2026 PLAYOFF PATH · 3-2

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
PLAYOFF PICTURE

Q: Does Las Vegas Raiders control its own destiny?

FSN currently labels the situation mostly in its own hands. The team’s own next result has more modeled playoff leverage than any single outside game this week. This is a model-leverage description, not an official NFL clinching determination.

Q: What if LV wins its next game?

The FSN model has playoff odds at 24.3% conditional on a win versus 10.3% conditional on a loss.

The team’s own next result has more modeled playoff leverage than any single outside game this week.

CONTROL STATUSMostly in its own handsFSN model view · not an official clinching designation

MAKE PLAYOFFS14.3%7.7 projected wins

WIN DIVISION2.1%AFC West

NO. 1 SEED0.0%Best live seed path: #4

SUPER BOWL0.0%Most common seed: #7

Shortest Current-Week Path

What needs to go right?

Week 6

Current make playoffs chance14.3%

MODEL WIN TARGET11 wins

In 153 current simulations that finish on exactly 11 wins, 98.7% reach this target.

1
YOUR GAMEWin your next game
24.3% if it happens vs 10.3% if it does not
14.0pt swing
2
OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Tennessee Titans
16.4% if it happens vs 13.6% if it does not
2.8pt swing
3
OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Los Angeles Chargers
15.8% if it happens vs 14.1% if it does not
1.8pt swing

Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.

Outside Help

Other games that matter

Full rooting guide →

2.8pts

TEN at INDRoot for Tennessee Titans

Playoff odds · High impact

1.8pts

LAC at KCRoot for Los Angeles Chargers

Playoff odds · Meaningful impact

1.5pts

PIT at TBRoot for Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Playoff odds · Meaningful impact

1.2pts

SEA at DENRoot for Seattle Seahawks

Playoff odds · Meaningful impact

1.2pts

NO at NYGRoot for New York Giants

Playoff odds · Meaningful impact

Quick Answers

Las Vegas Raiders playoff questions

Does Las Vegas Raiders control its own destiny?

FSN currently labels the situation mostly in its own hands. That is based on modeled weekly leverage: The team’s own next result has more modeled playoff leverage than any single outside game this week. It should not be read as an official NFL clinching statement.

What if LV wins its next game?

Its modeled playoff chance is 24.3% conditional on that win, versus 10.3% conditional on a loss.

What is the best seed still showing in the model?

Seed #4 still appears in at least 0.5% of the current FSN simulations.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERSPLAYOFF PICTURE

What needs to go right?

Other games that matter

Las Vegas Raiders playoff questions

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
PLAYOFF PICTURE