How does the FSN NFL rooting guide work?

FSN measures how each other game in the current week changes a team’s simulated playoff, division, No. 1 seed and Super Bowl outcomes, then ranks the results that help most.

Why is my team’s own game not included?

Winning your own game is already the most direct way to improve your position. The rooting guide focuses on the other games fans should care about.

Do NFL rooting interests change every week?

Yes. Rooting interests rebuild with the FSN season forecast as standings, tiebreak paths and game probabilities change. Weekly snapshots preserve the pre-week picture.

2026 NFL · WEEK 4 · FSN-ROOT-1.1

NFL Week 4 Rooting Guide: Who Should Every Team Root For?

Pick your team for Week 4. FSN ranks every other unplayed game by how much each result helps your playoff path—using the same 5,000 full-season simulations behind the Playoff Predictor.

Playoff Control Center →Playoff Predictor →Game Simulator →

PICK YOUR TEAM

Who should you root for in Week 4?

Team

WEEK 4 ROOTING INTERESTS

Houston Texans fans: here’s who to root for

Your own game is excluded. Winning that one is still the best possible rooting strategy.

Current playoff odds20.6%7 meaningful outside-game impacts

Meaningful impact Sun 9:30 AM ET

INDIndianapolis Colts @ WASWashington Commanders

ROOT FOR Washington Commanders over Indianapolis Colts

+2.0 pts Playoff odds for Houston Texans in the preferred-result branch

See the simulation impact

If Washington Commanders wins21.8%Playoff odds

If Indianapolis Colts wins19.8%Playoff odds

Playoffs21.8%vs19.8%

Division6.3%vs5.3%

#1 seed0.2%vs0.2%

Reach SB0.6%vs0.3%

Win SB0.1%vs0.0%

Meaningful impact Sun 1:00 PM ET

JAXJacksonville Jaguars @ CINCincinnati Bengals

ROOT FOR Jacksonville Jaguars over Cincinnati Bengals

+2.3 pts Playoff odds for Houston Texans in the preferred-result branch

See the simulation impact

If Jacksonville Jaguars wins21.5%Playoff odds

If Cincinnati Bengals wins19.2%Playoff odds

Playoffs21.5%vs19.2%

Division5.0%vs6.7%

#1 seed0.2%vs0.1%

Reach SB0.5%vs0.3%

Win SB0.1%vs0.0%

Meaningful impact small model edge Sun 4:25 PM ET

DENDenver Broncos @ SFSan Francisco 49ers

ROOT FOR San Francisco 49ers over Denver Broncos

+1.4 pts Playoff odds for Houston Texans in the preferred-result branch

See the simulation impact

If San Francisco 49ers wins21.0%Playoff odds

If Denver Broncos wins19.6%Playoff odds

Playoffs21.0%vs19.6%

Division6.0%vs4.9%

#1 seed0.2%vs0.1%

Reach SB0.4%vs0.4%

Win SB0.1%vs0.0%

Meaningful impact small model edge Sun 1:00 PM ET

NYJNew York Jets @ CHIChicago Bears

ROOT FOR Chicago Bears over New York Jets

+1.6 pts Playoff odds for Houston Texans in the preferred-result branch

See the simulation impact

If Chicago Bears wins21.0%Playoff odds

If New York Jets wins19.4%Playoff odds

Playoffs21.0%vs19.4%

Division5.6%vs6.1%

#1 seed0.2%vs0.2%

Reach SB0.4%vs0.6%

Win SB0.0%vs0.1%

Meaningful impact small model edge Sun 4:25 PM ET

KCKansas City Chiefs @ LVLas Vegas Raiders

ROOT FOR Kansas City Chiefs over Las Vegas Raiders

+1.2 pts Playoff odds for Houston Texans in the preferred-result branch

See the simulation impact

If Kansas City Chiefs wins21.0%Playoff odds

If Las Vegas Raiders wins19.8%Playoff odds

Playoffs21.0%vs19.8%

Division5.6%vs5.8%

#1 seed0.2%vs0.2%

Reach SB0.5%vs0.3%

Win SB0.1%vs0.0%

Meaningful impact small model edge Sun 1:00 PM ET

TENTennessee Titans @ BALBaltimore Ravens

ROOT FOR Tennessee Titans over Baltimore Ravens

+1.5 pts Playoff odds for Houston Texans in the preferred-result branch

See the simulation impact

If Tennessee Titans wins21.8%Playoff odds

If Baltimore Ravens wins20.3%Playoff odds

Playoffs21.8%vs20.3%

Division4.6%vs5.9%

#1 seed0.0%vs0.2%

Reach SB0.5%vs0.4%

Win SB0.1%vs0.0%

Meaningful impact small model edge Sun 8:20 PM ET

DETDetroit Lions @ CARCarolina Panthers

ROOT FOR Detroit Lions over Carolina Panthers

