FSN SMART SIM · 2026 WEEK 18

NFL Week 18 Predictions

Every 2026 NFL Week 18 matchup, projected with FSN’s Smart Game Simulator. Compare predicted winners, win probabilities and projected scores, then open any upcoming matchup to run 1,000, 10,000 or 50,000 simulations.

10,000 sims defaultReal player dataTransparent factorsPregame snapshots

MODEL FSN-SIM-1.0

Live forecasts update until kickoff; completed games keep their last pregame snapshot.

Data updated 28 minutes ago

NFL PREDICTIONS Week 18 Jan 10

2026 NFL WEEK 18

NFL Week 18 Predictions: Every Game

These are server-rendered FSN model forecasts, not sportsbook picks. Upcoming games continue to update as new results, player data and injury information become available. Once a game starts, its last pregame forecast is frozen for transparent historical tracking.

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals Prediction

SFSan Francisco 49ers 34

ARIArizona Cardinals 17

FSN PICK San Francisco 49ers 93%

FSN gives the San Francisco 49ers a 93% win probability against the Arizona Cardinals, with a projected score of San Francisco 49ers 34, Arizona Cardinals 17. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward San Francisco 49ers.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens Prediction

PITPittsburgh Steelers 21

BALBaltimore Ravens 28

FSN PICK Baltimore Ravens 75%

FSN gives the Baltimore Ravens a 75% win probability against the Pittsburgh Steelers, with a projected score of Pittsburgh Steelers 21, Baltimore Ravens 28. The largest current model driver is quarterback form / availability, which leans toward Baltimore Ravens.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Prediction

NYJNew York Jets 17

BUFBuffalo Bills 32

FSN PICK Buffalo Bills 91%

FSN gives the Buffalo Bills a 91% win probability against the New York Jets, with a projected score of New York Jets 17, Buffalo Bills 32. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Buffalo Bills.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers Prediction

ATLAtlanta Falcons 25

CARCarolina Panthers 28

FSN PICK Carolina Panthers 61%

FSN gives the Carolina Panthers a 61% win probability against the Atlanta Falcons, with a projected score of Atlanta Falcons 25, Carolina Panthers 28. The largest current model driver is venue / home field, which leans toward Carolina Panthers.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals Prediction

CLECleveland Browns 19

CINCincinnati Bengals 26

FSN PICK Cincinnati Bengals 75%

FSN gives the Cincinnati Bengals a 75% win probability against the Cleveland Browns, with a projected score of Cleveland Browns 19, Cincinnati Bengals 26. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Cincinnati Bengals.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos Prediction

LACLos Angeles Chargers 17

DENDenver Broncos 25

FSN PICK Denver Broncos 79%

FSN gives the Denver Broncos a 79% win probability against the Los Angeles Chargers, with a projected score of Los Angeles Chargers 17, Denver Broncos 25. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Denver Broncos.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers Prediction

DETDetroit Lions 29

GBGreen Bay Packers 24

FSN PICK Detroit Lions 66%

FSN gives the Detroit Lions a 66% win probability against the Green Bay Packers, with a projected score of Detroit Lions 29, Green Bay Packers 24. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Detroit Lions.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans Prediction

TENTennessee Titans 11

HOUHouston Texans 28

FSN PICK Houston Texans 93%

FSN gives the Houston Texans a 93% win probability against the Tennessee Titans, with a projected score of Tennessee Titans 11, Houston Texans 28. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Houston Texans.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts Prediction

JAXJacksonville Jaguars 27

INDIndianapolis Colts 18

FSN PICK Jacksonville Jaguars 80%

FSN gives the Jacksonville Jaguars a 80% win probability against the Indianapolis Colts, with a projected score of Jacksonville Jaguars 27, Indianapolis Colts 18. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Jacksonville Jaguars.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

LVLas Vegas Raiders 19

KCKansas City Chiefs 31

FSN PICK Kansas City Chiefs 86%

FSN gives the Kansas City Chiefs a 86% win probability against the Las Vegas Raiders, with a projected score of Las Vegas Raiders 19, Kansas City Chiefs 31. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Kansas City Chiefs.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams Prediction

