FSN SMART SIM · 2026 WEEK 17

NFL Week 17 Predictions

Every 2026 NFL Week 17 matchup, projected with FSN’s Smart Game Simulator. Compare predicted winners, win probabilities and projected scores, then open any upcoming matchup to run 1,000, 10,000 or 50,000 simulations.

10,000 sims defaultReal player dataTransparent factorsPregame snapshots

MODEL FSN-SIM-1.0

Live forecasts update until kickoff; completed games keep their last pregame snapshot.

Data updated 29 minutes ago

NFL PREDICTIONS Week 17 Dec 31–Jan 4

2026 NFL WEEK 17

NFL Week 17 Predictions: Every Game

These are server-rendered FSN model forecasts, not sportsbook picks. Upcoming games continue to update as new results, player data and injury information become available. Once a game starts, its last pregame forecast is frozen for transparent historical tracking.

Thu, Dec 31 · 8:15 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals Prediction

BALBaltimore Ravens 26

CINCincinnati Bengals 24

FSN PICK Baltimore Ravens 58%

FSN gives the Baltimore Ravens a 58% win probability against the Cincinnati Bengals, with a projected score of Baltimore Ravens 26, Cincinnati Bengals 24. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Baltimore Ravens.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons Prediction

NONew Orleans Saints 22

ATLAtlanta Falcons 29

FSN PICK Atlanta Falcons 75%

FSN gives the Atlanta Falcons a 75% win probability against the New Orleans Saints, with a projected score of New Orleans Saints 22, Atlanta Falcons 29. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Atlanta Falcons.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers Prediction

SEASeattle Seahawks 29

CARCarolina Panthers 24

FSN PICK Seattle Seahawks 67%

FSN gives the Seattle Seahawks a 67% win probability against the Carolina Panthers, with a projected score of Seattle Seahawks 29, Carolina Panthers 24. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Seattle Seahawks.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns Prediction

INDIndianapolis Colts 24

CLECleveland Browns 23

FSN PICK Indianapolis Colts 54%

FSN gives the Indianapolis Colts a 54% win probability against the Cleveland Browns, with a projected score of Indianapolis Colts 24, Cleveland Browns 23. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Indianapolis Colts.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys Prediction

NYGNew York Giants 22

DALDallas Cowboys 27

FSN PICK Dallas Cowboys 67%

FSN gives the Dallas Cowboys a 67% win probability against the New York Giants, with a projected score of New York Giants 22, Dallas Cowboys 27. The largest current model driver is epa offense / defense efficiency, which leans toward Dallas Cowboys.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Washington Commanders at Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction

WASWashington Commanders 14

JAXJacksonville Jaguars 31

FSN PICK Jacksonville Jaguars 94%

FSN gives the Jacksonville Jaguars a 94% win probability against the Washington Commanders, with a projected score of Washington Commanders 14, Jacksonville Jaguars 31. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Jacksonville Jaguars.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers Prediction

KCKansas City Chiefs 28

LACLos Angeles Chargers 18

FSN PICK Kansas City Chiefs 84%

FSN gives the Kansas City Chiefs a 84% win probability against the Los Angeles Chargers, with a projected score of Kansas City Chiefs 28, Los Angeles Chargers 18. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Kansas City Chiefs.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins Prediction

BUFBuffalo Bills 33

MIAMiami Dolphins 17

FSN PICK Buffalo Bills 93%

FSN gives the Buffalo Bills a 93% win probability against the Miami Dolphins, with a projected score of Buffalo Bills 33, Miami Dolphins 17. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Buffalo Bills.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots Prediction

DENDenver Broncos 17

NENew England Patriots 24

FSN PICK New England Patriots 76%

FSN gives the New England Patriots a 76% win probability against the Denver Broncos, with a projected score of Denver Broncos 17, New England Patriots 24. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward New England Patriots.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets Prediction

MINMinnesota Vikings 21

NYJNew York Jets 15

FSN PICK Minnesota Vikings 73%

FSN gives the Minnesota Vikings a 73% win probability against the New York Jets, with a projected score of Minnesota Vikings 21, New York Jets 15. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Minnesota Vikings.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction

