What needs to go right?
In 856 current simulations that finish on exactly 10 wins, 80.7% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 11 wins.- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game18.8pt swing
43.4% if it happens vs 24.6% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Arizona Cardinals5.3pt swing
39.5% if it happens vs 34.2% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Denver Broncos2.6pt swing
36.7% if it happens vs 34.1% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
In 56 current simulations that finish on exactly 13 wins, 78.6% reach this target.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game3.9pt swing
7.7% if it happens vs 3.8% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for New Orleans Saints1.3pt swing
6.8% if it happens vs 5.5% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Buffalo Bills0.8pt swing
6.2% if it happens vs 5.4% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game0.4pt swing
0.5% if it happens vs 0.1% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Washington Commanders0.5pt swing
0.7% if it happens vs 0.2% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Philadelphia Eagles0.3pt swing
0.5% if it happens vs 0.1% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
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