What needs to go right?
In 60 current simulations that finish on exactly 10 wins, 88.3% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 11 wins.- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game0.5pt swing
99.8% if it happens vs 99.3% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Los Angeles Rams0.4pt swing
99.8% if it happens vs 99.4% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
In 1,016 current simulations that finish on exactly 13 wins, 88.9% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 14 wins.- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game6.0pt swing
91.6% if it happens vs 85.5% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Denver Broncos4.8pt swing
93.6% if it happens vs 88.8% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Jacksonville Jaguars2.2pt swing
91.5% if it happens vs 89.3% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
In 1,339 current simulations that finish on exactly 14 wins, 88.6% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 15 wins.- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game14.0pt swing
76.3% if it happens vs 62.3% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Los Angeles Chargers2.5pt swing
76.4% if it happens vs 73.9% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for New Orleans Saints2.0pt swing
75.4% if it happens vs 73.5% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
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