+1.1 pts Playoff odds for Houston Texans in the preferred-result branch

See the simulation impact

If Detroit Lions wins21.0%Playoff odds

If Carolina Panthers wins19.9%Playoff odds

Playoffs21.0%vs19.9%

Division5.7%vs5.7%

#1 seed0.1%vs0.3%

Reach SB0.4%vs0.5%

Win SB0.0%vs0.1%

Small edge small model edge Sun 1:00 PM ET

NENew England Patriots @ BUFBuffalo Bills

ROOT FOR Buffalo Bills over New England Patriots

+0.5 pts Playoff odds for Houston Texans in the preferred-result branch

See the simulation impact

If Buffalo Bills wins20.7%Playoff odds

If New England Patriots wins20.2%Playoff odds

Playoffs20.7%vs20.2%

Division6.0%vs4.8%

#1 seed0.2%vs0.2%

Reach SB0.4%vs0.4%

Win SB0.1%vs0.0%

Small edge small model edge Thu 8:15 PM ET

PITPittsburgh Steelers @ CLECleveland Browns

ROOT FOR Cleveland Browns over Pittsburgh Steelers

+0.6 pts Playoff odds for Houston Texans in the preferred-result branch

See the simulation impact

If Cleveland Browns wins20.9%Playoff odds

If Pittsburgh Steelers wins20.3%Playoff odds

Playoffs20.9%vs20.3%

Division6.0%vs5.4%

#1 seed0.1%vs0.2%

Reach SB0.3%vs0.5%

Win SB0.0%vs0.0%

Small edge small model edge Sun 1:00 PM ET

ARIArizona Cardinals @ NYGNew York Giants

ROOT FOR Arizona Cardinals over New York Giants

+0.7 pts Playoff odds for Houston Texans in the preferred-result branch

See the simulation impact

If Arizona Cardinals wins20.9%Playoff odds

If New York Giants wins20.3%Playoff odds

Playoffs20.9%vs20.3%

Division5.9%vs5.5%

#1 seed0.2%vs0.2%

Reach SB0.3%vs0.6%

Win SB0.0%vs0.0%

Small edge small model edge Sun 1:00 PM ET

LARLos Angeles Rams @ PHIPhiladelphia Eagles

ROOT FOR Los Angeles Rams over Philadelphia Eagles

+0.7 pts Playoff odds for Houston Texans in the preferred-result branch

See the simulation impact

If Los Angeles Rams wins20.9%Playoff odds

If Philadelphia Eagles wins20.1%Playoff odds

Playoffs20.9%vs20.1%

Division5.6%vs5.9%

#1 seed0.2%vs0.2%

Reach SB0.4%vs0.4%

Win SB0.0%vs0.1%

Small edge small model edge Mon 8:15 PM ET

ATLAtlanta Falcons @ NONew Orleans Saints

ROOT FOR New Orleans Saints over Atlanta Falcons

+0.6 pts Playoff odds for Houston Texans in the preferred-result branch

See the simulation impact

If New Orleans Saints wins20.8%Playoff odds

If Atlanta Falcons wins20.2%Playoff odds

Playoffs20.8%vs20.2%

Division5.6%vs5.8%

#1 seed0.2%vs0.2%

Reach SB0.4%vs0.4%

Win SB0.1%vs0.0%

Minimal impact small model edge Sun 4:05 PM ET

MIAMiami Dolphins @ MINMinnesota Vikings

ROOT FOR Minnesota Vikings over Miami Dolphins

+0.2 pts Playoff odds for Houston Texans in the preferred-result branch

See the simulation impact

If Minnesota Vikings wins20.6%Playoff odds

If Miami Dolphins wins20.4%Playoff odds

Playoffs20.6%vs20.4%

Division5.8%vs5.2%

#1 seed0.1%vs0.4%

Reach SB0.4%vs0.4%

Win SB0.1%vs0.0%

Minimal impact small model edge Sun 1:00 PM ET

GBGreen Bay Packers @ TBTampa Bay Buccaneers

ROOT FOR Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Green Bay Packers

+0.4 pts Playoff odds for Houston Texans in the preferred-result branch

See the simulation impact

If Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins20.8%Playoff odds

If Green Bay Packers wins20.4%Playoff odds

Playoffs20.8%vs20.4%

Division5.6%vs5.8%

#1 seed0.2%vs0.2%

Reach SB0.3%vs0.5%

Win SB0.0%vs0.1%

Minimal impact small model edge Sun 4:25 PM ET

LACLos Angeles Chargers @ SEASeattle Seahawks

ROOT FOR Seattle Seahawks over Los Angeles Chargers

+0.4 pts Playoff odds for Houston Texans in the preferred-result branch

See the simulation impact

If Seattle Seahawks wins20.6%Playoff odds

If Los Angeles Chargers wins20.3%Playoff odds

Playoffs20.6%vs20.3%

Division5.7%vs5.8%

#1 seed0.1%vs0.3%

Reach SB0.4%vs0.6%

Win SB0.0%vs0.0%

ALL 32 TEAMS

Top rooting interest at a glance

This server-rendered table gives every fan base’s strongest current outside-game rooting interest. Use the picker above for the full slate.

