What needs to go right?
In 1,152 current simulations that finish on exactly 10 wins, 86.4% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 11 wins.- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game16.0pt swing
64.2% if it happens vs 48.2% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Los Angeles Chargers3.8pt swing
57.7% if it happens vs 53.9% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Tampa Bay Buccaneers3.2pt swing
56.2% if it happens vs 53.0% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game7.8pt swing
16.9% if it happens vs 9.1% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Los Angeles Chargers11.3pt swing
21.9% if it happens vs 10.6% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for San Francisco 49ers1.7pt swing
12.4% if it happens vs 10.7% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game2.0pt swing
2.7% if it happens vs 0.7% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for New York Jets1.0pt swing
2.2% if it happens vs 1.2% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Houston Texans0.7pt swing
1.9% if it happens vs 1.2% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
Other games that matter
Division odds · Huge impact
Playoff odds · High impact
Playoff odds · High impact
Playoff odds · Meaningful impact
Playoff odds · Meaningful impact