Updated Sept. 15, 2026: This article was originally published before Week 1. It has been updated to separate the preseason projection from what actually happened in the opener.
CBS Sports entered the 2026 season skeptical of the Atlanta Falcons, with analysts Jared Dubin and Tyler Sullivan both leaning under 7.5 wins. Their reasoning centered on quarterback uncertainty, a difficult schedule and a pass rush that had already lost important pieces before the opener.
One game cannot validate a season-long win-total prediction, but Atlanta’s 20-13 Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh showed why the quarterback concern was not theoretical. The Falcons named Tua Tagovailoa their Week 1 starter on Sept. 7, then ruled him out four days later because of an oblique injury. Michael Penix Jr. was also inactive as he continued working back from knee surgery, leaving Cooper Rush to start against the Steelers.
The quarterback uncertainty arrived immediately
Rush completed 12 of 22 passes in Pittsburgh and threw two interceptions. One of those became a T.J. Watt pick-six in the fourth quarter, the defining play in Atlanta’s 20-13 defeat. The Falcons also lost possessions to other mistakes and never created enough consistent offense to overcome them.
FSN’s Week 1 Steelers-Falcons recap examined how Pittsburgh’s defense controlled the game. From Atlanta’s side, the larger issue is that the exact variable CBS Sports identified before the season — stability at quarterback — became a problem before the first kickoff.
That does not mean the Falcons are destined to finish below eight wins. Tagovailoa’s injury could be short-term, Penix could become available and Atlanta plays in an NFC South that may remain competitive deep into the season. But an under-7.5 argument becomes easier to understand when a team is already moving between quarterback plans in September.
Why one loss still is not enough to judge the projection
Win totals are season-long forecasts, not Week 1 predictions. Atlanta can lose at Pittsburgh and still reach eight wins. The Falcons can also play better football than they did in the opener without solving every structural concern.
The useful question is whether the Week 1 loss exposed something repeatable. Turnovers, protection problems and uncertainty over who will be available at quarterback can follow a team from week to week. A single missed field goal or tipped pass is noise; a rotating quarterback plan can become part of the season’s identity.
Atlanta’s next games will therefore tell us more than the 0-1 record by itself. If the Falcons stabilize the position and play cleaner football, the preseason skepticism will look less important. If they continue cycling through contingencies, the under case will strengthen.
The Cardinals already challenged a different CBS Sports projection
The same CBS Sports win-total piece leaned under 3.5 wins for the Arizona Cardinals, largely because of a difficult NFC West schedule and cross-division matchups against the AFC West and NFC East.
Arizona immediately pushed back on that forecast by beating the Los Angeles Chargers 26-14 in Week 1. Jacoby Brissett threw for 277 yards, Trey McBride caught nine passes for 95 yards and a touchdown, and the Cardinals used a blocked punt and an interception to control the fourth quarter.
That upset does not make the schedule easier. Arizona still has two games each against San Francisco, Seattle and the Rams, plus a demanding nondivision slate. But when the preseason number is only 3.5 wins, every early upset carries more weight. A team projected to struggle does not need to become a contender to beat that total; it only needs four victories.
FSN also tracked Jeremiyah Love’s Week 1 availability before the opener, and the rookie scored in Arizona’s win. That is the kind of young-player contribution that can change the assumptions behind a preseason forecast.
What the preseason calls look like after Week 1
The Falcons and Cardinals are a useful reminder of how preseason projections should be read. They are probability statements built from roster quality, quarterback play, schedule strength and expected health. They are not verdicts.
Atlanta’s opener reinforced the central reason analysts were cautious: the quarterback room was unsettled enough that the named starter never reached Week 1 and the backup’s turnovers helped decide the game. Arizona’s opener did the opposite. The Cardinals took a forecast built around schedule difficulty and immediately banked a road win over a favored Chargers team.
That divergence is exactly why the best use of preseason win totals is as a baseline. Week 1 does not settle either prediction, but it gives us the first real evidence for how those assumptions are holding up.