SEASeattle Seahawks 24

LARLos Angeles Rams 24

FSN PICK Seattle Seahawks 51%

FSN gives the Seattle Seahawks a 51% win probability against the Los Angeles Rams, with a projected score of Seattle Seahawks 24, Los Angeles Rams 24. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Seattle Seahawks.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings Prediction

CHIChicago Bears 18

MINMinnesota Vikings 21

FSN PICK Minnesota Vikings 63%

FSN gives the Minnesota Vikings a 63% win probability against the Chicago Bears, with a projected score of Chicago Bears 18, Minnesota Vikings 21. The largest current model driver is epa offense / defense efficiency, which leans toward Chicago Bears.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots Prediction

MIAMiami Dolphins 12

NENew England Patriots 29

FSN PICK New England Patriots 94%

FSN gives the New England Patriots a 94% win probability against the Miami Dolphins, with a projected score of Miami Dolphins 12, New England Patriots 29. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward New England Patriots.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints Prediction

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers 25

NONew Orleans Saints 23

FSN PICK Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55%

FSN gives the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 55% win probability against the New Orleans Saints, with a projected score of Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25, New Orleans Saints 23. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants Prediction

PHIPhiladelphia Eagles 21

NYGNew York Giants 21

FSN PICK Philadelphia Eagles 50%

FSN gives the Philadelphia Eagles a 50% win probability against the New York Giants, with a projected score of Philadelphia Eagles 21, New York Giants 21. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Philadelphia Eagles.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders Prediction

DALDallas Cowboys 29

WASWashington Commanders 25

FSN PICK Dallas Cowboys 64%

FSN gives the Dallas Cowboys a 64% win probability against the Washington Commanders, with a projected score of Dallas Cowboys 29, Washington Commanders 25. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Dallas Cowboys.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Chicago Bears CHI 18

37% win

PROJECTED 10,000 simulations Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET

U.S. Bank Stadium

Minnesota Vikings MIN 21

63% win

SIMULATIONS

DATA COVERAGE Excellent

SIM RESULTS

What the simulations produced

Average score—

Median margin—

Overtime / tie path—

Simulation spread—

Most common final scores

WHY THE MODEL LEANS

Key matchup drivers

PLAYER LAYER

Quarterbacks and injuries

GAME CONTEXT

Environment and model inputs

HOW IT WORKS

A prediction tool that shows its work

FSN begins with its opponent-adjusted team rating, then layers in smaller matchup adjustments from recent results, weekly EPA/CPOE efficiency, quarterback efficiency, current injury reports, pass rush and interceptions, kicking, rest, venue and travel. Market spread/total data is used only as a capped reality check when it exists. The resulting expected margin and total become the center of a score distribution that the browser samples thousands of times.

The simulator is probabilistic, not a claim that a game will finish at one exact score. A 64% favorite still loses roughly one out of three comparable simulations. Football remains delightfully rude to certainty.

NFL SIMULATOR FAQ

How FSN weekly predictions update

Do NFL Week predictions recalculate after games are played?

Yes. Future matchups are rebuilt from the latest available team ratings, current-season results, weekly player and team efficiency data, injuries and matchup context. A Week 2 forecast can use Week 1 data; a Week 5 forecast can use Weeks 1–4.

Does FSN change an old prediction after kickoff?

No. Once kickoff passes, FSN uses the final stored pregame Smart Simulator snapshot for the historical weekly page. That prevents future information from leaking backward into old predictions.

Is the projected score supposed to be exact?

No. The projected score is the center of a probability distribution. The Monte Carlo simulation samples thousands of plausible scoring outcomes around that expectation to estimate win probability and score ranges.

Does FSN use betting lines to make the prediction?

Market spread and total data can be used as a deliberately capped sanity check when available, but they are not the primary model. FSN’s team, player, injury and matchup inputs drive the forecast.

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