LARLos Angeles Rams 26

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers 19

FSN PICK Los Angeles Rams 75%

FSN gives the Los Angeles Rams a 75% win probability against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with a projected score of Los Angeles Rams 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Los Angeles Rams.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans Prediction

PITPittsburgh Steelers 25

TENTennessee Titans 14

FSN PICK Pittsburgh Steelers 84%

FSN gives the Pittsburgh Steelers a 84% win probability against the Tennessee Titans, with a projected score of Pittsburgh Steelers 25, Tennessee Titans 14. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Pittsburgh Steelers.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 3 · 4:05 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Las Vegas Raiders at Arizona Cardinals Prediction

LVLas Vegas Raiders 28

ARIArizona Cardinals 25

FSN PICK Las Vegas Raiders 62%

FSN gives the Las Vegas Raiders a 62% win probability against the Arizona Cardinals, with a projected score of Las Vegas Raiders 28, Arizona Cardinals 25. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Las Vegas Raiders.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 3 · 4:25 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Prediction

DETDetroit Lions 28

CHIChicago Bears 24

FSN PICK Detroit Lions 66%

FSN gives the Detroit Lions a 66% win probability against the Chicago Bears, with a projected score of Detroit Lions 28, Chicago Bears 24. The largest current model driver is quarterback form / availability, which leans toward Detroit Lions.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Sun, Jan 3 · 8:20 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers Prediction

PHIPhiladelphia Eagles 16

SFSan Francisco 49ers 29

FSN PICK San Francisco 49ers 90%

FSN gives the San Francisco 49ers a 90% win probability against the Philadelphia Eagles, with a projected score of Philadelphia Eagles 16, San Francisco 49ers 29. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward San Francisco 49ers.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Mon, Jan 4 · 8:15 PM ET LIVE MODEL

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers Prediction

HOUHouston Texans 23

GBGreen Bay Packers 21

FSN PICK Houston Texans 57%

FSN gives the Houston Texans a 57% win probability against the Green Bay Packers, with a projected score of Houston Texans 23, Green Bay Packers 21. The largest current model driver is opponent-adjusted team strength, which leans toward Houston Texans.

Run this matchup → Game Center →

Las Vegas Raiders LV 28

62% win

PROJECTED 10,000 simulations Sun, Jan 3 · 4:05 PM ET

State Farm Stadium

Arizona Cardinals ARI 25

38% win

SIMULATIONS

DATA COVERAGE Excellent

SIM RESULTS

What the simulations produced

Average score—

Median margin—

Overtime / tie path—

Simulation spread—

Most common final scores

WHY THE MODEL LEANS

Key matchup drivers

PLAYER LAYER

Quarterbacks and injuries

GAME CONTEXT

Environment and model inputs

HOW IT WORKS

A prediction tool that shows its work

FSN begins with its opponent-adjusted team rating, then layers in smaller matchup adjustments from recent results, weekly EPA/CPOE efficiency, quarterback efficiency, current injury reports, pass rush and interceptions, kicking, rest, venue and travel. Market spread/total data is used only as a capped reality check when it exists. The resulting expected margin and total become the center of a score distribution that the browser samples thousands of times.

The simulator is probabilistic, not a claim that a game will finish at one exact score. A 64% favorite still loses roughly one out of three comparable simulations. Football remains delightfully rude to certainty.

NFL SIMULATOR FAQ

How FSN weekly predictions update

Do NFL Week predictions recalculate after games are played?

Yes. Future matchups are rebuilt from the latest available team ratings, current-season results, weekly player and team efficiency data, injuries and matchup context. A Week 2 forecast can use Week 1 data; a Week 5 forecast can use Weeks 1–4.

Does FSN change an old prediction after kickoff?

No. Once kickoff passes, FSN uses the final stored pregame Smart Simulator snapshot for the historical weekly page. That prevents future information from leaking backward into old predictions.

Is the projected score supposed to be exact?

No. The projected score is the center of a probability distribution. The Monte Carlo simulation samples thousands of plausible scoring outcomes around that expectation to estimate win probability and score ranges.

Does FSN use betting lines to make the prediction?

Market spread and total data can be used as a deliberately capped sanity check when available, but they are not the primary model. FSN’s team, player, injury and matchup inputs drive the forecast.

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