DFS projection systems are usually easiest to find before kickoff and hardest to find after the games are over.
FSN should work the other way.
The Week 2 NFL DFS Lineup Builder still preserves the projections, salaries, ceilings and value estimates that were published before the slate. Now that the games are final, those numbers can be compared with what actually happened.
This first audit focuses on five prominent DraftKings quarterbacks from the Week 2 board: Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye and Justin Herbert.
Using standard DraftKings NFL scoring for quarterback passing and rushing production, three of those five beat the FSN projection by more than six fantasy points. Two missed by roughly nine to 10 points.
Dak Prescott: projected 21.5, scored about 29.8 DK points
FSN had Prescott at 21.5 projected DraftKings points and $6,400, a 3.35x salary-value estimate. The actual result was much better.
Prescott completed 26 of 31 passes for 279 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in Dallas’ 37-20 win over Washington. He also rushed for 26 yards.
Under standard DraftKings scoring, that works out to roughly 29.8 points: 11.16 from passing yardage, 16 from four passing touchdowns and 2.6 from rushing yards.
The projection therefore undershot Prescott by about 8.3 points.
More important than the raw error is the reason the call was useful. FSN already identified Prescott as one of the strongest salary-adjusted quarterback options on the slate. The ceiling was 30.3, and his actual output landed almost exactly there.
Brock Purdy: projected 21.2, scored about 28.5
Purdy was another FSN value target at $6,200 with a 21.2-point projection and 3.42x value estimate.
He went 20-of-22 for 287 yards and two passing touchdowns against Miami, then added 30 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. San Francisco won 35-13.
That produces approximately 28.5 DraftKings points: 11.48 passing-yard points, eight passing-touchdown points, three rushing-yard points and six for the rushing score.
FSN missed low by roughly 7.3 points, but the process signal was strong. Purdy was priced below several elite quarterbacks while carrying a high projection and one of the board’s strongest value ratios.
Patrick Mahomes: projected 19.5, scored about 32.0
Mahomes was the clearest value hit of the five.
FSN listed him at only $5,500 on DraftKings with a 19.5-point projection and the best displayed quarterback value on the board at 3.54x.
He then threw for 382 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in Kansas City’s 33-30 overtime win over Indianapolis, adding 17 rushing yards.
DraftKings awards a three-point bonus for a 300-yard passing game. With that bonus, Mahomes’ standard-scoring total comes to approximately 32.0 points.
That is about 12.5 points above the FSN median projection. It is also exactly why salary value matters. A projection does not have to predict the final total precisely to identify a player whose expected production is unusually cheap relative to salary.
Drake Maye: projected 19.4, scored about 9.0
Maye was projected for 19.4 DraftKings points at $6,100. New England won comfortably, 20-3, but the fantasy production did not flow through its quarterback.
Maye completed 14 of 22 passes for 208 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. He added 17 rushing yards.
That creates roughly 9.0 DraftKings points. The projection missed high by approximately 10.4.
This is a useful example of the difference between team success and DFS success. A quarterback can lead a winning offense without accumulating the touchdown volume or yardage needed to justify his fantasy salary.
Justin Herbert: projected 19.3, scored about 9.9
Herbert produced a similar miss in a much worse real-world result.
FSN projected 19.3 DraftKings points at $6,000. Herbert finished with 192 passing yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in a 26-14 loss to Las Vegas, plus two rushing yards.
That yields about 9.9 DraftKings points under standard scoring, around 9.4 below the FSN projection.
The five-player audit
Patrick Mahomes: FSN 19.5, actual about 32.0, difference plus 12.5.
Dak Prescott: FSN 21.5, actual about 29.8, difference plus 8.3.
Brock Purdy: FSN 21.2, actual about 28.5, difference plus 7.3.
Justin Herbert: FSN 19.3, actual about 9.9, difference minus 9.4.
Drake Maye: FSN 19.4, actual about 9.0, difference minus 10.4.
What the audit says about FSN’s DFS model
The wrong conclusion would be that the model went 3-2. Player projections are not binary picks. They are medians inside a distribution of possible outcomes.
FSN’s Week 2 tool also published player floors, ceilings and simulated outcome ranges. That is the more useful framework. Prescott’s 29.8 landed near his 30.3 modeled ceiling. Mahomes smashed through his 28.2 ceiling estimate, an outcome that should be uncommon but not impossible. Maye and Herbert landed in the downside tail.
The purpose of the model is to improve lineup construction across a full slate, not to predict five quarterback box scores to the decimal.
Where the model appears useful
The salary-adjusted value layer deserves credit. Mahomes, Purdy and Prescott were all presented as strong DraftKings values before kickoff and all produced major fantasy scores.
That is more actionable than simply listing the most expensive quarterbacks. It identifies situations where projection and salary are out of balance.
Where the model needs continued scrutiny
Maye and Herbert are reminders that a median projection can hide very different downside paths. Going forward, FSN should compare not only projection error but also how often players fall below the modeled floor, reach the ceiling band and hit salary-adjusted value thresholds.
The site already has the infrastructure for that kind of report card. The goal should be to turn every completed slate into training data and public accountability.
Why FSN should publish these audits every week
A DFS tool becomes more credible when visitors can see yesterday’s projection instead of only tomorrow’s promise.
Week 2 produced three excellent quarterback value calls and two clear misses in this five-player sample. Both sides belong in the record.
FSN takeaway: Mahomes, Prescott and Purdy validated the value layer; Maye and Herbert showed why ranges and downside risk matter. The next step is not to celebrate the hits or hide the misses. It is to measure them every week.
Sources
FSN Week 2 DFS Lineup Builder and projections: https://footballsportsnews.com/nfl/dfs/lineup-builder/week-2-2026/
NFL.com Dak Prescott Week 2 stats: https://www.nfl.com/players/dak-prescott/stats/logs/2026/
NFL.com Brock Purdy Week 2 stats: https://www.nfl.com/players/brock-purdy/stats/logs/2026/
NFL.com Patrick Mahomes Week 2 stats: https://www.nfl.com/players/patrick-mahomes/stats/logs/
NFL.com Drake Maye Week 2 stats: https://www.nfl.com/players/drake-maye/stats/logs/2026/
NFL.com Justin Herbert Week 2 stats: https://www.nfl.com/players/justin-herbert/stats/logs/
DraftKings NFL DFS scoring reference: https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2025/08/27/nfl-dfs-beginners-guide-draftkings/