The SportsLine Projection Model advises fading the Dallas Cowboys for Week 1 NFL survivor pools, projecting a 47% win chance for the New York Giants despite the Cowboys being favorites.
The Survivor Pool Risk
CBS Sports reports that the Dallas Cowboys are considered an extremely risky selection for Week 1 survivor pools. In these formats, picking a team to lose when they are heavily favored can be a strategic advantage, but it requires confidence in the model’s variance.
Model Performance Context
The SportsLine Projection Model is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024.
Dallas’s Recent Form
Quarterback Dak Prescott is entering his 11th season and threw for 4,552 yards and 30 touchdowns with just 10 interceptions last season. However, the Cowboys were on track to make the postseason before losing four of their last five games in 2025.
CBS Sports notes that the Cowboys are just 2-4 over their last six Week 1 games. That puts them in a precarious spot for early-season survival strategies where consistency is key.
What This Means for Pools
The immediate question for pool managers is whether to trust the model’s variance or stick with the safe play of picking the heavy favorite. For those seeking an edge, fading Dallas offers a mathematical opportunity if the Giants can secure a win.