2026 PLAYOFF PATH · 2-3

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
PLAYOFF PICTURE

Q: Does Indianapolis Colts control its own destiny?

FSN currently labels the situation mostly in its own hands. The team’s own next result has more modeled playoff leverage than any single outside game this week. This is a model-leverage description, not an official NFL clinching determination.

Q: What if IND wins its next game?

The FSN model has playoff odds at 19.0% conditional on a win versus 10.2% conditional on a loss.

The team’s own next result has more modeled playoff leverage than any single outside game this week.

CONTROL STATUSMostly in its own handsFSN model view · not an official clinching designation

MAKE PLAYOFFS16.8%8.1 projected wins

WIN DIVISION2.7%AFC South

NO. 1 SEED0.0%Best live seed path: #3

SUPER BOWL0.0%Most common seed: #7

Shortest Current-Week Path

What needs to go right?

Week 6

Current make playoffs chance16.8%

MODEL WIN TARGET11 wins

In 262 current simulations that finish on exactly 11 wins, 96.2% reach this target.

1
YOUR GAMEWin your next game
19.0% if it happens vs 10.2% if it does not
8.8pt swing
2
OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Buffalo Bills
17.9% if it happens vs 14.2% if it does not
3.7pt swing
3
OUTSIDE HELPRoot for New York Jets
18.7% if it happens vs 16.2% if it does not
2.5pt swing

Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.

Outside Help

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3.7pts

BUF at LVRoot for Buffalo Bills

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2.5pts

NYJ at NERoot for New York Jets

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2.4pts

CAR at PHIRoot for Philadelphia Eagles

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2.2pts

SEA at DENRoot for Seattle Seahawks

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1.3pts

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Quick Answers

Indianapolis Colts playoff questions

Does Indianapolis Colts control its own destiny?

FSN currently labels the situation mostly in its own hands. That is based on modeled weekly leverage: The team’s own next result has more modeled playoff leverage than any single outside game this week. It should not be read as an official NFL clinching statement.

What if IND wins its next game?

Its modeled playoff chance is 19.0% conditional on that win, versus 10.2% conditional on a loss.

What is the best seed still showing in the model?

Seed #3 still appears in at least 0.5% of the current FSN simulations.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTSPLAYOFF PICTURE

What needs to go right?

Other games that matter

Indianapolis Colts playoff questions

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
PLAYOFF PICTURE