Updated Sept. 15, 2026: This article was originally published as a summary of CBS Sports’ preseason last-place projections. It has been updated with Week 1 results to test which assumptions already look stronger, weaker or still unresolved.
Before the 2026 season, CBS Sports projected the Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders as potential last-place finishers in their divisions.
Week 1 immediately complicated that picture. Miami and Cleveland both lost by double digits, Las Vegas beat Miami 27-13 in Klint Kubiak’s coaching debut, and Washington came within a failed two-point conversion of tying Philadelphia late in a 24-22 loss.
One game cannot validate or destroy a season-long projection. It can, however, expose which preseason assumptions already have real evidence behind them.
Las Vegas delivered the clearest rebuttal
The Raiders were the most direct challenge to CBS Sports’ preseason call because they did not merely win; they played the kind of complementary football that a projected last-place team is not supposed to have ready in Week 1.
Las Vegas beat Miami 27-13 behind a controlled opening game from veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins, 147 scrimmage yards from Ashton Jeanty and a defense that finished with five sacks. Cousins threw three touchdown passes, and Jeanty gave the offense balance both as a runner and receiver.
The defensive performance was just as important. The Raiders held Miami to 2-for-10 on third down, intercepted Malik Willis and forced a late fumble. Kubiak’s team also opened the game with a 93-yard touchdown drive that consumed nearly nine minutes, a possession that immediately established the style Las Vegas wanted to play.
That does not prove the Raiders will contend in the AFC West. Kansas City and the Chargers still make the division difficult, and a long season will test the roster’s depth. But a last-place projection built around uncertainty at quarterback and a rebuilding roster looks less comfortable after the Raiders opened with a complete two-score win.
Miami’s opener strengthened the concern
The same game moved the Dolphins in the opposite direction.
Miami finished with 259 total yards and struggled to sustain offense. The Dolphins allowed five sacks, went 2-for-10 on third down and scored only 13 points. They were within one score for stretches, but Las Vegas repeatedly won the situations that determine whether a close game stays close.
A Week 1 road loss does not condemn Miami to the AFC East basement. The Dolphins can improve protection, create more efficient early-down offense and get healthier. But the opener supported the type of concern behind a last-place forecast: when the offense was forced to function through pressure and long-yardage situations, it did not have enough answers.
That matters in a division where New England and Buffalo have playoff-level expectations and where Miami cannot afford to spend September discovering basic offensive stability.
Cleveland’s 34-10 loss was the roughest evidence of the group
The Browns entered Jacksonville with questions about offensive identity and quarterback stability. Their 34-10 loss made those questions harder to dismiss.
Cleveland fell behind 24-0 by halftime and 31-0 early in the third quarter. The Browns finished with 272 net yards, committed two turnovers and were penalized 11 times for 75 yards. Deshaun Watson completed 16 of 22 passes for 205 yards, a touchdown and an interception in his first regular-season start since 2024, but most of Cleveland’s useful offense arrived after the game was already out of reach.
Jacksonville also controlled the line of scrimmage. The Jaguars sacked Watson five times, while Cleveland managed only one sack of Trevor Lawrence. Quinshon Judkins rushed 12 times for 33 yards, leaving the Browns without the ground-game efficiency needed to protect the quarterback or slow Jacksonville’s pressure.
Cleveland’s own Week 1 recap makes the larger issue clear: the loss touched several categories that are difficult to fix overnight — protection, penalties, turnovers and offensive balance. FSN’s Browns team page will track whether those problems become a trend or an opening-week outlier.
Washington’s loss was much less conclusive
The Commanders lost 24-22 to the Eagles, but their Week 1 performance looked very different from Miami’s or Cleveland’s.
Washington was two yards from forcing a tie in the final minute. Jayden Daniels threw a late touchdown pass to Antonio Williams to make the score 24-22, and the Commanders chose to go for two. Philadelphia stopped a shovel pass to John Bates at the line of scrimmage.
There were real problems. Washington’s offense went through long stretches without a first down, and the team’s own postgame analysis noted only 50 yards across seven non-scoring drives. But the Commanders also rushed for 132 yards, recorded three sacks and pushed the defending NFC East champions to the final possession.
That is not evidence that a last-place prediction is impossible. It is evidence that Week 1 did not strongly support it. Washington looked competitive enough that the preseason projection still needs much more data.
Why preseason last-place picks should be treated as hypotheses
Division-bottom projections are especially fragile because they depend on two separate questions: how good the projected team is and how good the other three teams in the division become.
Las Vegas can improve substantially and still finish fourth in a strong AFC West. Washington can play competitive football and still struggle in a deep NFC East. Cleveland can recover from an ugly opener if the offense stabilizes. Miami can correct protection issues before they become a season-long identity.
That is why Week 1 is best used as a stress test rather than a verdict.
For the Raiders, the first evidence pushed against the preseason call. For the Dolphins and Browns, the first evidence supported the concerns. For Washington, the opener was too competitive to treat as confirmation of anything beyond a narrow loss.
The projections remain useful because they establish the questions. The games now get to answer them.