What needs to go right?
In 964 current simulations that finish on exactly 10 wins, 95.0% reach this target.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game13.5pt swing
92.2% if it happens vs 78.7% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Chicago Bears1.8pt swing
90.0% if it happens vs 88.2% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Jacksonville Jaguars1.8pt swing
89.7% if it happens vs 87.9% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
In 606 current simulations that finish on exactly 13 wins, 75.9% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 14 wins.- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game14.4pt swing
35.1% if it happens vs 20.7% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Las Vegas Raiders15.0pt swing
42.4% if it happens vs 27.4% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Houston Texans2.4pt swing
33.2% if it happens vs 30.8% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game4.6pt swing
7.9% if it happens vs 3.3% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Houston Texans4.4pt swing
9.5% if it happens vs 5.1% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Los Angeles Chargers1.5pt swing
8.1% if it happens vs 6.6% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
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