FSN SMART SIM · 2026 WEEK 16

NFL Week 16 Predictions

Every 2026 NFL Week 16 matchup, projected with FSN’s Smart Game Simulator. Compare predicted winners, win probabilities and projected scores, then open any upcoming matchup to run 1,000, 10,000 or 50,000 simulations.

10,000 sims defaultReal player dataTransparent factorsPregame snapshots

MODEL FSN-SIM-1.0

Live forecasts update until kickoff; completed games keep their last pregame snapshot.

Data updated 28 minutes ago

NFL PREDICTIONS Week 16 Dec 24–Dec 28

2026 NFL WEEK 16

NFL Week 16 Predictions: Every Game

These are server-rendered FSN model forecasts, not sportsbook picks. Upcoming games continue to update as new results, player data and injury information become available. Once a game starts, its last pregame forecast is frozen for transparent historical tracking.

Thu, Dec 24 · 8:15 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles Prediction

HOUHouston Texans 24

PHIPhiladelphia Eagles 19

FSN PICK Houston Texans 67%

FSN gives the Houston Texans a 67% win probability against the Philadelphia Eagles, with a projected score of Houston Texans 24, Philadelphia Eagles 19. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Houston Texans.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Fri, Dec 25 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears Prediction

GBGreen Bay Packers 21

CHIChicago Bears 22

FSN PICK Chicago Bears 55%

FSN gives the Chicago Bears a 55% win probability against the Green Bay Packers, with a projected score of Green Bay Packers 21, Chicago Bears 22. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Chicago Bears.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Fri, Dec 25 · 4:30 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos Prediction

BUFBuffalo Bills 29

DENDenver Broncos 23

FSN PICK Buffalo Bills 72%

FSN gives the Buffalo Bills a 72% win probability against the Denver Broncos, with a projected score of Buffalo Bills 29, Denver Broncos 23. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Buffalo Bills.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Fri, Dec 25 · 8:15 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks Prediction

LARLos Angeles Rams 22

SEASeattle Seahawks 26

FSN PICK Seattle Seahawks 62%

FSN gives the Seattle Seahawks a 62% win probability against the Los Angeles Rams, with a projected score of Los Angeles Rams 22, Seattle Seahawks 26. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Seattle Seahawks.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons Prediction

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers 21

ATLAtlanta Falcons 25

FSN PICK Atlanta Falcons 65%

FSN gives the Atlanta Falcons a 65% win probability against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with a projected score of Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21, Atlanta Falcons 25. The largest current model driver is venue / home field, which leans toward Atlanta Falcons.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Prediction

CLECleveland Browns 18

BALBaltimore Ravens 29

FSN PICK Baltimore Ravens 83%

FSN gives the Baltimore Ravens a 83% win probability against the Cleveland Browns, with a projected score of Cleveland Browns 18, Baltimore Ravens 29. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Baltimore Ravens.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts Prediction

CINCincinnati Bengals 26

INDIndianapolis Colts 24

FSN PICK Cincinnati Bengals 55%

FSN gives the Cincinnati Bengals a 55% win probability against the Indianapolis Colts, with a projected score of Cincinnati Bengals 26, Indianapolis Colts 24. The largest current model driver is quarterback form / availability, which leans toward Cincinnati Bengals.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins Prediction

LACLos Angeles Chargers 22

MIAMiami Dolphins 20

FSN PICK Los Angeles Chargers 56%

FSN gives the Los Angeles Chargers a 56% win probability against the Miami Dolphins, with a projected score of Los Angeles Chargers 22, Miami Dolphins 20. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Los Angeles Chargers.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings Prediction

WASWashington Commanders 17

MINMinnesota Vikings 27

FSN PICK Minnesota Vikings 83%

FSN gives the Minnesota Vikings a 83% win probability against the Washington Commanders, with a projected score of Washington Commanders 17, Minnesota Vikings 27. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Minnesota Vikings.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints Prediction

ARIArizona Cardinals 25

NONew Orleans Saints 29

FSN PICK New Orleans Saints 66%

FSN gives the New Orleans Saints a 66% win probability against the Arizona Cardinals, with a projected score of Arizona Cardinals 25, New Orleans Saints 29. The largest current model driver is venue / home field, which leans toward New Orleans Saints.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

