championship probability.
Starting with checkpoints generated by FSN Data 0.9.3, team rows also preserve explanatory model signals so later checkpoints can show the largest input changes behind week-over-week odds movement. Those model-point changes are directional context, not an additive attribution of playoff-probability percentage points.
FSN-ROOT-1.0 derives weekly rooting interests from the same season trials by comparing downstream outcomes conditional on each other game being won by the home team versus the away team; it does not run a separate visitor-triggered simulation.
Completed playoff games are locked as actual results; only unplayed postseason games are simulated. During the postseason, current QB and weighted non-QB injuries are included in team power, while regular-season long-range forecasts do not assume today’s injury report persists into January.

Current injuries affect near-term matchup forecasts. FSN does not assume today’s injury designation will automatically persist all the way to January.

PLAYOFF PREDICTOR FAQ

How to read FSN’s season simulation

Does this update after every NFL week?

Yes. The live forecast rebuilds from newly completed games and refreshed Smart Simulator inputs. Before the next checkpoint begins, FSN saves a snapshot so that week’s forecast can be compared with what happened later.

What is the difference between “if the playoffs started today” and the projected playoff field?

The first uses only games already completed. The projected field simulates the rest of the regular season thousands of times and shows the teams and seeds that appear most often.

Does FSN simulate NFL tiebreakers?

Yes. The seeding layer uses head-to-head, division and conference records, common games, strength of victory, strength of schedule, scoring-rank and net-point layers before a seeded fallback for the extraordinarily rare case that simulated teams remain indistinguishable.

Can a low-probability team still win the simulated Super Bowl?

Absolutely. The model samples each matchup rather than automatically advancing favorites, so upset paths compound naturally through the season and playoffs.

KEEP SIMULATING

NFL Game SimulatorRun individual matchups → Confidence Pool Picks & OptimizerRank weekly winners → NFL Scores & Game CenterFollow actual results → Playoff Control CenterPaths, tiebreakers & game leverage → NFL Rooting GuideSee which results help your team →