What needs to go right?
In 292 current simulations that finish on exactly 10 wins, 85.3% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 11 wins.- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game4.7pt swing
98.4% if it happens vs 93.7% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for New Orleans Saints0.9pt swing
97.6% if it happens vs 96.7% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.9pt swing
97.5% if it happens vs 96.7% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
In 1,275 current simulations that finish on exactly 13 wins, 83.1% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 14 wins.- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game15.2pt swing
72.3% if it happens vs 57.0% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for New York Jets13.1pt swing
78.0% if it happens vs 64.8% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Jacksonville Jaguars2.1pt swing
68.7% if it happens vs 66.6% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
In 390 current simulations that finish on exactly 15 wins, 90.8% reach this target.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game13.5pt swing
31.8% if it happens vs 18.3% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Houston Texans8.3pt swing
33.1% if it happens vs 24.8% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Indianapolis Colts3.0pt swing
28.7% if it happens vs 25.6% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
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