#1
100LEVERAGE
AWAYNew England Patriots
HOMEBuffalo Bills
Biggest downstream swings
NEPlayoff odds21.1 ptsOwn result
BUFNo. 1 seed odds19.2 ptsOwn result
JAXNo. 1 seed odds7.0 ptsRoot for NE
KCNo. 1 seed odds6.2 ptsRoot for NE
2026 NFL WEEK 4GAME
GAME
LEVERAGE INDEX
Which games matter beyond the scoreboard? FSN measures how much each result can move playoff, division and No. 1-seed paths across the league.
100WEEK'S MAXRelative scale
#2
99LEVERAGE
AWAYKansas City Chiefs
HOMELas Vegas Raiders
Biggest downstream swings
KCDivision odds20.9 ptsOwn result
LVPlayoff odds19.9 ptsOwn result
DENDivision odds6.1 ptsRoot for LV
BUFNo. 1 seed odds4.9 ptsRoot for LV
#3
98LEVERAGE
AWAYPittsburgh Steelers
HOMECleveland Browns
Biggest downstream swings
PITPlayoff odds23.0 ptsOwn result
CLEPlayoff odds18.8 ptsOwn result
CINDivision odds3.6 ptsRoot for CLE
DALPlayoff odds2.4 ptsRoot for PIT
#4
96LEVERAGE
AWAYLos Angeles Rams
HOMEPhiladelphia Eagles
Biggest downstream swings
LARPlayoff odds20.9 ptsOwn result
PHIPlayoff odds15.0 ptsOwn result
DALDivision odds6.1 ptsRoot for LAR
DETPlayoff odds4.2 ptsRoot for PHI
#5
93LEVERAGE
AWAYDenver Broncos
HOMESan Francisco 49ers
Biggest downstream swings
DENPlayoff odds16.2 ptsOwn result
SFNo. 1 seed odds14.4 ptsOwn result
SEADivision odds10.8 ptsRoot for DEN
KCDivision odds5.5 ptsRoot for SF
#6
92LEVERAGE
AWAYDetroit Lions
HOMECarolina Panthers
Biggest downstream swings
CARPlayoff odds15.1 ptsOwn result
DETDivision odds13.8 ptsOwn result
NODivision odds9.7 ptsRoot for DET
MINDivision odds8.3 ptsRoot for CAR
#7
92LEVERAGE
AWAYAtlanta Falcons
HOMENew Orleans Saints
Biggest downstream swings
NOPlayoff odds20.3 ptsOwn result
ATLPlayoff odds12.2 ptsOwn result
CARDivision odds6.6 ptsRoot for ATL
TBDivision odds2.5 ptsRoot for ATL
#8
90LEVERAGE
AWAYJacksonville Jaguars
HOMECincinnati Bengals
Biggest downstream swings
CINPlayoff odds16.8 ptsOwn result
JAXNo. 1 seed odds13.4 ptsOwn result
BALDivision odds7.4 ptsRoot for JAX
INDDivision odds4.9 ptsRoot for CIN
#9
87LEVERAGE
AWAYDallas Cowboys
HOMEHouston Texans
Biggest downstream swings
DALPlayoff odds14.9 ptsOwn result
HOUPlayoff odds12.9 ptsOwn result
PHIDivision odds6.3 ptsRoot for HOU
LVPlayoff odds4.0 ptsRoot for DAL
#10
83LEVERAGE
AWAYNew York Jets
HOMEChicago Bears
Biggest downstream swings
CHIPlayoff odds14.9 ptsOwn result
NYJPlayoff odds8.6 ptsOwn result
MINDivision odds5.1 ptsRoot for NYJ
DETDivision odds5.0 ptsRoot for NYJ
#11
82LEVERAGE
AWAYTennessee Titans
HOMEBaltimore Ravens
Biggest downstream swings
BALPlayoff odds13.7 ptsOwn result
CINDivision odds8.5 ptsRoot for TEN
BUFNo. 1 seed odds5.1 ptsRoot for TEN
CLEDivision odds4.3 ptsRoot for TEN
#12
82LEVERAGE
AWAYMiami Dolphins
HOMEMinnesota Vikings
Biggest downstream swings
MINDivision odds13.4 ptsOwn result
DETDivision odds8.2 ptsRoot for MIA
SFNo. 1 seed odds6.0 ptsRoot for MIA
CHIDivision odds5.2 ptsRoot for MIA
#13
77LEVERAGE
AWAYIndianapolis Colts
HOMEWashington Commanders
Biggest downstream swings
INDPlayoff odds12.5 ptsOwn result
WASPlayoff odds7.2 ptsOwn result
PHIDivision odds3.8 ptsRoot for IND
PITPlayoff odds2.8 ptsRoot for WAS
#14
71LEVERAGE
AWAYArizona Cardinals
HOMENew York Giants
Biggest downstream swings
NYGPlayoff odds9.0 ptsOwn result
ARIPlayoff odds5.9 ptsOwn result
PHIDivision odds3.8 ptsRoot for ARI
DALDivision odds2.9 ptsRoot for ARI
#15
68LEVERAGE
AWAYLos Angeles Chargers
HOMESeattle Seahawks
Biggest downstream swings
SEAPlayoff odds6.9 ptsOwn result
SFDivision odds6.3 ptsRoot for LAC
DALPlayoff odds3.8 ptsRoot for LAC
PHIPlayoff odds3.0 ptsRoot for SEA
#16
62LEVERAGE
AWAYGreen Bay Packers
HOMETampa Bay Buccaneers
Biggest downstream swings
GBPlayoff odds4.6 ptsOwn result
TBPlayoff odds4.3 ptsOwn result
NODivision odds4.2 ptsRoot for GB
DALDivision odds2.5 ptsRoot for TB
Relative to this week — not a betting grade.
FSN Leverage Score is relative within the selected week. It blends the largest modeled playoff/division/No. 1-seed swings with how many clubs are materially affected; it is not a betting rating. The underlying probability swings come from the same saved season trials used by the Playoff Predictor and Rooting Guide.