San Francisco 49ers
23.9%97.5% to make the playoffs · 40.9% to win its conference
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2026 NFL · FSN-SEASON-SIM-1.2
NFL Week 4 Playoff Predictions
This is FSN’s saved Week 4 forecast: the playoff field, seed probabilities, conference-title chances and Super Bowl odds exactly as the model saw them at that checkpoint.
MODEL RUN5,000full-season simulations
224regular-season games left
48actual results locked
Jacksonville Jaguarsvs.San Francisco 49ers
13.6% of simulations
Week 4
The current season model is forecasting from the information available around NFL Week 4.
WHAT CHANGED
Biggest playoff-odds movers since the prior checkpoint
IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED TODAY
Current standings-based playoff field
This is the snapshot from games already completed. It is deliberately separate from FSN’s projected field below.
AFC today
- 1Kansas City Chiefs3-0BYE
- 2Buffalo Bills3-0DIV
- 3Jacksonville Jaguars2-1DIV
- 4Pittsburgh Steelers2-1DIV
- 5Las Vegas Raiders3-0WC
- 6Baltimore Ravens2-1WC
- 7Denver Broncos2-1WC
NFC today
- 1Minnesota Vikings3-0BYE
- 2San Francisco 49ers3-0DIV
- 3Philadelphia Eagles2-1DIV
- 4Carolina Panthers1-2DIV
- 5Detroit Lions2-1WC
- 6Chicago Bears2-1WC
- 7Seattle Seahawks2-1WC
FSN PROJECTED PLAYOFF FIELD
The most likely coherent playoff fields across the season simulation
Each conference list is a complete seven-team seeded bracket that occurred together in the Monte Carlo run—not seven independently selected seed favorites.
Projected AFC
- 1Buffalo Bills98.2% playoff · 45.7% seed 1BYE
- 2Kansas City Chiefs92.2% playoff · 19.7% seed 2DIV
- 3Baltimore Ravens82.7% playoff · 15.1% seed 3DIV
- 4Jacksonville Jaguars94.3% playoff · 21.1% seed 4DIV
- 5Denver Broncos59.4% playoff · 16.7% seed 5WC
- 6Pittsburgh Steelers35.4% playoff · 9.0% seed 6WC
- 7Cincinnati Bengals67.4% playoff · 11.3% seed 7WC
Projected NFC
- 1San Francisco 49ers97.5% playoff · 51.0% seed 1BYE
- 2Minnesota Vikings83.2% playoff · 21.6% seed 2DIV
- 3Dallas Cowboys43.8% playoff · 19.4% seed 3DIV
- 4New Orleans Saints50.9% playoff · 24.3% seed 4DIV
- 5Seattle Seahawks85.4% playoff · 30.2% seed 5WC
- 6Chicago Bears72.3% playoff · 18.1% seed 6WC
- 7Detroit Lions82.5% playoff · 13.8% seed 7WC
ROAD TO THE SUPER BOWL
Most common championship matchups
Jacksonville JaguarsAFC
vs.San Francisco 49ersNFC
13.6%Buffalo BillsAFC
vs.San Francisco 49ersNFC
11.9%Jacksonville JaguarsAFC
vs.Seattle SeahawksNFC
8.5%Kansas City ChiefsAFC
vs.San Francisco 49ersNFC
7.3%Buffalo BillsAFC
vs.Seattle SeahawksNFC
6.8%Kansas City ChiefsAFC
vs.Seattle SeahawksNFC
4.4%ALL 32 TEAMS
NFL playoff scenarios, seeds & odds
Projected wins are the average across every simulated regular season. Seed odds show how often each team earns the conference’s No. 1 seed.
