FSN SMART SIM · 2026 WEEK 15

NFL Week 15 Predictions

Every 2026 NFL Week 15 matchup, projected with FSN’s Smart Game Simulator. Compare predicted winners, win probabilities and projected scores, then open any upcoming matchup to run 1,000, 10,000 or 50,000 simulations.

10,000 sims defaultReal player dataTransparent factorsPregame snapshots

MODEL FSN-SIM-1.0

Live forecasts update until kickoff; completed games keep their last pregame snapshot.

Data updated 30 minutes ago

NFL PREDICTIONS Week 15 Dec 17–Dec 21

2026 NFL WEEK 15

NFL Week 15 Predictions: Every Game

These are server-rendered FSN model forecasts, not sportsbook picks. Upcoming games continue to update as new results, player data and injury information become available. Once a game starts, its last pregame forecast is frozen for transparent historical tracking.

Thu, Dec 17 · 8:15 PM ET LIVE MODEL

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers Prediction

SFSan Francisco 49ers 31

LACLos Angeles Chargers 15

FSN PICK San Francisco 49ers 92%

FSN gives the San Francisco 49ers a 92% win probability against the Los Angeles Chargers, with a projected score of San Francisco 49ers 31, Los Angeles Chargers 15. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward San Francisco 49ers.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sat, Dec 19 · 5:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles Prediction

SEASeattle Seahawks 26

PHIPhiladelphia Eagles 19

FSN PICK Seattle Seahawks 75%

FSN gives the Seattle Seahawks a 75% win probability against the Philadelphia Eagles, with a projected score of Seattle Seahawks 26, Philadelphia Eagles 19. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Seattle Seahawks.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sat, Dec 19 · 8:20 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills Prediction

CHIChicago Bears 21

BUFBuffalo Bills 31

FSN PICK Buffalo Bills 82%

FSN gives the Buffalo Bills a 82% win probability against the Chicago Bears, with a projected score of Chicago Bears 21, Buffalo Bills 31. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Buffalo Bills.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers Prediction

CINCincinnati Bengals 26

CARCarolina Panthers 26

FSN PICK Carolina Panthers 51%

FSN gives the Carolina Panthers a 51% win probability against the Cincinnati Bengals, with a projected score of Cincinnati Bengals 26, Carolina Panthers 26. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Cincinnati Bengals.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers Prediction

MIAMiami Dolphins 15

GBGreen Bay Packers 27

FSN PICK Green Bay Packers 87%

FSN gives the Green Bay Packers a 87% win probability against the Miami Dolphins, with a projected score of Miami Dolphins 15, Green Bay Packers 27. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Green Bay Packers.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans Prediction

JAXJacksonville Jaguars 23

HOUHouston Texans 19

FSN PICK Jacksonville Jaguars 65%

FSN gives the Jacksonville Jaguars a 65% win probability against the Houston Texans, with a projected score of Jacksonville Jaguars 23, Houston Texans 19. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Jacksonville Jaguars.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Cleveland Browns at New York Giants Prediction

CLECleveland Browns 20

NYGNew York Giants 22

FSN PICK New York Giants 55%

FSN gives the New York Giants a 55% win probability against the Cleveland Browns, with a projected score of Cleveland Browns 20, New York Giants 22. The largest current model driver is venue / home field, which leans toward New York Giants.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction

BALBaltimore Ravens 26

PITPittsburgh Steelers 22

FSN PICK Baltimore Ravens 65%

FSN gives the Baltimore Ravens a 65% win probability against the Pittsburgh Steelers, with a projected score of Baltimore Ravens 26, Pittsburgh Steelers 22. The largest current model driver is quarterback form / availability, which leans toward Baltimore Ravens.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction

NONew Orleans Saints 22

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers 26

FSN PICK Tampa Bay Buccaneers 66%

FSN gives the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 66% win probability against the New Orleans Saints, with a projected score of New Orleans Saints 22, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans Prediction

INDIndianapolis Colts 26

TENTennessee Titans 17

FSN PICK Indianapolis Colts 81%

FSN gives the Indianapolis Colts a 81% win probability against the Tennessee Titans, with a projected score of Indianapolis Colts 26, Tennessee Titans 17. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Indianapolis Colts.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders Prediction

