What needs to go right?
In 790 current simulations that finish on exactly 9 wins, 87.2% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 10 wins.- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game18.6pt swing
46.4% if it happens vs 27.8% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Green Bay Packers5.5pt swing
41.5% if it happens vs 35.9% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Carolina Panthers3.3pt swing
40.4% if it happens vs 37.1% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
In 790 current simulations that finish on exactly 9 wins, 75.9% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 10 wins.- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game16.1pt swing
42.2% if it happens vs 26.1% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Green Bay Packers8.8pt swing
39.7% if it happens vs 30.9% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Carolina Panthers5.0pt swing
37.9% if it happens vs 32.9% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game0.0pt swing
0.0% if it happens vs 0.1% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
Other games that matter
Division odds · Huge impact
Division odds · Huge impact
Playoff odds · High impact
Division odds · Meaningful impact
Playoff odds · Meaningful impact