What needs to go right?
In 1,133 current simulations that finish on exactly 9 wins, 81.4% reach this target.
A 90%+ model path first appears at 10 wins.- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game14.5pt swing
72.6% if it happens vs 58.1% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Chicago Bears6.7pt swing
70.1% if it happens vs 63.4% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Pittsburgh Steelers2.5pt swing
67.8% if it happens vs 65.3% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
In 958 current simulations that finish on exactly 10 wins, 91.9% reach this target.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game13.4pt swing
68.5% if it happens vs 55.2% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Chicago Bears8.5pt swing
67.4% if it happens vs 58.9% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Pittsburgh Steelers3.5pt swing
64.7% if it happens vs 61.2% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
- 1YOUR GAMEWin your next game1.1pt swing
1.3% if it happens vs 0.2% if it does not
- 2OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Arizona Cardinals0.6pt swing
1.3% if it happens vs 0.7% if it does not
- 3OUTSIDE HELPRoot for Washington Commanders0.6pt swing
1.3% if it happens vs 0.8% if it does not
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
Other games that matter
Playoff odds · Huge impact
Playoff odds · High impact
Playoff odds · Meaningful impact
Playoff odds · Meaningful impact
Playoff odds · Meaningful impact