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Football Sports News
2026 PLAYOFF PATH · 1-4

HOUSTON TEXANS
PLAYOFF PICTURE

The team’s own next result has more modeled playoff leverage than any single outside game this week.

CONTROL STATUSMostly in its own handsFSN model view · not an official clinching designation
MAKE PLAYOFFS23.8%8.4 projected wins
WIN DIVISION3.8%AFC South
NO. 1 SEED0.1%Best live seed path: #3
SUPER BOWL0.6%Most common seed: #7
Shortest Current-Week Path

What needs to go right?

Week 6
Current make playoffs chance23.8%
MODEL WIN TARGET11 wins

In 330 current simulations that finish on exactly 11 wins, 96.7% reach this target.

  1. 1
    YOUR GAMEWin your next game

    34.7% if it happens vs 17.2% if it does not

    17.5pt swing
  2. 2
    OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Seattle Seahawks

    25.5% if it happens vs 21.1% if it does not

    4.4pt swing
  3. 3
    OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Cleveland Browns

    24.7% if it happens vs 23.2% if it does not

    1.5pt swing

Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.

Outside Help

Other games that matter

Full rooting guide →
4.4pts
SEA at DENRoot for Seattle Seahawks

Playoff odds · High impact

1.5pts
BAL at CLERoot for Cleveland Browns

Playoff odds · Meaningful impact

1.3pts
NYJ at NERoot for New England Patriots

Playoff odds · Meaningful impact

1.4pts
PIT at TBRoot for Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Playoff odds · Meaningful impact

1.1pts
ARI at LARRoot for Arizona Cardinals

Playoff odds · Meaningful impact

Quick Answers

Houston Texans playoff questions

Does Houston Texans control its own destiny?

FSN currently labels the situation mostly in its own hands. That is based on modeled weekly leverage: The team’s own next result has more modeled playoff leverage than any single outside game this week. It should not be read as an official NFL clinching statement.

What if HOU wins its next game?

Its modeled playoff chance is 34.7% conditional on that win, versus 17.2% conditional on a loss.

What is the best seed still showing in the model?

Seed #3 still appears in at least 0.5% of the current FSN simulations.

NFL data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0) · College data via CollegeFootballData.com