TeamRoot forAgainstImpact

ARIArizona Cardinals New York JetsChicago Bears+1.7 ptsPlayoff odds ATLAtlanta Falcons Detroit LionsCarolina Panthers+2.4 ptsPlayoff odds BALBaltimore Ravens Jacksonville JaguarsCincinnati Bengals+7.4 ptsDivision odds BUFBuffalo Bills Tennessee TitansBaltimore Ravens+5.1 ptsNo. 1 seed odds CARCarolina Panthers Atlanta FalconsNew Orleans Saints+4.8 ptsPlayoff odds CHIChicago Bears Carolina PanthersDetroit Lions+5.3 ptsDivision odds CINCincinnati Bengals Tennessee TitansBaltimore Ravens+8.5 ptsDivision odds CLECleveland Browns Tennessee TitansBaltimore Ravens+3.4 ptsPlayoff odds DALDallas Cowboys Los Angeles RamsPhiladelphia Eagles+6.1 ptsDivision odds DENDenver Broncos Las Vegas RaidersKansas City Chiefs+6.1 ptsDivision odds DETDetroit Lions Miami DolphinsMinnesota Vikings+8.2 ptsDivision odds GBGreen Bay Packers Washington CommandersIndianapolis Colts+1.2 ptsPlayoff odds HOUHouston Texans Washington CommandersIndianapolis Colts+2.0 ptsPlayoff odds INDIndianapolis Colts Cincinnati BengalsJacksonville Jaguars+4.9 ptsDivision odds JAXJacksonville Jaguars New England PatriotsBuffalo Bills+7.0 ptsNo. 1 seed odds KCKansas City Chiefs New England PatriotsBuffalo Bills+6.2 ptsNo. 1 seed odds LVLas Vegas Raiders Detroit LionsCarolina Panthers+5.1 ptsPlayoff odds LACLos Angeles Chargers Jacksonville JaguarsCincinnati Bengals+0.5 ptsPlayoff odds LARLos Angeles Rams New York JetsChicago Bears+3.6 ptsPlayoff odds MIAMiami Dolphins Philadelphia EaglesLos Angeles Rams+0.2 ptsPlayoff odds MINMinnesota Vikings New York JetsChicago Bears+5.1 ptsDivision odds NENew England Patriots Kansas City ChiefsLas Vegas Raiders+3.7 ptsPlayoff odds NONew Orleans Saints Detroit LionsCarolina Panthers+7.5 ptsPlayoff odds NYGNew York Giants Houston TexansDallas Cowboys+2.9 ptsPlayoff odds NYJNew York Jets San Francisco 49ersDenver Broncos+1.3 ptsPlayoff odds PHIPhiladelphia Eagles Houston TexansDallas Cowboys+5.7 ptsPlayoff odds PITPittsburgh Steelers Washington CommandersIndianapolis Colts+2.8 ptsPlayoff odds SFSan Francisco 49ers Los Angeles ChargersSeattle Seahawks+6.3 ptsDivision odds SEASeattle Seahawks Denver BroncosSan Francisco 49ers+10.8 ptsDivision odds TBTampa Bay Buccaneers Atlanta FalconsNew Orleans Saints+2.3 ptsPlayoff odds TENTennessee Titans Kansas City ChiefsLas Vegas Raiders+0.3 ptsPlayoff odds WASWashington Commanders Houston TexansDallas Cowboys+2.0 ptsPlayoff odds

WEEKLY ARCHIVE

Rooting guides change as the playoff picture changes

Saved weekly checkpoints let fans revisit what helped their team at that point in the season.

Week 1 →Week 2 →Week 3 →Week 4 →Week 5 →Week 6 →

WHY THIS IS DIFFERENT

It measures the impact instead of guessing at rooting interests

For each unplayed Week 4 game, FSN looks at the season simulations where the away team won and the simulations where the home team won. Then it compares what happened to every other team’s playoff path.

The ranking gives playoff qualification the most weight for bubble teams. For strong contenders, division and No. 1 seed leverage becomes more important. Super Bowl paths remain a smaller secondary signal so the guide does not tell a 5–8 team to root for an exotic championship path instead of the result that actually helps it reach January.

Because these are Monte Carlo estimates, very small differences can move from refresh to refresh. FSN explicitly labels those as small or minimal rather than pretending a tenth of a percentage point is destiny.

FAQ

NFL rooting interests, explained

Why isn’t my team’s own game listed?

Because winning your own game is already the strongest direct way to improve your position. This tool answers the harder question: what should you want to happen everywhere else?

Does “+4.7 points” mean the result guarantees my playoff odds rise by exactly 4.7 points?

No. It is the difference between two conditional Monte Carlo branches in the current forecast. It is a useful estimate of leverage, not a guaranteed future update.

Will the rooting guide update after games are played?

Yes. The live guide follows the current unplayed slate. Weekly archive pages preserve the checkpoint from that week so later results do not rewrite what fans were supposed to root for beforehand.