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Football Sports News
2026 PLAYOFF PATH · 3-2

CHICAGO BEARS
PLAYOFF PICTURE

The team’s own next result has more modeled playoff leverage than any single outside game this week.

CONTROL STATUSMostly in its own handsFSN model view · not an official clinching designation
MAKE PLAYOFFS29.4%8.6 projected wins
WIN DIVISION3.9%NFC North
NO. 1 SEED0.1%Best live seed path: #2
SUPER BOWL0.2%Most common seed: #7
Shortest Current-Week Path

What needs to go right?

Week 6
Current make playoffs chance29.4%
MODEL WIN TARGET11 wins

In 406 current simulations that finish on exactly 11 wins, 97.3% reach this target.

  1. 1
    YOUR GAMEWin your next game

    38.3% if it happens vs 21.0% if it does not

    17.2pt swing
  2. 2
    OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Denver Broncos

    31.6% if it happens vs 28.0% if it does not

    3.6pt swing
  3. 3
    OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Arizona Cardinals

    31.9% if it happens vs 28.9% if it does not

    3.0pt swing

Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.

Outside Help

Other games that matter

Full rooting guide →
3.6pts
SEA at DENRoot for Denver Broncos

Playoff odds · High impact

3.0pts
ARI at LARRoot for Arizona Cardinals

Playoff odds · High impact

2.2pts
DAL at GBRoot for Dallas Cowboys

Playoff odds · Meaningful impact

2.0pts
PIT at TBRoot for Pittsburgh Steelers

Playoff odds · Meaningful impact

1.2pts
HOU at JAXRoot for Houston Texans

Playoff odds · Meaningful impact

Quick Answers

Chicago Bears playoff questions

Does Chicago Bears control its own destiny?

FSN currently labels the situation mostly in its own hands. That is based on modeled weekly leverage: The team’s own next result has more modeled playoff leverage than any single outside game this week. It should not be read as an official NFL clinching statement.

What if CHI wins its next game?

Its modeled playoff chance is 38.3% conditional on that win, versus 21.0% conditional on a loss.

What is the best seed still showing in the model?

Seed #2 still appears in at least 0.5% of the current FSN simulations.

NFL data via nflverse (CC BY 4.0) · College data via CollegeFootballData.com