What needs to go right?
In 1,066 current simulations that finish on exactly 10 wins, 83.7% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 11 wins.- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game14.9pt swing
85.3% if it happens vs 70.3% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Arizona Cardinals2.7pt swing
81.6% if it happens vs 79.0% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Dallas Cowboys2.7pt swing
80.9% if it happens vs 78.3% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game4.5pt swing
8.9% if it happens vs 4.4% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Washington Commanders5.4pt swing
11.7% if it happens vs 6.4% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Houston Texans2.0pt swing
8.4% if it happens vs 6.4% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game2.7pt swing
5.3% if it happens vs 2.6% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Washington Commanders2.3pt swing
6.2% if it happens vs 3.9% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Houston Texans1.7pt swing
5.3% if it happens vs 3.6% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
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