Jacksonville Jaguars
17.2%91.3% to make the playoffs · 29.3% to win its conference
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2026 NFL · FSN-SEASON-SIM-1.1
NFL Week 2 Playoff Predictions
This is FSN’s saved Week 2 forecast: the playoff field, seed probabilities, conference-title chances and Super Bowl odds exactly as the model saw them at that checkpoint.
MODEL RUN5,000full-season simulations
256regular-season games left
16actual results locked
Jacksonville Jaguarsvs.Seattle Seahawks
7.8% of simulations
Week 2
The current season model is forecasting from the information available around NFL Week 2.
WHAT CHANGED
Biggest playoff-odds movers since the prior checkpoint
IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED TODAY
Current standings-based playoff field
This is the snapshot from games already completed. It is deliberately separate from FSN’s projected field below.
AFC today
- 1Jacksonville Jaguars1-0BYE
- 2Kansas City Chiefs1-0DIV
- 3Baltimore Ravens1-0DIV
- 4New York Jets1-0DIV
- 5Las Vegas Raiders1-0WC
- 6Buffalo Bills1-0WC
- 7Cincinnati Bengals1-0WC
NFC today
- 1San Francisco 49ers1-0BYE
- 2Minnesota Vikings1-0DIV
- 3New York Giants1-0DIV
- 4New Orleans Saints0-1DIV
- 5Chicago Bears1-0WC
- 6Detroit Lions1-0WC
- 7Philadelphia Eagles1-0WC
FSN PROJECTED PLAYOFF FIELD
The most likely coherent playoff fields across the season simulation
Each conference list is a complete seven-team seeded bracket that occurred together in the Monte Carlo run—not seven independently selected seed favorites.
Projected AFC
- 1Buffalo Bills93.8% playoff · 28.7% seed 1BYE
- 2Baltimore Ravens90.1% playoff · 19.3% seed 2DIV
- 3Jacksonville Jaguars91.3% playoff · 16.0% seed 3DIV
- 4Kansas City Chiefs81.6% playoff · 28.6% seed 4DIV
- 5Pittsburgh Steelers48.9% playoff · 10.9% seed 5WC
- 6New England Patriots56.8% playoff · 13.1% seed 6WC
- 7Houston Texans64.7% playoff · 10.9% seed 7WC
Projected NFC
- 1Seattle Seahawks82.1% playoff · 24.5% seed 1BYE
- 2Chicago Bears83.3% playoff · 20.3% seed 2DIV
- 3New York Giants57.8% playoff · 20.4% seed 3DIV
- 4Carolina Panthers33.4% playoff · 19.0% seed 4DIV
- 5Detroit Lions63.2% playoff · 13.4% seed 5WC
- 6San Francisco 49ers80.6% playoff · 13.0% seed 6WC
- 7Los Angeles Rams37.0% playoff · 10.3% seed 7WC
ROAD TO THE SUPER BOWL
Most common championship matchups
Jacksonville JaguarsAFC
vs.Seattle SeahawksNFC
7.8%Jacksonville JaguarsAFC
vs.San Francisco 49ersNFC
6.8%Buffalo BillsAFC
vs.Seattle SeahawksNFC
6.3%Baltimore RavensAFC
vs.Seattle SeahawksNFC
6.1%Jacksonville JaguarsAFC
vs.Chicago BearsNFC
5.3%Buffalo BillsAFC
vs.San Francisco 49ersNFC
4.6%ALL 32 TEAMS
NFL playoff scenarios, seeds & odds
Projected wins are the average across every simulated regular season. Seed odds show how often each team earns the conference’s No. 1 seed.
