Los Angeles Rams
15.3%80.7% to make the playoffs · 25.9% to win its conference
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2026 NFL · FSN-SEASON-SIM-1.1
NFL Week 1 Playoff Predictions
This is FSN’s saved Week 1 forecast: the playoff field, seed probabilities, conference-title chances and Super Bowl odds exactly as the model saw them at that checkpoint.
MODEL RUN5,000full-season simulations
272regular-season games left
0actual results locked
Buffalo Billsvs.Los Angeles Rams
4.5% of simulations
Week 1
The current season model is forecasting from the information available around NFL Week 1.
FSN PROJECTED PLAYOFF FIELD
The most likely coherent playoff fields across the season simulation
Each conference list is a complete seven-team seeded bracket that occurred together in the Monte Carlo run—not seven independently selected seed favorites.
Projected AFC
- 1New England Patriots78.6% playoff · 17.1% seed 1BYE
- 2Indianapolis Colts49.1% playoff · 6.2% seed 2DIV
- 3Los Angeles Chargers47.2% playoff · 7.5% seed 3DIV
- 4Pittsburgh Steelers43.5% playoff · 5.9% seed 4DIV
- 5Jacksonville Jaguars69.5% playoff · 10.2% seed 5WC
- 6Buffalo Bills77.1% playoff · 10.0% seed 6WC
- 7Houston Texans61.6% playoff · 9.2% seed 7WC
Projected NFC
- 1Seattle Seahawks76.2% playoff · 20.9% seed 1BYE
- 2Green Bay Packers45.3% playoff · 8.3% seed 2DIV
- 3New Orleans Saints32.6% playoff · 7.3% seed 3DIV
- 4Philadelphia Eagles49.7% playoff · 13.2% seed 4DIV
- 5Los Angeles Rams80.7% playoff · 19.2% seed 5WC
- 6Detroit Lions65.0% playoff · 8.2% seed 6WC
- 7Chicago Bears48.4% playoff · 10.0% seed 7WC
ROAD TO THE SUPER BOWL
Most common championship matchups
Buffalo BillsAFC
vs.Los Angeles RamsNFC
4.5%Jacksonville JaguarsAFC
vs.Los Angeles RamsNFC
4.4%New England PatriotsAFC
vs.Seattle SeahawksNFC
4.4%New England PatriotsAFC
vs.Los Angeles RamsNFC
4.3%Jacksonville JaguarsAFC
vs.Seattle SeahawksNFC
3.8%Buffalo BillsAFC
vs.Seattle SeahawksNFC
3.7%ALL 32 TEAMS
NFL playoff scenarios, seeds & odds
Projected wins are the average across every simulated regular season. Seed odds show how often each team earns the conference’s No. 1 seed.
| Team | Record | Proj. wins | Playoffs | Division | #1 seed | Conference | Super Bowl | Δ Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LARLos Angeles Rams | 0-0 | 10.9 | 80.7% | 41.8% | 25.8% | 25.9% | 15.3% | — |
| SEASeattle Seahawks | 0-0 | 10.6 | 76.2% | 34.0% | 20.9% | 24.9% | 14.9% | — |
| NENew England Patriots | 0-0 | 10.4 | 78.6% | 49.4% | 17.1% | 17.5% | 9.3% | — |
| JAXJacksonville Jaguars | 0-0 | 10.0 | 69.5% | 42.7% | 13.7% | 16.2% | 9.0% | — |
| BUFBuffalo Bills | 0-0 | 10.2 | 77.1% | 46.1% | 16.2% | 16.1% | 8.6% | — |
| BALBaltimore Ravens | 0-0 | 10.0 | 70.4% | 49.5% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 5.3% | — |
| SFSan Francisco 49ers | 0-0 | 9.9 | 64.1% | 22.6% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 5.2% | — |
| HOUHouston Texans | 0-0 | 9.5 | 61.6% | 32.8% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 5.2% | — |
| DETDetroit Lions | 0-0 | 9.9 | 65.0% | 40.1% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 3.9% | — |
| DENDenver Broncos | 0-0 | 8.9 | 51.3% | 33.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 2.9% | — |
| INDIndianapolis Colts | 0-0 | 8.9 | 49.1% | 21.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 2.4% | — |
| KCKansas City Chiefs | 0-0 | 8.8 | 50.7% | 33.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 2.4% | — |
| PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | 0-0 | 8.8 | 49.7% | 38.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 2.3% | — |
| LACLos Angeles Chargers | 0-0 | 8.6 | 47.2% | 28.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.0% | — |
| GBGreen Bay Packers | 0-0 | 8.9 | 45.3% | 21.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 1.7% | — |
| CHIChicago Bears | 0-0 | 9.0 | 48.4% | 23.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 1.7% | — |
| PITPittsburgh Steelers | 0-0 | 8.6 | 43.5% | 21.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.5% | — |
