What needs to go right?
In 933 current simulations that finish on exactly 10 wins, 83.1% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 11 wins.- 1OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Denver Broncos2.8pt swing
87.1% if it happens vs 84.3% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Los Angeles Chargers2.8pt swing
87.8% if it happens vs 85.0% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
In 716 current simulations that finish on exactly 13 wins, 89.1% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 14 wins.- 1OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Dallas Cowboys3.4pt swing
45.2% if it happens vs 41.8% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for New York Giants2.2pt swing
44.1% if it happens vs 41.9% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
In 38 current simulations that finish on exactly 15 wins, 84.2% reach this target.
- 1OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Washington Commanders4.9pt swing
12.6% if it happens vs 7.7% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for New York Giants1.7pt swing
9.1% if it happens vs 7.4% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
Other games that matter
Playoff odds · High impact
Playoff odds · High impact
No. 1 seed odds · High impact
Playoff odds · Meaningful impact
Division odds · Meaningful impact