ATLAtlanta Falcons 27

WASWashington Commanders 23

FSN PICK Atlanta Falcons 64%

FSN gives the Atlanta Falcons a 64% win probability against the Washington Commanders, with a projected score of Atlanta Falcons 27, Washington Commanders 23. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Atlanta Falcons.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 20 · 4:05 PM ET LIVE MODEL

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals Prediction

NYJNew York Jets 23

ARIArizona Cardinals 22

FSN PICK New York Jets 54%

FSN gives the New York Jets a 54% win probability against the Arizona Cardinals, with a projected score of New York Jets 23, Arizona Cardinals 22. The largest current model driver is recent form, which leans toward New York Jets.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 20 · 4:25 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams Prediction

DALDallas Cowboys 23

LARLos Angeles Rams 29

FSN PICK Los Angeles Rams 72%

FSN gives the Los Angeles Rams a 72% win probability against the Dallas Cowboys, with a projected score of Dallas Cowboys 23, Los Angeles Rams 29. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Los Angeles Rams.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 20 · 4:25 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

DENDenver Broncos 25

LVLas Vegas Raiders 22

FSN PICK Denver Broncos 64%

FSN gives the Denver Broncos a 64% win probability against the Las Vegas Raiders, with a projected score of Denver Broncos 25, Las Vegas Raiders 22. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Denver Broncos.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Dec 20 · 8:20 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings Prediction

DETDetroit Lions 25

MINMinnesota Vikings 24

FSN PICK Detroit Lions 55%

FSN gives the Detroit Lions a 55% win probability against the Minnesota Vikings, with a projected score of Detroit Lions 25, Minnesota Vikings 24. The largest current model driver is epa offense / defense efficiency, which leans toward Detroit Lions.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Mon, Dec 21 · 8:15 PM ET LIVE MODEL

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

NENew England Patriots 22

KCKansas City Chiefs 22

FSN PICK Kansas City Chiefs 51%

FSN gives the Kansas City Chiefs a 51% win probability against the New England Patriots, with a projected score of New England Patriots 22, Kansas City Chiefs 22. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward New England Patriots.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Cleveland Browns CLE 20

45% win

PROJECTED 10,000 simulations Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET

MetLife Stadium

New York Giants NYG 22

55% win

SIMULATIONS

DATA COVERAGE Excellent

SIM RESULTS

What the simulations produced

Average score—

Median margin—

Overtime / tie path—

Simulation spread—

Most common final scores

WHY THE MODEL LEANS

Key matchup drivers

PLAYER LAYER

Quarterbacks and injuries

GAME CONTEXT

Environment and model inputs

HOW IT WORKS

A prediction tool that shows its work

FSN begins with its opponent-adjusted team rating, then layers in smaller matchup adjustments from recent results, weekly EPA/CPOE efficiency, quarterback efficiency, current injury reports, pass rush and interceptions, kicking, rest, venue and travel. Market spread/total data is used only as a capped reality check when it exists. The resulting expected margin and total become the center of a score distribution that the browser samples thousands of times.

The simulator is probabilistic, not a claim that a game will finish at one exact score. A 64% favorite still loses roughly one out of three comparable simulations. Football remains delightfully rude to certainty.

NFL SIMULATOR FAQ

How FSN weekly predictions update

Do NFL Week predictions recalculate after games are played?

Yes. Future matchups are rebuilt from the latest available team ratings, current-season results, weekly player and team efficiency data, injuries and matchup context. A Week 2 forecast can use Week 1 data; a Week 5 forecast can use Weeks 1–4.

Does FSN change an old prediction after kickoff?

No. Once kickoff passes, FSN uses the final stored pregame Smart Simulator snapshot for the historical weekly page. That prevents future information from leaking backward into old predictions.

Is the projected score supposed to be exact?

No. The projected score is the center of a probability distribution. The Monte Carlo simulation samples thousands of plausible scoring outcomes around that expectation to estimate win probability and score ranges.

Does FSN use betting lines to make the prediction?

Market spread and total data can be used as a deliberately capped sanity check when available, but they are not the primary model. FSN’s team, player, injury and matchup inputs drive the forecast.

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