FSN SMART SIM · 2026 WEEK 11

NFL Week 11 Predictions

Every 2026 NFL Week 11 matchup, projected with FSN’s Smart Game Simulator. Compare predicted winners, win probabilities and projected scores, then open any upcoming matchup to run 1,000, 10,000 or 50,000 simulations.

10,000 sims defaultReal player dataTransparent factorsPregame snapshots

MODEL FSN-SIM-1.0

Live forecasts update until kickoff; completed games keep their last pregame snapshot.

Data updated 29 minutes ago

NFL PREDICTIONS Week 11 Nov 19–Nov 23

2026 NFL WEEK 11

NFL Week 11 Predictions: Every Game

These are server-rendered FSN model forecasts, not sportsbook picks. Upcoming games continue to update as new results, player data and injury information become available. Once a game starts, its last pregame forecast is frozen for transparent historical tracking.

Thu, Nov 19 · 8:15 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans Prediction

INDIndianapolis Colts 21

HOUHouston Texans 27

FSN PICK Houston Texans 72%

FSN gives the Houston Texans a 72% win probability against the Indianapolis Colts, with a projected score of Indianapolis Colts 21, Houston Texans 27. The largest current model driver is quarterback form / availability, which leans toward Houston Texans.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Prediction

MIAMiami Dolphins 16

BUFBuffalo Bills 35

FSN PICK Buffalo Bills 95%

FSN gives the Buffalo Bills a 95% win probability against the Miami Dolphins, with a projected score of Miami Dolphins 16, Buffalo Bills 35. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Buffalo Bills.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers Prediction

BALBaltimore Ravens 29

CARCarolina Panthers 26

FSN PICK Baltimore Ravens 62%

FSN gives the Baltimore Ravens a 62% win probability against the Carolina Panthers, with a projected score of Baltimore Ravens 29, Carolina Panthers 26. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Baltimore Ravens.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears Prediction

NONew Orleans Saints 20

CHIChicago Bears 29

FSN PICK Chicago Bears 81%

FSN gives the Chicago Bears a 81% win probability against the New Orleans Saints, with a projected score of New Orleans Saints 20, Chicago Bears 29. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Chicago Bears.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys Prediction

TENTennessee Titans 15

DALDallas Cowboys 29

FSN PICK Dallas Cowboys 89%

FSN gives the Dallas Cowboys a 89% win probability against the Tennessee Titans, with a projected score of Tennessee Titans 15, Dallas Cowboys 29. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Dallas Cowboys.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions Prediction

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers 21

DETDetroit Lions 32

FSN PICK Detroit Lions 84%

FSN gives the Detroit Lions a 84% win probability against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with a projected score of Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21, Detroit Lions 32. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Detroit Lions.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

ARIArizona Cardinals 17

KCKansas City Chiefs 34

FSN PICK Kansas City Chiefs 93%

FSN gives the Kansas City Chiefs a 93% win probability against the Arizona Cardinals, with a projected score of Arizona Cardinals 17, Kansas City Chiefs 34. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Kansas City Chiefs.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants Prediction

JAXJacksonville Jaguars 26

NYGNew York Giants 15

FSN PICK Jacksonville Jaguars 86%

FSN gives the Jacksonville Jaguars a 86% win probability against the New York Giants, with a projected score of Jacksonville Jaguars 26, New York Giants 15. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Jacksonville Jaguars.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Nov 22 · 4:05 PM ET LIVE MODEL

New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers Prediction

NYJNew York Jets 20

LACLos Angeles Chargers 20

FSN PICK Los Angeles Chargers 52%

FSN gives the Los Angeles Chargers a 52% win probability against the New York Jets, with a projected score of New York Jets 20, Los Angeles Chargers 20. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Los Angeles Chargers.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Nov 22 · 4:25 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos Prediction

LVLas Vegas Raiders 20

DENDenver Broncos 27

FSN PICK Denver Broncos 76%

FSN gives the Denver Broncos a 76% win probability against the Las Vegas Raiders, with a projected score of Las Vegas Raiders 20, Denver Broncos 27. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Denver Broncos.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Nov 22 · 4:25 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles Prediction

PITPittsburgh Steelers 21

PHIPhiladelphia Eagles 21

FSN PICK Philadelphia Eagles 52%

FSN gives the Philadelphia Eagles a 52% win probability against the Pittsburgh Steelers, with a projected score of Pittsburgh Steelers 21, Philadelphia Eagles 21. The largest current model driver is venue / home field, which leans toward Philadelphia Eagles.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Nov 22 · 8:20 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers Prediction

MINMinnesota Vikings 17

SFSan Francisco 49ers 25

FSN PICK San Francisco 49ers 77%

FSN gives the San Francisco 49ers a 77% win probability against the Minnesota Vikings, with a projected score of Minnesota Vikings 17, San Francisco 49ers 25. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward San Francisco 49ers.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Mon, Nov 23 · 8:15 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Commanders Prediction

CINCincinnati Bengals 28

WASWashington Commanders 22

FSN PICK Cincinnati Bengals 72%

FSN gives the Cincinnati Bengals a 72% win probability against the Washington Commanders, with a projected score of Cincinnati Bengals 28, Washington Commanders 22. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Cincinnati Bengals.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

New Orleans Saints NO 20

19% win

PROJECTED 10,000 simulations Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET

Soldier Field

Chicago Bears CHI 29

81% win

SIMULATIONS

DATA COVERAGE Excellent

SIM RESULTS

What the simulations produced

Average score—

Median margin—

Overtime / tie path—

Simulation spread—

Most common final scores

WHY THE MODEL LEANS

Key matchup drivers

PLAYER LAYER

Quarterbacks and injuries

GAME CONTEXT

Environment and model inputs

HOW IT WORKS

A prediction tool that shows its work

FSN begins with its opponent-adjusted team rating, then layers in smaller matchup adjustments from recent results, weekly EPA/CPOE efficiency, quarterback efficiency, current injury reports, pass rush and interceptions, kicking, rest, venue and travel. Market spread/total data is used only as a capped reality check when it exists. The resulting expected margin and total become the center of a score distribution that the browser samples thousands of times.

The simulator is probabilistic, not a claim that a game will finish at one exact score. A 64% favorite still loses roughly one out of three comparable simulations. Football remains delightfully rude to certainty.

NFL SIMULATOR FAQ

How FSN weekly predictions update

Do NFL Week predictions recalculate after games are played?

Yes. Future matchups are rebuilt from the latest available team ratings, current-season results, weekly player and team efficiency data, injuries and matchup context. A Week 2 forecast can use Week 1 data; a Week 5 forecast can use Weeks 1–4.

Does FSN change an old prediction after kickoff?

No. Once kickoff passes, FSN uses the final stored pregame Smart Simulator snapshot for the historical weekly page. That prevents future information from leaking backward into old predictions.

Is the projected score supposed to be exact?

No. The projected score is the center of a probability distribution. The Monte Carlo simulation samples thousands of plausible scoring outcomes around that expectation to estimate win probability and score ranges.

Does FSN use betting lines to make the prediction?

Market spread and total data can be used as a deliberately capped sanity check when available, but they are not the primary model. FSN’s team, player, injury and matchup inputs drive the forecast.

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