New England Patriots at New York Jets Prediction

NENew England Patriots 25

NYJNew York Jets 15

FSN PICK New England Patriots 83%

FSN gives the New England Patriots a 83% win probability against the New York Jets, with a projected score of New England Patriots 25, New York Jets 15. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward New England Patriots.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction

CARCarolina Panthers 25

PITPittsburgh Steelers 26

FSN PICK Pittsburgh Steelers 53%

FSN gives the Pittsburgh Steelers a 53% win probability against the Carolina Panthers, with a projected score of Carolina Panthers 25, Pittsburgh Steelers 26. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Pittsburgh Steelers.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 27 · 4:05 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

TENTennessee Titans 17

LVLas Vegas Raiders 26

FSN PICK Las Vegas Raiders 81%

FSN gives the Las Vegas Raiders a 81% win probability against the Tennessee Titans, with a projected score of Tennessee Titans 17, Las Vegas Raiders 26. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Las Vegas Raiders.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 27 · 4:25 PM ET LIVE MODEL

San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

SFSan Francisco 49ers 26

KCKansas City Chiefs 23

FSN PICK San Francisco 49ers 62%

FSN gives the San Francisco 49ers a 62% win probability against the Kansas City Chiefs, with a projected score of San Francisco 49ers 26, Kansas City Chiefs 23. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward San Francisco 49ers.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 27 · 8:20 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys Prediction

JAXJacksonville Jaguars 28

DALDallas Cowboys 19

FSN PICK Jacksonville Jaguars 80%

FSN gives the Jacksonville Jaguars a 80% win probability against the Dallas Cowboys, with a projected score of Jacksonville Jaguars 28, Dallas Cowboys 19. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Jacksonville Jaguars.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Mon, Dec 28 · 8:15 PM ET LIVE MODEL

New York Giants at Detroit Lions Prediction

NYGNew York Giants 20

DETDetroit Lions 32

FSN PICK Detroit Lions 87%

FSN gives the Detroit Lions a 87% win probability against the New York Giants, with a projected score of New York Giants 20, Detroit Lions 32. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Detroit Lions.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Carolina Panthers CAR 25

47% win

PROJECTED 10,000 simulations Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET

Acrisure Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers PIT 26

53% win

SIMULATIONS

DATA COVERAGE Excellent

SIM RESULTS

What the simulations produced

Average score—

Median margin—

Overtime / tie path—

Simulation spread—

Most common final scores

WHY THE MODEL LEANS

Key matchup drivers

PLAYER LAYER

Quarterbacks and injuries

GAME CONTEXT

Environment and model inputs

HOW IT WORKS

A prediction tool that shows its work

FSN begins with its opponent-adjusted team rating, then layers in smaller matchup adjustments from recent results, weekly EPA/CPOE efficiency, quarterback efficiency, current injury reports, pass rush and interceptions, kicking, rest, venue and travel. Market spread/total data is used only as a capped reality check when it exists. The resulting expected margin and total become the center of a score distribution that the browser samples thousands of times.

The simulator is probabilistic, not a claim that a game will finish at one exact score. A 64% favorite still loses roughly one out of three comparable simulations. Football remains delightfully rude to certainty.

NFL SIMULATOR FAQ

How FSN weekly predictions update

Do NFL Week predictions recalculate after games are played?

Yes. Future matchups are rebuilt from the latest available team ratings, current-season results, weekly player and team efficiency data, injuries and matchup context. A Week 2 forecast can use Week 1 data; a Week 5 forecast can use Weeks 1–4.

Does FSN change an old prediction after kickoff?

No. Once kickoff passes, FSN uses the final stored pregame Smart Simulator snapshot for the historical weekly page. That prevents future information from leaking backward into old predictions.

Is the projected score supposed to be exact?

No. The projected score is the center of a probability distribution. The Monte Carlo simulation samples thousands of plausible scoring outcomes around that expectation to estimate win probability and score ranges.

Does FSN use betting lines to make the prediction?

Market spread and total data can be used as a deliberately capped sanity check when available, but they are not the primary model. FSN’s team, player, injury and matchup inputs drive the forecast.

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