What needs to go right?
In 1,190 current simulations that finish on exactly 10 wins, 88.7% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 11 wins.- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game18.8pt swing
63.8% if it happens vs 45.0% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Atlanta Falcons3.6pt swing
62.3% if it happens vs 58.7% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Jacksonville Jaguars2.6pt swing
61.5% if it happens vs 58.9% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game1.5pt swing
2.4% if it happens vs 0.9% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for New York Giants1.0pt swing
2.5% if it happens vs 1.5% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Las Vegas Raiders0.8pt swing
2.7% if it happens vs 1.9% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game1.1pt swing
1.5% if it happens vs 0.3% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Kansas City Chiefs0.8pt swing
1.4% if it happens vs 0.5% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for New York Giants0.5pt swing
1.5% if it happens vs 1.0% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
Other games that matter
Playoff odds · High impact
Playoff odds · High impact
Playoff odds · Meaningful impact
Playoff odds · Meaningful impact
Playoff odds · Meaningful impact

