What needs to go right?
In 984 current simulations that finish on exactly 10 wins, 76.9% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 11 wins.- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game15.7pt swing
44.7% if it happens vs 29.1% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Carolina Panthers2.5pt swing
38.5% if it happens vs 36.0% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Green Bay Packers1.9pt swing
38.3% if it happens vs 36.4% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
In 66 current simulations that finish on exactly 13 wins, 92.4% reach this target.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game7.4pt swing
14.3% if it happens vs 6.9% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Cleveland Browns3.1pt swing
12.8% if it happens vs 9.7% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Washington Commanders1.5pt swing
12.1% if it happens vs 10.6% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game0.5pt swing
0.7% if it happens vs 0.2% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Los Angeles Chargers0.4pt swing
0.8% if it happens vs 0.4% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Las Vegas Raiders0.3pt swing
0.6% if it happens vs 0.4% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
Other games that matter
Division odds · High impact
Playoff odds · Meaningful impact
Playoff odds · Meaningful impact
Playoff odds · Meaningful impact
Playoff odds · Meaningful impact