| Team | Record | Proj. wins | Playoffs | Division | #1 seed | Conference | Super Bowl | Δ Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFSan Francisco 49ers | 3-0 | 13.0 | 97.5% | 71.5% | 51.0% | 40.9% | 23.9% | ▲ 3.2 |
| JAXJacksonville Jaguars | 2-1 | 11.8 | 94.3% | 85.5% | 18.2% | 34.1% | 20.0% | ▲ 9.6 |
| SEASeattle Seahawks | 2-1 | 11.2 | 85.4% | 25.1% | 13.4% | 24.8% | 14.3% | ▼ 8.2 |
| BUFBuffalo Bills | 3-0 | 12.8 | 98.2% | 94.1% | 45.7% | 28.0% | 13.7% | ▲ 0.6 |
| KCKansas City Chiefs | 3-0 | 11.5 | 92.2% | 70.6% | 18.8% | 18.5% | 8.8% | ▲ 1.0 |
| MINMinnesota Vikings | 3-0 | 11.0 | 83.2% | 38.5% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 3.6% | ▲ 9.4 |
| BALBaltimore Ravens | 2-1 | 10.8 | 82.7% | 51.7% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 3.5% | ▲ 7.8 |
| CHIChicago Bears | 2-1 | 10.4 | 72.3% | 23.1% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 3.4% | ▲ 27.1 |
| DETDetroit Lions | 2-1 | 11.2 | 82.5% | 37.9% | 12.2% | 7.3% | 2.3% | ▲ 17.4 |
| LARLos Angeles Rams | 1-2 | 9.1 | 45.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 4.1% | 1.7% | ▼ 10.1 |
| CINCincinnati Bengals | 2-1 | 10.1 | 67.4% | 29.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 1.5% | ▼ 9.6 |
| DENDenver Broncos | 2-1 | 9.4 | 59.4% | 17.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 0.7% | ▲ 10.5 |
| DALDallas Cowboys | 1-2 | 8.4 | 43.8% | 38.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | ▲ 8.0 |
| CARCarolina Panthers | 1-2 | 7.9 | 42.3% | 39.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | ▼ 8.7 |
| PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | 2-1 | 8.2 | 39.5% | 35.7% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | ▼ 27.5 |
| LVLas Vegas Raiders | 3-0 | 8.9 | 47.2% | 12.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | ▲ 20.8 |
| NENew England Patriots | 1-2 | 8.0 | 31.1% | 4.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | ▼ 40.1 |
| INDIndianapolis Colts | 1-2 | 8.3 | 30.6% | 8.8% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | ▲ 6.7 |
| NONew Orleans Saints | 1-2 | 8.3 | 50.9% | 48.0% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | ▼ 3.8 |
| PITPittsburgh Steelers | 2-1 | 8.5 | 35.4% | 11.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | ▲ 16.9 |
| CLECleveland Browns | 2-1 | 8.3 | 28.2% | 7.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | ▲ 1.8 |
| HOUHouston Texans | 0-3 | 7.8 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | ▼ 19.7 |
| NYJNew York Jets | 1-2 | 6.7 | 11.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ▼ 2.0 |
| NYGNew York Giants | 2-1 | 7.2 | 19.5% | 16.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | ▲ 0.3 |
| TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | 0-3 | 5.4 | 5.9% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | ▼ 9.4 |
| WASWashington Commanders | 1-2 | 6.8 | 12.6% | 9.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | ▲ 8.1 |
| ATLAtlanta Falcons | 1-2 | 6.0 | 8.9% | 7.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | ▲ 7.9 |
| GBGreen Bay Packers | 1-2 | 6.4 | 5.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ▼ 13.2 |
| ARIArizona Cardinals | 1-2 | 6.5 | 5.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ▼ 0.6 |
| LACLos Angeles Chargers | 0-3 | 4.7 | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ▼ 0.6 |
| MIAMiami Dolphins | 0-3 | 3.9 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ▼ 1.3 |
| TENTennessee Titans | 0-3 | 3.6 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ▼ 2.3 |
FORECAST HISTORY
Watch the model change its mind
Each checkpoint preserves the probability distribution from that point in the season instead of rewriting history after later games.
MODEL METHODOLOGY
Why this is more than a standings calculator
Every trial starts with the games that have actually happened, then samples each remaining regular-season matchup from the same FSN Smart Simulator system used on individual game pages. The resulting simulated season has its own head-to-head results, division record, conference record, common opponents, scoring and opponent records. FSN resolves those standings before it builds the playoff bracket.
The postseason uses seven teams per conference, gives only the No. 1 seed a first-round bye, and reseeds the Divisional Round so the top seed hosts the lowest remaining seed. Completed postseason games are treated as facts; only unplayed playoff games remain probabilistic.
Early-season calibration: the current season-strength evidence scale is 78%. Before enough current-season games exist, FSN deliberately shrinks long-range team-strength edges toward league average; that restraint fades as the season supplies real evidence.
A probability is not a promise. A team at 20% to win the Super Bowl is an enormous favorite relative to the field—and still loses four out of five simulated seasons.
How to read FSN’s season simulation
Does this update after every NFL week?
Yes. The live forecast rebuilds from newly completed games and refreshed Smart Simulator inputs. Before the next checkpoint begins, FSN saves a snapshot so that week’s forecast can be compared with what happened later.
What is the difference between “if the playoffs started today” and the projected playoff field?
The first uses only games already completed. The projected field simulates the rest of the regular season thousands of times and shows the teams and seeds that appear most often.
Does FSN simulate NFL tiebreakers?
Yes. The seeding layer uses head-to-head, division and conference records, common games, strength of victory, strength of schedule, scoring-rank and net-point layers before a seeded fallback for the extraordinarily rare case that simulated teams remain indistinguishable.
Can a low-probability team still win the simulated Super Bowl?
Absolutely. The model samples each matchup rather than automatically advancing favorites, so upset paths compound naturally through the season and playoffs.