The path is extremely narrow in the current simulation and likely requires both wins and outside help.
CONTROL STATUSLong-shot pathFSN model view · not an official clinching designation
MAKE PLAYOFFS0.1%4.5 projected wins
WIN DIVISION0.0%NFC West
NO. 1 SEED0.0%No modeled seed yet
SUPER BOWL0.0%Most common seed: #7
Shortest Current-Week Path
What needs to go right?
Week 6
Current make playoffs chance0.1%
1
YOUR GAMEWin your next game
0.2% if it happens vs 0.0% if it does not
0.2pt swing
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
Current win division chance0.0%
1
YOUR GAMEWin your next game
0.0% if it happens vs 0.0% if it does not
0.0pt swing
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
Current get no. 1 seed chance0.0%
1
YOUR GAMEWin your next game
0.0% if it happens vs 0.0% if it does not
0.0pt swing
Each step shows its isolated conditional effect inside the same FSN season simulations. Effects are not added together because game outcomes are correlated. Win targets are conditional on final win totals, not official clinching thresholds.
FSN currently labels the situation long-shot path. That is based on modeled weekly leverage: The path is extremely narrow in the current simulation and likely requires both wins and outside help. It should not be read as an official NFL clinching statement.
What if ARI wins its next game?
Its modeled playoff chance is 0.2% conditional on that win, versus 0.0% conditional on a loss.
What is the best seed still showing in the model?
No playoff seed clears the current display threshold.
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