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NFL Tiebreaker Lab

SEE WHY ONE
TEAM IS AHEAD

Compare the current completed-game tiebreak state criterion by criterion. If the standings require a tiebreak, these are the steps that matter; future results can change which step becomes decisive.

VS

4-1Buffalo Bills97.4% playoff odds
CURRENT TIEBREAK EDGEBuffalo BillsDivision tiebreak
2-3New York Jets5.6% playoff odds
Criteria Order

Where the tiebreak is decided

Division tiebreak
WHAT CAN FLIP IT?Results against common opponents can change the common-games comparison as the season progresses.
1Head-to-head
BUFNo games yet
NYJNo games yet
NOT ACTIVE YET
2Division record
BUF0-1 (0.000)
NYJNo games yet
NOT ACTIVE YET
3Common games
BUF1-0 (1.000)
NYJ0-1 (0.000)
DECISIVE
4Conference record
BUF2-1 (0.667)
NYJ2-0 (1.000)
EDGE
5Strength of victory
BUF30.0%
NYJ30.0%
TIED
6Strength of schedule
BUF36.0%
NYJ48.0%
EDGE
7Combined conference points rank
BUF#17
NYJ#16
EDGE
8Combined league points rank
BUF#29
NYJ#33
EDGE
9Net points in common games
BUF+10
NYJ-7
EDGE
10Net points in all games
BUF+23
NYJ-3
EDGE

This explains the current completed-game tiebreak state using the same criteria order as the FSN season model. A tiebreak only determines position when the standings require one, and future results can change which criterion becomes decisive.

Important

This is a live explanation, not a frozen verdict.

Tiebreakers are evaluated from completed games. A future head-to-head result, conference game or common opponent can move the decision to a different criterion. Multi-team ties can also use restart rules that differ from a simple two-team comparison.

NFL data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0) · College data via CollegeFootballData.com