| Team | Record | Proj. wins | Playoffs | Division | #1 seed | Conference | Super Bowl | Δ Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAXJacksonville Jaguars | 1-0 | 11.4 | 91.3% | 69.0% | 24.2% | 29.3% | 17.2% | ▲ 21.7 |
| SEASeattle Seahawks | 1-0 | 11.2 | 82.1% | 45.0% | 24.5% | 28.0% | 15.9% | ▲ 5.9 |
| SFSan Francisco 49ers | 1-0 | 11.0 | 80.6% | 40.0% | 19.2% | 22.3% | 11.6% | ▲ 16.5 |
| BUFBuffalo Bills | 1-0 | 11.6 | 93.8% | 77.7% | 28.7% | 22.6% | 11.4% | ▲ 16.7 |
| BALBaltimore Ravens | 1-0 | 11.4 | 90.1% | 67.2% | 22.6% | 19.8% | 10.5% | ▲ 19.7 |
| CHIChicago Bears | 1-0 | 11.2 | 83.3% | 51.8% | 22.6% | 18.3% | 9.0% | ▲ 35.0 |
| KCKansas City Chiefs | 1-0 | 10.2 | 81.6% | 71.1% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 6.4% | ▲ 30.9 |
| DETDetroit Lions | 1-0 | 10.0 | 63.2% | 25.1% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 3.3% | ▼ 1.8 |
| HOUHouston Texans | 0-1 | 9.6 | 64.7% | 25.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 2.2% | ▲ 3.0 |
| MINMinnesota Vikings | 1-0 | 9.6 | 56.4% | 19.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 2.2% | ▲ 20.1 |
| PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | 1-0 | 9.2 | 54.2% | 40.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 1.9% | ▲ 4.4 |
| LARLos Angeles Rams | 0-1 | 8.8 | 37.0% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | ▼ 43.6 |
| NENew England Patriots | 0-1 | 9.0 | 56.8% | 17.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.5% | ▼ 21.8 |
| NYGNew York Giants | 1-0 | 9.4 | 57.8% | 45.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.4% | ▲ 37.2 |
| PITPittsburgh Steelers | 1-0 | 8.9 | 48.9% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | ▲ 5.5 |
| ARIArizona Cardinals | 1-0 | 8.5 | 30.1% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | ▲ 19.1 |
| CINCincinnati Bengals | 1-0 | 9.0 | 50.7% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | ▲ 8.2 |
| TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | 0-1 | 8.1 | 44.0% | 39.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | ▲ 8.8 |
| GBGreen Bay Packers | 0-1 | 7.4 | 16.3% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | ▼ 29.0 |
| DENDenver Broncos | 0-1 | 7.8 | 32.5% | 15.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | ▼ 18.9 |
| NONew Orleans Saints | 0-1 | 7.3 | 27.8% | 24.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | ▼ 4.7 |
| CARCarolina Panthers | 0-1 | 7.7 | 33.4% | 29.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | ▲ 4.0 |
| LACLos Angeles Chargers | 0-1 | 6.6 | 16.0% | 7.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | ▼ 31.2 |
| DALDallas Cowboys | 0-1 | 7.1 | 15.7% | 8.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | ▼ 25.6 |
| INDIndianapolis Colts | 0-1 | 7.7 | 25.8% | 5.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | ▼ 23.3 |
| NYJNew York Jets | 1-0 | 7.2 | 19.4% | 3.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | ▲ 11.1 |
| ATLAtlanta Falcons | 0-1 | 5.6 | 7.6% | 6.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | ▼ 31.9 |
| LVLas Vegas Raiders | 1-0 | 6.7 | 14.6% | 6.8% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | ▲ 4.1 |
| WASWashington Commanders | 0-1 | 6.6 | 10.6% | 5.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | ▼ 14.4 |
| CLECleveland Browns | 0-1 | 6.3 | 9.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ▼ 12.6 |
| MIAMiami Dolphins | 0-1 | 5.0 | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ▼ 5.9 |
| TENTennessee Titans | 0-1 | 4.8 | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ▼ 7.2 |
FORECAST HISTORY
Watch the model change its mind
Each checkpoint preserves the probability distribution from that point in the season instead of rewriting history after later games.
MODEL METHODOLOGY
Why this is more than a standings calculator
Every trial starts with the games that have actually happened, then samples each remaining regular-season matchup from the same FSN Smart Simulator system used on individual game pages. The resulting simulated season has its own head-to-head results, division record, conference record, common opponents, scoring and opponent records. FSN resolves those standings before it builds the playoff bracket.
The postseason uses seven teams per conference, gives only the No. 1 seed a first-round bye, and reseeds the Divisional Round so the top seed hosts the lowest remaining seed. Completed postseason games are treated as facts; only unplayed playoff games remain probabilistic.
Early-season calibration: the current season-strength evidence scale is 69%. Before enough current-season games exist, FSN deliberately shrinks long-range team-strength edges toward league average; that restraint fades as the season supplies real evidence.
A probability is not a promise. A team at 20% to win the Super Bowl is an enormous favorite relative to the field—and still loses four out of five simulated seasons.
How to read FSN’s season simulation
Does this update after every NFL week?
Yes. The live forecast rebuilds from newly completed games and refreshed Smart Simulator inputs. Before the next checkpoint begins, FSN saves a snapshot so that week’s forecast can be compared with what happened later.
What is the difference between “if the playoffs started today” and the projected playoff field?
The first uses only games already completed. The projected field simulates the rest of the regular season thousands of times and shows the teams and seeds that appear most often.
Does FSN simulate NFL tiebreakers?
Yes. The seeding layer uses head-to-head, division and conference records, common games, strength of victory, strength of schedule, scoring-rank and net-point layers before a seeded fallback for the extraordinarily rare case that simulated teams remain indistinguishable.
Can a low-probability team still win the simulated Super Bowl?
Absolutely. The model samples each matchup rather than automatically advancing favorites, so upset paths compound naturally through the season and playoffs.