| ATLAtlanta Falcons | 0-0 | 8.2 | 39.5% | 29.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | — |
| DALDallas Cowboys | 0-0 | 8.3 | 41.3% | 30.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | — |
| MINMinnesota Vikings | 0-0 | 8.4 | 36.3% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | — |
| CINCincinnati Bengals | 0-0 | 8.5 | 42.5% | 20.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | — |
| TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | 0-0 | 8.0 | 35.2% | 25.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | — |
| NONew Orleans Saints | 0-0 | 7.9 | 32.6% | 23.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | — |
| CARCarolina Panthers | 0-0 | 7.6 | 29.4% | 21.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | — |
| WASWashington Commanders | 0-0 | 7.4 | 25.0% | 16.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | — |
| NYGNew York Giants | 0-0 | 7.2 | 20.5% | 13.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | — |
| CLECleveland Browns | 0-0 | 7.4 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | — |
| ARIArizona Cardinals | 0-0 | 6.6 | 10.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — |
| MIAMiami Dolphins | 0-0 | 6.1 | 8.9% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — |
| LVLas Vegas Raiders | 0-0 | 6.2 | 10.5% | 5.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | — |
| TENTennessee Titans | 0-0 | 6.3 | 9.1% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | — |
| NYJNew York Jets | 0-0 | 6.1 | 8.3% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | — |
FORECAST HISTORY
Watch the model change its mind
Each checkpoint preserves the probability distribution from that point in the season instead of rewriting history after later games.
MODEL METHODOLOGY
Why this is more than a standings calculator
Every trial starts with the games that have actually happened, then samples each remaining regular-season matchup from the same FSN Smart Simulator system used on individual game pages. The resulting simulated season has its own head-to-head results, division record, conference record, common opponents, scoring and opponent records. FSN resolves those standings before it builds the playoff bracket.
The postseason uses seven teams per conference, gives only the No. 1 seed a first-round bye, and reseeds the Divisional Round so the top seed hosts the lowest remaining seed. Completed postseason games are treated as facts; only unplayed playoff games remain probabilistic.
Early-season calibration: the current season-strength evidence scale is 64%. Before enough current-season games exist, FSN deliberately shrinks long-range team-strength edges toward league average; that restraint fades as the season supplies real evidence.
A probability is not a promise. A team at 20% to win the Super Bowl is an enormous favorite relative to the field—and still loses four out of five simulated seasons.
How to read FSN’s season simulation
Does this update after every NFL week?
Yes. The live forecast rebuilds from newly completed games and refreshed Smart Simulator inputs. Before the next checkpoint begins, FSN saves a snapshot so that week’s forecast can be compared with what happened later.
What is the difference between “if the playoffs started today” and the projected playoff field?
The first uses only games already completed. The projected field simulates the rest of the regular season thousands of times and shows the teams and seeds that appear most often.
Does FSN simulate NFL tiebreakers?
Yes. The seeding layer uses head-to-head, division and conference records, common games, strength of victory, strength of schedule, scoring-rank and net-point layers before a seeded fallback for the extraordinarily rare case that simulated teams remain indistinguishable.
Can a low-probability team still win the simulated Super Bowl?
Absolutely. The model samples each matchup rather than automatically advancing favorites, so upset paths compound naturally through the season and playoffs.